Matt Fletcher

Actuary and longevity consultant in Aon’s Demographic Horizons team. Expect tweets mostly on mortality and longevity. Can divide by 7.

[Matt Fletcher @longevitymatt]

CMI have saved me a job this week! Here's their version of standardised mortality by week, compared to the range in the equivalent week over the previous 10 years. Care needed again when comparing the latest week to previous analysis, due to Bank Holidays.

[Matt Fletcher @longevitymatt]

@john_actuary @whippletom I played Ding Liren in simultaneous matches a couple of times before he won the World Champs- managed to get a draw in one of them. The secret was to play reasonably good moves and let him blunder a piece for no reason…

[stuart mcdonald @ActuaryByDay]

The CMI has released its weekly mortality monitor.

Age-standardised death rates year to date continue to track the best year on record (2019) fairly closely.

Death rates this week were back at the lower end of the 2011-19 range.

[Matt Fletcher @longevitymatt]

@Jean__Fisch Hmmm will have a think! I know Australia’s 2022 season was very early too but seems to have shifted back towards “normal” in 2023 and 2024 (noting that the “normal” season has a spread around it anyway).

[Matt Fletcher @longevitymatt]

@Jean__Fisch that's quite interesting - flu in the UK 2022-3 definitely came early (peaking in December / January) but 2023-4 not so much (chart from here: https://t.co/PuTXMIglhv).

[stuart mcdonald @ActuaryByDay]

The CMI has released its weekly mortality monitor.

Age-standardised death rates this year have tracked the best year on record (2019) fairly closely and continue to do so. That’s despite deaths with Covid rising this week to the highest level since February.

[Karen Cutter @KarenCutter4]

UK life expectancy for 2021-2023 out today, showing an increase. The Aust figures are due out in about two weeks but will show a decline (our 2023 mortality was worse than our 2020)

[Matt Fletcher @longevitymatt]

@john_actuary @ActuaryByDay @ArielKarlinsky No, I think before then it was strictly only Danny

[Matt Fletcher @longevitymatt]

@ActuaryByDay @ArielKarlinsky Of possible interest - from a pre-pandemic conversation

[Matt Fletcher @longevitymatt]

@dannydorling @ActuaryByDay Absolutely the UK is large enough to estimate life expectancy every 12 months. But the data shows that there are large year on year fluctuations in those estimates. Here's a chart I put together to illustrate year on year changes in LE in the UK.

[Matt Fletcher @longevitymatt]

@ActuaryByDay Who could have predicted that?

[stuart mcdonald @ActuaryByDay]

A big increase in official life expectancy today as 2023 replaces 2020 in the 3-year average used in the calculation.

However, life expectancy remains below pre-pandemic levels (2017-19).

Life expectancy will predictably increase again next year (when 2024 replaces 2021).

[Matt Fletcher @longevitymatt]

@Jean__Fisch Around 2,300 deaths estimated in 2023, across 5 heat episodes: https://t.co/RMjKnd9NDQ

[stuart mcdonald @ActuaryByDay]

Hospital admissions with Covid in England hit another peak in July - the highest since January.

They are now decreasing, with the 7-day average falling by 14% in the last week of July. Hopefully this is now a sustained fall, in contrast to the dip reported at the end of June.

[stuart mcdonald @ActuaryByDay]

Deaths data has been released for week ending 19 Jul.

10,182 deaths were registered in England and Wales this week.

Year-to-date there have been 325,255 deaths registered.

1,344 deaths involved flu or pneumonia. 234 involved Covid-19 - the highest seen since February.

[stuart mcdonald @ActuaryByDay]

Deaths data has been released for week ending 5 Jul.

10,333 deaths were registered in England and Wales this week.

Year-to-date there have been 304,538 deaths registered, 6% fewer than expected by ONS.

CMI analysis of age-standardised mortality rates is expected later today.

[stuart mcdonald @ActuaryByDay]

The CMI has released both its weekly Mortality Monitor and its more detailed quarterly summary.

Mortality in England & Wales in the first half of 2024 was similar to the record lows seen in the first half of 2019.

[Matt Fletcher @longevitymatt]

Hooray - @HigherEdActuary follows me again!

[Matt Fletcher @longevitymatt]

Delays in death registration are always (much) longer for males in this age group than others (e.g. 92 days for 2021) as a significant proportion need to be certified by a coroner. But 114 days is even longer than usual.

[Matt Fletcher @longevitymatt]

Looking a bit more closely at the recently published death registration delays data (https://t.co/QJSuxBUlHU) - for males in the 15-44 age band, the median delay between death and registration is *114 days*! (all other age bands are 6-9 days, females aged 15-44 is 15 days)

[Matt Fletcher @longevitymatt]

It's important to be aware of this as (amongst other things) it impacts on how we understand the extent and timing of excess mortality - for example we know that an unusually high number of deaths that occurred in December 2022 weren't registered until early 2023.

[Matt Fletcher @longevitymatt]

@BristOliver Also Gladiator 2 coming soon, nature is healing...