A message for my $TSLA friends eyeing the SpaceX IPO $SPCX.
I traded $TSLA for years. I know the community. I know the excitement when Elon takes something public. But before you chase @SpaceX at $1.75 trillion, read the S-1 carefully.
SpaceX doesn't need your money.
They raised at $800B in private tenders six months ago. They could raise $50B privately tomorrow with a phone call. This IPO isn't about raising capital. It's about giving insiders liquidity.
95% of @SpaceX shares are held by insiders. Only 5% will be publicly traded. Insiders hold $1.66 trillion in paper wealth they currently can't sell. The IPO changes that.
And they've structured it so insiders can sell BEFORE the standard 180-day lock-up expires. @SpaceX built in early release provisions -- after the first earnings report, insiders can sell up to 20% of their shares.
They're also reserving 30% of IPO shares for retail. Ask yourself -- when has Wall Street ever given retail the best seats in the house unless retail was the product?
100x revenue.
$4.9B net loss.
xAI burning $6.4B a year while @Starlink subsidizes it.
This isn't 2020 Tesla at 20x revenue with a clear path to profitability. This is a different risk profile.
Now here's the part I want you to actually consider.
SpaceX's S-1 sizes their satellite-to-phone business (Starlink Mobile) at a $740 billion TAM. Their Connectivity segment does $11.4B at 63% EBITDA margins. Those numbers are real and impressive.
But buried in the S-1, @SpaceX names their D2D competitor: $ASTS .
@AST_SpaceMobile $40 billion market cap.
Not $1.75 trillion. $40 billion.
Here's what $40B buys you:
98.9 Mbps proven from space to unmodified phones (SpaceX does 3-5 Mbps)
The only low-band D2D spectrum access on Earth (indoor coverage SpaceX can't match)
All three US carriers forming a joint venture around ASTS technology
Google invested $358M
their largest public equity holding
AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone as equity investors
$3.5B cash, $1.2B contracted backlog
3,900 patents, custom ASIC in production
Three satellites launching on a Falcon 9 next month
60 carrier partners covering 3 billion subscribers
@SpaceX at $1.75T is pricing perfection across rockets, satellites, AI, and Mars. One miss and it corrects hard.
$ASTS at $40B is pricing uncertainty in a $740B market where the technology is already proven and the carriers have already chosen sides.
The Tesla community knows what it feels like to find a mispriced stock before the world catches on. $TSLA at $30 pre-split wasn't obvious to anyone except the people who did the work.
$ASTS at $106 in a $740B market with 33x faster speeds than SpaceX D2D, a carrier JV, and institutional discovery just beginning -- that's the same kind of setup.
So before you throw money at a $1.75T IPO where insiders are building exit ramps, maybe look at the $40B competitor they named in their own filing.
Not financial advice. Just math.
$ASTS 🛰️
cc @SawyerMerritt@unusual_whales@DanBTC916
Tim Cook and Steve Jobs each spent about 3,600 days as Apple CEO and $AAPL rose more than 1,000% under both.
One built the product. One built the ecosystem.
Breaking: House Republican leaders rejected a Senate-passed bill to fund most of DHS, blocking an effort designed to end TSA staffing shortages https://t.co/z3W2PpPKcu
Air Canada CRJ-900 has collided with a fire truck while landing at La Guardia Airport.
The plane, a Jazz Aviation flight operating on behalf of Air Canada, struck a Port Authority vehicle that was responding a separate incident around 11:40 p.m., according to the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey.
Two sources familiar with the matter said the pilot and copilot on board the passenger plane were badly injured in the late-night collision.
A Port Authority Police Department sergeant and officer had broken limbs and were stabilized at a hospital, they said.
No other major injuries have been reported, the sources said.
The plane was nearing the end of its landing, rolling at about 30 mph, when collision took place, the sources said.
$UBER and $RIVN are partnering to deploy up to 50K autonomous robotaxis with San Francisco and Miami targeted for the first commercial launches in 2028.
Uber will invest up to $1.3B in Rivian through 2031 and the fleet will run exclusively on Uber’s platform.
Key notes on the Eagles here:
- Dallas Goedert is as good as gone
- Mike Evans has been tied to Eagles if they trade AJ
- Eagles are super high on DeVonta Smith
#Eagles