Long River Holding

I don’t buy stories. I buy cash flows, balance sheets, and mispriced assets. | Yes, I am allergic to bubbles.
$SIRI $JD $NE $LULU $MOH $PGR $POOL $PDD $FNMA

[Long River Holding @longriverCM]

Portfolio Update:

I've been avoiding the high-flying mega-cap starting 2025 December. But that does not mean I stopped buying. Instead, I am opting for cash-generation, asset-heavy businesses, and deeply mispriced cyclical / regulatory plays.

1. Core Compounder: ($BRK.B , $PGR , $POOL , $MOH , $LULU ): Berkshire Hathaway provides defensive diversification, Progressive is a best-in-class underwriter, and Pool Corp dominates its distribution niche. Lululemon adds a high-margin consumer growth element that has faced compressed valuations recently. And $MOH, well, thanks to good ol regulatory news and aftermarket selloff. I was able to accumulate below $120.

2. Commodities & Natural Resources ($DVN , $ET , $PAA, $VTS, $MOS, $EWZ): I do have a macro bet on hard assets, energy infrastructure, and inflation protection. By holding midstream MLPs like Energy Transfer and Plains All American, I plan on locking in high, fee-based distribution yields. Devon gives me direct upstream oil/gas exposure, while Mosaic offers a cyclical play on agricultural nutrients. EWZ (Brazil ETF) adds a heavily commodity-weighted international angle.

3. Healthcare ($PFE, $ADMA, $NUVB): I have a small exposure in healthcare. I call it a mix of deep value and biotech optionality. Pfizer is a classic out-of-favor, high-yield turnaround story. ADMA Biologics represents a rapidly growing specialty plasma company, while Nuvalent is a high-conviction, targeted cancer therapy play.

4. Buffett & Dividends Play ($KHC, $SIRI): Pure, unadulterated value investing. Kraft Heinz is a slow-growth, stable cash-flow giant with strong brand equity. Sirius XM is a heavily shorted, high-free-cash-flow business that has been undergoing major corporate restructuring (via the Liberty Media merger simplification). Thanks to Warren.

5. Housing & Real Estate ($KBH, $PK): Cyclical value. KB Home captures the structural undersupply of U.S. single-family housing. Park Hotels & Resorts is a hospitality REIT levered to group travel and urban lodging recovery. If mortgage rates pull back or stabilize, KBH stands to capture significant pent-up demand, while PK relies on resilient corporate/leisure consumer spending (from worldcup, of course)

6. China / Asia ($PDD, $JD, $SE): E-commerce dominance at an extreme valuation discount. PDD Holdings (Temu/Pinduoduo) has shown staggering operational efficiency and growth, https://t.co/Q8JFfzyxb8 represents deep asset-heavy value, and Sea Limited offers a play on Southeast Asian e-commerce stabilization. From a fundamental perspective, the free cash flow generation here is massive relative to market cap. However, this bucket carries elevated geopolitical risk, regulatory overhangs, and macro headwinds. I've been thinking about this a lot.

7. Financials & Special Situations ($XLF, $FNMA, $FMCC): FNMA and FMCC are pure special situations. They generate billions in net income but remain stuck in government conservatorship. If a political or legal catalyst ever releases them to private capital, the upside is exponential; if not, they remain dead money. It's a textbook asymmetric value bet. The XLF gives me broad banking/financial exposure. Too big to fall is one of my favorite movies.

8. Software Steal ($NOW, $ZETA): ServiceNow is the ultimate workflow backbone of the modern enterprise. The market has hit the broader software space with some "AI disruption" anxiety over the past year, dragging $NOW down from its 52-week highs north of $210 to around the $118–$135 range. Luckily, I grabbed some around 83. Zeta, on the other hand, is my high-beta growth engine. I am happy with both, for now.

Before people start calling me out, I know I am fighting the current market momentum. Because I don't have a massive AI/mega-cap tech exposure, this portfolio will likely underperform in a speculative, liquidity-driven bull market, but it is built to heavily outperform if the market cracks or shifts toward a strict focus on tangible cash flows and low multiples. But hey, I researched all of them, and am happy holding them long-term.

And my cash reserve and $SGOV are still there. :)

[Long River Holding @longriverCM]

@fivepointscap Hahahaha that is a rare combination. 😎

[Long River Holding @longriverCM]

Portfolio Update:

I've been avoiding the high-flying mega-cap starting 2025 December. But that does not mean I stopped buying. Instead, I am opting for cash-generation, asset-heavy businesses, and deeply mispriced cyclical / regulatory plays.

1. Core Compounder: ($BRK.B , $PGR , $POOL , $MOH , $LULU ): Berkshire Hathaway provides defensive diversification, Progressive is a best-in-class underwriter, and Pool Corp dominates its distribution niche. Lululemon adds a high-margin consumer growth element that has faced compressed valuations recently. And $MOH, well, thanks to good ol regulatory news and aftermarket selloff. I was able to accumulate below $120.

2. Commodities & Natural Resources ($DVN , $ET , $PAA, $VTS, $MOS, $EWZ): I do have a macro bet on hard assets, energy infrastructure, and inflation protection. By holding midstream MLPs like Energy Transfer and Plains All American, I plan on locking in high, fee-based distribution yields. Devon gives me direct upstream oil/gas exposure, while Mosaic offers a cyclical play on agricultural nutrients. EWZ (Brazil ETF) adds a heavily commodity-weighted international angle.

3. Healthcare ($PFE, $ADMA, $NUVB): I have a small exposure in healthcare. I call it a mix of deep value and biotech optionality. Pfizer is a classic out-of-favor, high-yield turnaround story. ADMA Biologics represents a rapidly growing specialty plasma company, while Nuvalent is a high-conviction, targeted cancer therapy play.

4. Buffett & Dividends Play ($KHC, $SIRI): Pure, unadulterated value investing. Kraft Heinz is a slow-growth, stable cash-flow giant with strong brand equity. Sirius XM is a heavily shorted, high-free-cash-flow business that has been undergoing major corporate restructuring (via the Liberty Media merger simplification). Thanks to Warren.

5. Housing & Real Estate ($KBH, $PK): Cyclical value. KB Home captures the structural undersupply of U.S. single-family housing. Park Hotels & Resorts is a hospitality REIT levered to group travel and urban lodging recovery. If mortgage rates pull back or stabilize, KBH stands to capture significant pent-up demand, while PK relies on resilient corporate/leisure consumer spending (from worldcup, of course)

6. China / Asia ($PDD, $JD, $SE): E-commerce dominance at an extreme valuation discount. PDD Holdings (Temu/Pinduoduo) has shown staggering operational efficiency and growth, https://t.co/Q8JFfzyxb8 represents deep asset-heavy value, and Sea Limited offers a play on Southeast Asian e-commerce stabilization. From a fundamental perspective, the free cash flow generation here is massive relative to market cap. However, this bucket carries elevated geopolitical risk, regulatory overhangs, and macro headwinds. I've been thinking about this a lot.

7. Financials & Special Situations ($XLF, $FNMA, $FMCC): FNMA and FMCC are pure special situations. They generate billions in net income but remain stuck in government conservatorship. If a political or legal catalyst ever releases them to private capital, the upside is exponential; if not, they remain dead money. It's a textbook asymmetric value bet. The XLF gives me broad banking/financial exposure. Too big to fall is one of my favorite movies.

8. Software Steal ($NOW, $ZETA): ServiceNow is the ultimate workflow backbone of the modern enterprise. The market has hit the broader software space with some "AI disruption" anxiety over the past year, dragging $NOW down from its 52-week highs north of $210 to around the $118–$135 range. Luckily, I grabbed some around 83. Zeta, on the other hand, is my high-beta growth engine. I am happy with both, for now.

Before people start calling me out, I know I am fighting the current market momentum. Because I don't have a massive AI/mega-cap tech exposure, this portfolio will likely underperform in a speculative, liquidity-driven bull market, but it is built to heavily outperform if the market cracks or shifts toward a strict focus on tangible cash flows and low multiples. But hey, I researched all of them, and am happy holding them long-term.

And my cash reserve and $SGOV are still there. :)

[Long River Holding @longriverCM]

Taiwan Stock Market is now down 1.31%.

Hang Seng Index is now down 1.17%.

Nikkei 225 is now down 1.90%

Interesting. I wonder what’s going on now?

[Long River Holding @longriverCM]

Adding two more: $CKHUY and $NE :)

[Long River Holding @longriverCM]

The horses run where echoes lead,

Across the fields of hope and greed.

The fallen rise, the victors fall,

And markets answer neither call.

Yet while the thunder fills the sky,

I watch the road and wonder why:

Must every rider join the race,

When patience, too, can win its place?

[Long River Holding @longriverCM]

@Dboybruh Always bet against Cathy.

[Long River Holding @longriverCM]

This is the type of move that tells me to sell.

[Evan @StockMKTNewz]

Cathie Wood and Ark Invest bought 267,582 shares of Google $GOOGL $GOOG today

[Long River Holding @longriverCM]

I wouldn't be surprised if people are liquidating their crypto assets (bitcoin:native / ethereum:native ) to go big on $SPCX or other AI IPOs.

Or, we are about to see a massive liquidity issue coming our ways.

[Long River Holding @longriverCM]

Broadcom shares $AVGO are wiping out more than $250,000,000,000.00 in market value.

Michael Saylor has an unrealized loss of -$8,342,000,000 on $BTC. Tom Lee has an unrealized loss of -$8,945,000,000 on ethereum:native.

Yet, I am down $1.74 and nobody seems concerned.

[Long River Holding @longriverCM]

@VagabondInvests About 270 or below! And if it drops lower than that, accumulate until it takes 5% of my portfolio.

[Long River Holding @longriverCM]

$KNSL tempting. It’s close to my buy target. 😮‍💨

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

Sam Altman Says OpenAI's Top Token Spender Burns 100 Billion a Month

#tokenmaxxing

https://t.co/0QxhGcWDWl
OpenAI has a culture of token spending. The company reportedly has a token leaderboard, and employees sometimes flex their high totals on X.
https://t.co/oIxLTsiwGo

[Long River Holding @longriverCM]

I am genuinely curious people’s opinion towards $BTC and $ETH. Care to vote on this?

[Long River Holding @longriverCM]

Up to $200 more sounds a bit low in my opinion.

Let’s be conservative on estimate. If it takes $30 a person to fill a tank, with recent price movement of +20%. Now let’s assume this family of 2 fills up on a monthly basis. That’s a jump from $720 to 864.

The real number would definitely be uglier than my estimation.

[Long River Holding @longriverCM]

@JUST_KAWS Fingers crossed

[Long River Holding @longriverCM]

$PDD and $SE are just iconic twins in a way. They somehow move alike and are all mispriced in my opinion.

[Long River Holding @longriverCM]

@WatcherGuru Is he still rolling it forward? 😂

[Long River Holding @longriverCM]

@DeItaone Top is in?

[Long River Holding @longriverCM]

Added $FNMA and $FMCC today. Small add-on.

Added $PDD today. Small add-on.

[Long River Holding @longriverCM]

@Barchart How interesting. So it’s not a softlanding?