The Modern Reindustrialist

Macro, Energy, Critical Minerals & Geopolitics

[The Modern Reindustrialist @LongCopper1]

Wow

[WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧 @WarMonitor3]

Chinese government has reacted with outrage after Britain is to nationalise its steel industries as many of the top owners are Chinese nationals.

What...

[Crémieux @cremieuxrecueil]

This massive shipyard that'll generate mountains of jobs is coming to Texas.

It was originally going to California, but the state was going to saddle it with expensive and complicated union labor requirements, environmental review, taxes, etc.

So, Saronic, welcome to Texas!

[The Modern Reindustrialist @LongCopper1]

Uhhhhh

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

BREAKING: Trump Media to sell "faster access" to President Trump's Truth Social posts, which will let traders and investors pay for real-time feed of Truth Social posts.

[New York Post @nypost]

JPMorgan invests $24M to resurrect rusting US shipyards: 'Arsenal of democracy reignited' https://t.co/idIPI8Ovog

[The Modern Reindustrialist @LongCopper1]

US broker fee = Mineral rights and drone production

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

Trump: Russia ready to make a deal with Ukraine soon.

[The Modern Reindustrialist @LongCopper1]

Well put

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

Warren Buffett on the markets: "Since humans love to gamble so much, there's more money in actually cultivating gamblers than there are cultivating investors.

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

Fed's Williams: I am seeing an explosion of new businesses in the US.

[The Modern Reindustrialist @LongCopper1]

@unusual_whales It’s almost like you can negotiate said tariffs

[U.S. Senator John Fetterman @SenFettermanPA]

China wins. 🇨🇳

[The Modern Reindustrialist @LongCopper1]

@clashreport Why would they not go for the tail rotor

[Nostalgia @nostalgiaa]

If you recognise this, you had a wonderful childhood

[The Modern Reindustrialist @LongCopper1]

@Osint613 Not sure why this wasn’t a primary target in initial airstrikes

[Eyal Yakoby @EYakoby]

BREAKING: The US strikes destroyed a railway bridge on Iran's northern corridor that linked the country to China and Russia.

[Kadi🇪🇪🌻 @TheFl0orIsLaVa]

Ukraine has shut down russia's largest oil refinery.

[The Modern Reindustrialist @LongCopper1]

@BRICSinfo Even though the reasoning for the Iraq war is faulty, you can’t deny they have improved considerably

[Rob Lee @RALee85]

From December:

"But in secret, the Central Intelligence Agency and the U.S. military, with his blessing, supercharged a Ukrainian campaign of drone strikes on Russian oil facilities and tankers to hobble Mr. Putin’s war machine...

As the campaign began to show results, Mr. Ratcliffe discussed it with Mr. Trump. The president seemed to listen to him; they had a frequent Sunday tee time. According to U.S. officials, Mr. Trump praised America’s surreptitious role in these blows to Russia’s energy industry. They gave him deniability and leverage, he told Mr. Ratcliffe, as the Russian president continued to “jerk him off.”

The energy strikes would come to cost the Russian economy as much as $75 million a day, according to one U.S. intelligence estimate. The C.I.A. would also be authorized to assist with Ukrainian drone strikes on “shadow fleet” vessels in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. Gas lines would start forming across Russia."
https://t.co/zdxtFzrg3d

[Craig Kennedy @CraigKennedy77]

Some ominous oil export numbers for Moscow caused by Urals export supply now exceeding firm demand. With the loss of so much refining capacity, Russia is being forced to export more crude and less product. But with the expiry of the US sanctions waiver in mid June, firm demand from India and elsewhere has dropped sharply, causing Urals export volumes to once again exceeding levels of firm demand, as happened back in December-January. Consequently, unsold on-the-water inventories of Russian crude are rising. That supply overhang, in turn, is further widening the Brent-Urals spread, which exceeded $27 in the week up to July 3. Moscow now faces a stark choice: maintain current production levels, and accept $40 Urals FOB prices that will further widen its gaping budget deficit? Or cut production, in hopes that higher Urals price will more than offset lost volumes. Either way, it's more bad news for the Kremlin. @JLeeEnergy https://t.co/5jSwT4lM7h

[The Modern Reindustrialist @LongCopper1]

No games

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

Sec. Rubio in Turkey. No comment needed

[The Modern Reindustrialist @LongCopper1]

@PeterDGardner I’m glad more efficient solutions for panel placement have come along rather than plopping them down in a grassy field

[Alexander Stahel 🌻 @BurggrabenH]

Well, the problem is no longer just logistics. It's volumes too. Period.

Russia's refinery system is now short roughly 200kbpd of gasoline versus domestic demand of around 880kbpd, according to our data, and that is before the overnight strikes on Omsk & YANOS. Diesel is more complicated because of the split between high- and low-sulfur grades, but that market is tightening rapidly too as the agricultural season gets underway.

Overall refinery throughput is down 34% vs our 2022 baseline. At that point, shortages become behavioural as much as physical. There may be enough high-sulfur diesel nationally, but distribution bottlenecks and the usual Russian middlemen games mean some regions and consumers will be favoured over others. Meanwhile, households begin panic buying. That's not a bug. It's a feature of every supply crisis. Once that psychology takes hold, no government can simply decree it away.

@khodorkovsky_en is right that imports from Belarus, Kazakhstan and India can cushion part of the deficit. But they are no silver bullet. Belarus and Kazakhstan have limited export capacity, while imports from farther afield such as India where Rosneft owns partly a plant (China currently does not export products) are slower and more expensive. If Ukraine destroys refinery output faster than Russia can replace it, the deficit simply keeps growing.

This is a dynamic campaign, not a static one. Time is now Ukraine's ally, not the Kremlin's. It is shaping up to be a very long, hot summer for the Kremlin.

@Gerashchenko_en @JayinKyiv @Kasparov63