DFS_Dubs

All things sports betting📈

[DFS_Dubs @LoganMcloon]

Fades
• OSU/IND pieces (two top-10 Ds)
• Alabama WRs (top target out)
• LSU passing (Leavitt leads nation in INTs)
• Everything in WIS/UCLA and UK/OU (43.5 totals)

[DFS_Dubs @LoganMcloon]

College football DraftKings Main Slate Cheat Sheet

A thread🧵

[DFS_Dubs @LoganMcloon]

Stacks
1. MIZZ: Simmons + Lee + Roberts (Chambliss bring-back) — 58.5 total, best game on the window
2. SMU: Jennings + pass catchers — home favorite
3. LSU run: Jones + defense-friendly script vs MSST

[DFS_Dubs @LoganMcloon]

Wide Receivers
• Cayden Lee, MIZ ($6.9K) — SEC receiving leader, Simmons' top target
• Charlie Becker, IND ($7.6K) — talented but OSU defense is elite; half-fade
• Rocky Beers, OU ($4.2K) — punt in the 3:30 window

[DFS_Dubs @LoganMcloon]

Quarterbacks
• Trinidad Chambliss, OM ($8.7K) — Heisman favorite, 58.5 total at home
• Keelon Russell, ALA ($8.5K) ✓ — TENN gave up 10.1 YPA to Arch; down top WR
• Kevin Jennings, SMU ($8.2K) ✓ — SMU -9.5 at home
• Austin Simmons, MIZ ($7.1K) — best value arm; 14/1 TD/INT, revenge game
• Nico Iamaleava, UCLA ($6.2K) — cheap, but 43.5 total

[DFS_Dubs @LoganMcloon]

Running Backs
• Jamal Roberts, MIZ ($7.5K) — bellcow, back-to-back 200-yd games
• Dilin Jones, LSU (~$5.5K*) — 80 yds/gm, 5 TDs; MSST just gave up 56
• Texas backs — FLA's defense is beatable (51.5 total)
• Fade: Ole Miss backfield (Lacy hurt, committee)

[DFS_Dubs @LoganMcloon]

Three games tonight, all G5. Couldn't pull posted lines from the books, so check the numbers in yours — these are the sides I'd take:

Max Johnson over passing yards (Ga Southern @ ODU, 7:30) — 262 yds/gm, 5th nationally in completions, three straight 3-TD games, 343 last week. ODU's pass defense is mid-pack and JMU just threw all over them. Volume is locked in at ~37 attempts a game.

T.J. Engleman over rushing yards (ECU @ UAB, 7:30) — 99, 129, 136 the last three weeks at 8.3 a carry, and he's taken the backfield over. UAB is 96th against the run; Navy hung 249 on them.
Ryder Burton under passing yards (UAB) — 140 yds/gm over his last five, more picks than TDs, sacked 16 times. ECU's defense has allowed one passing TD in five games and lives in the backfield. Safest one on the board.

Torrance Burgess over rushing yards (Texas State vs Colorado St, 8:00) — 14-point home favorite, 67.5 total, and the second half should be all clock-killing runs.

[DFS_Dubs @LoganMcloon]

Premier league plus NHL today

Like and follow if tailing!

Let’s cash🔥

[DFS_Dubs @LoganMcloon]

One more I considered: Sabres are +128 dogs in Montreal and the model actually likes them — but they're on a back-to-back too and Dahlin's out tonight, so I'm staying away.

[DFS_Dubs @LoganMcloon]

Some early NHL action — only one early game, 1pm ET:

• Panthers-Sabres under 6.5 — both teams lost 4-1 on Saturday and are on back-to-backs, Florida's games have been trending low-scoring. Tired legs, coin-flip game, take the under.

• Panthers ML (-110) — pick'em price, and Florida's the slightly better team at 2-1-2 vs 2-3 Buffalo

[DFS_Dubs @LoganMcloon]

Tonight's a 16-game Frozen Frenzy slate. Three I like:

• Red Wings ML (-105) vs Devils, 6pm — Devils played at home last night and traveled to Detroit today. Back-to-back plus travel, and Detroit's underlying numbers (8th in expected goals) say 1-3-1 is unlucky.

• Blue Jackets ML (-125) vs Panthers, 6:15pm — Florida played a 1pm grinder in Buffalo yesterday and now skates in Columbus 29 hours later. Same scheduling fade, and the Panthers haven't separated from anyone (2-2-2).

• Oilers ML (-125) vs Kings, 10:30pm — Edmonton 4-0-1, LA 0-2-2 and winless. Sometimes the obvious one is just the one.

[DFS_Dubs @LoganMcloon]

Pretty much on par🔒

[DFS_Dubs @LoganMcloon]

The Buccs are 0-4, down their $165M quarterback, and starting an undrafted rookie at Jerry’s World. The Cowboys are somehow still going to make this a one-score game in the 4th quarter. It's tradition.

[DFS_Dubs @LoganMcloon]

Fridays Best Bets 💎
three plays:
• Guardians ML (-115) vs White Sox, 8pm ET — Messick was excellent in Game 1 (6 Ks in 4.1 IP, 2 runs) and owns a 2.45 ERA at Rate Field this year. Chicago's starting an opener making his 4th career start, and Cleveland's bats finally woke up yesterday.

• Florida State-Louisville over 59 (-110), 7pm ET — FSU puts up 33 a game, Louisville 38+. Louisville ranks 130th against the pass and 90th against the run; FSU just ran for 281 yards at 6.1 a carry. This has 35-31 written all over it.

• Iowa State +10.5 at BYU, 10:15pm ET — BYU's without its top two running backs, Bachmeier threw for 62 yards last week, and Iowa State just hung 45 on West Virginia with Aiden Flora going nuclear. Too many points for a team that can't run the ball right now.

[DFS_Dubs @LoganMcloon]

The build: Double-stack FSU-Louisville (Daniels + Robinson + one Louisville pass-catcher), run it back with Bachmeier or Flora from the late game, and fill the rest with the cheapest warm bodies from the 9pm games.

[DFS_Dubs @LoganMcloon]

Friday night cheat sheet — 5 games, one clear smash spot:
Florida State at Louisville — 7pm ET, ESPN (LOU -3.5, total 59) ⭐ Stack this game
• Ashton Daniels, FSU QB — dual-threat vs the 130th-ranked pass defense (8.0 ypa allowed). Best QB on the slate.
• Duce Robinson, FSU WR — Daniels' downfield guy against that same secondary.
• Ousmane Kromah, FSU RB — lead back with Sam Singleton Jr. out; Louisville is 90th vs the run.
• Lincoln Kienholz, LOU QB — probable and playing; Louisville averages 38+ ppg.
• Tre Richardson / Lawayne McCoy, LOU WRs — the bring-back side. Flag: RB Keyjuan Brown is questionable.
Iowa State at #8 BYU — 10:15pm ET, ESPN (BYU -10.5, total 46.5)
• Bear Bachmeier, BYU QB — LJ Martin is out, so Bachmeier gets more carries himself (130 rush yds, 4 TDs already).
• Legend Glasker, BYU WR — star freshman, ~half the team's receiving production.
• Aiden Flora, ISU RB — 212 rushing yards and 5 total TDs last week (threw 2 TD passes too). GPP hammer.
• Jaylen Raynor, ISU QB — contrarian; BYU is a double-digit favorite but ISU just hung 45 on WVU.
#20 Iowa at Washington — 9pm ET (WASH -3, total 41.5) 🧊 Grind — light exposure
• Iowa's D allows 12.6 ppg, but QB Hank Brown is questionable with a throwing-shoulder sprain. Avoid the Iowa pass game entirely; this total says 24-20 slugfest.
Wyoming at San Jose State / Washington State at Utah State — 9pm ET (totals 42.5, 44) 🧊
• Two lowest totals on the board. Fine for a cheap GPP dart, but don't force it — the FSU-Louisville game has more fantasy points than both combined, probably.

[DFS_Dubs @LoganMcloon]

@TalkinBaseball_ Yankees payroll: ~$300M. Rays payroll: a coupon book and a dream.

[DFS_Dubs @LoganMcloon]

A Yankees fan reached one forearm over the outfield wall and turned a game-tying homer into an RBI double. The Yankees then got swept.

If you ever feel like you don't matter, remember that guy ended a season with one arm.

[DFS_Dubs @LoganMcloon]

What’s the locks for today?

[DFS_Dubs @LoganMcloon]

Kyle Teel getting the White Sox on the board early