Laura

Marketing specialist, DLT believer

Co-founder @Innovion1

[Laura @lor2005]

@AloisIrlmaier @elmocreed NATO has to be dissambled before that (US has started to talk about withdrawal). And probably Eastern Europe will be supporting Russia. This is how Irlmaier prophecies would make sense, Russians arriving in Germany in a few hours. So, definitely not soon.

[Influence360 @theinfluence360]

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[Influence360 @theinfluence360]

Hm, who is she looking at?

[Evan @EvanWritesOnX]

> It’s all theatre.

Yes it is.

Both sides agreed to contain this escalation to selective, pre-agreed targets. If that’s not obvious to you by now, no amount of analysis will bridge the gap. You’re watching the fireworks and thinking it’s the war. It’s not.

> They haven’t harmed the leadership.

They haven’t.

The provisional leadership council is already seated; Pezeshkian the reformist president, Mohseni the judiciary hardliner, and Arafi the ideological placeholder.

Three chairs, all filled, no vacuum.

The state didn’t skip a beat. You just didn’t notice because you’re still refreshing headlines looking for chaos that was never coming.

The leadership is intact. Your understanding of it isn’t.

I’ve said this since day one on this platform. The Axis of Resistance is a faction. It is not the state. It never was. It was a liability portfolio dressed up as an ideology.

You Axis romanticists looked at all of this and called it defeat.

It was divestment.

Iran didn’t lose its proxies. It shed them. There’s a difference, and if you can’t see it, that’s your ceiling, not mine.

> It’s a fake war.

It is a fake war.

Compare this to Ukraine. Hundreds of thousands dead. Markets in freefall. Commodities unhinged for two years. Cities flattened block by block.

Now look at this “war”.

Oil at $73 on the day of a declared war and Hormuz closure. OPEC+ meeting the next morning with pre-positioned supply increases. Saudi Arabia deliberately untouched. Oman, the mediator, completely spared.

Venezuela’s oil secured two months in advance.

Araghchi on American television within hours offering to de-escalate and calling the loss of commanders “not such a big problem.”

This was a controlled demolition dressed as a war. A weekend operation to restructure the Middle East’s power architecture while everyone was watching missile footage on their phones.

> Iran killed its own leadership.

I’ve been saying this since before most of you even understood what the Axis was.

Iran facilitated the removal of Soleimani. Allowed the decapitation of Hezbollah. Let Raisi go. Permitted the systematic elimination of IRGC hardliners. And now, whether Khamenei is dead or simply retired behind a strike narrative,

the last structural obstacle to the pivot has been removed.

The people running Iran tomorrow morning are the same people who were in Geneva on Wednesday offering permanent nuclear concessions. That’s not a coincidence.

That’s the plan.

For the record.

I’m not 100% certain Khamenei was killed.

I am 100% certain it doesn’t matter.

> What’s next

The Axis is finished.

And here’s the part none of you want to hear: so is the version of Israel that depended on the Axis to justify its existence.

Netanyahu needed Iran as the existential threat to hold his coalition together, to justify the permanent war footing, to keep the blank cheque coming from Washington.

That threat just got removed; not by Israel’s strength, but by Iran’s *choice* to dismantle its own militant infrastructure in exchange for economic integration.

Israel got its victory photo.

Iran got its exit.

The GCC got the stable neighbourhood it needs for Vision 2030.

And the rest of you got played, by every side, simultaneously.

What comes next is normalisation.

Sanctions relief.

Iranian oil back on global markets.

Saudi-Iran economic integration.

A GCC-brokered regional security framework that constrains both Tehran and Tel Aviv.

The defence industry pivots from selling missiles to selling reconstruction contracts.

The money doesn’t stop. It just changes direction.

This was never about who wins the war.

Anyone followed me long enough knows i’ve never changed my tune. I’ve always said all of this.

[Evan @EvanWritesOnX]

Anyone not paying attention,

the IRGC has been systematically decapitated.

Soleimani (2020).

Salami (June 2025).

Now Pakpour, the defence minister, and multiple intelligence chiefs, all in a single morning.

This is the sequential elimination of every IRGC leader capable of consolidating independent military power.

What remains of the IRGC after today is an institution with enormous assets but no unified command chain.

The pragmatist faction was pre-positioned.

Pezeshkian survived the June 2025 strikes. Araghchi was in Geneva 48 hours ago with “sufficient support and authority” to negotiate a comprehensive deal.

Shamkhani himself, Khamenei’s senior adviser, publicly stated that the terms align with Khamenei’s own fatwa against nuclear weapons.

The civilian-diplomatic apparatus was already authorised to make the concessions.

The only question was whether the hardliner security apparatus would permit it.

That apparatus just got destroyed.

I think now,

Iran’s succession will produce a collective leadership dominated by the pragmatist faction, likely with Ali Larijani or a figure of similar profile as the transitional authority. Larijani is an Iranian nationalist, not an Islamist ideologue.

He has bureaucratic competence, global fluency, and the institutional relationships to hold the system together.

The IRGC will be represented but not dominant.

The new leadership’s first act will be to accept the ceasefire and signal willingness to resume talks,
not because they’ve surrendered, but because the structural obstacles to the deal (hardliner veto power) have been physically removed.

The narrative Iran will tell its own people:

“The Supreme Leader was martyred. Our commanders were martyred. We struck back at every American base in the region. We closed Hormuz. We proved our strength. And now, from a position of defiance and sacrifice, we choose peace, not because we are weak, but because we honour the blood of our martyrs by securing Iran’s future.”

This narrative works.

It is the only narrative that can hold Iran together domestically while executing the pivot that Geneva already outlined.

The war was not about Iran alone.

Remember this.

It was about reconfiguring the entire Middle Eastern security and economic architecture.

We are going to see formal bilateral security pact within 12 months, a framework for mutual non-aggression, trade normalisation, and coordination on energy pricing within OPEC.

Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 requires regional stability. Iran’s economic survival requires GCC investment.

The incentives are perfectly aligned.

Israel’s political system will reset.

Netanyahu claimed his “existential threat” victory. Whether he survives politically or not is secondary, his coalition is already finished.

What matters structurally is that Israel’s freedom of unilateral military action becomes constrained within the new regional architecture.

The GCC states that absorbed Iranian missiles today are not going to tolerate another round.

The price of US-Israeli military cooperation going forward will be integration into a framework that includes Arab security guarantees, and limitations on Israeli operations that destabilise the neighbourhood.

The post-Netanyahu government, whatever its composition, will negotiate its entry into a broader regional normalisation framework, building on the Abraham Accords but now including Saudi Arabia and potentially a post-Khamenei Iran.

I’ve said this before. The day is coming where Iran and Israel normalize.

The GCC will become the centre of gravity.

This is the most important structural outcome.

Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Oman emerge from this crisis as the indispensable diplomatic, economic, and energy brokers of the region.

They absorbed the strikes. They preserved the mediating channels. They pre-positioned the oil supply. They will host the reconstruction.

…

[Evan @EvanWritesOnX]

What people thought America could be - a beacon of democracy - was the last thing it became. In reality, it’s a corporate machine that has given rise to the Transnational Private Sector (TPS).

The TPS is a coalition of corporate giants, led by the Financial-Industrial Complex (FIC) with firms like JPMorgan, Goldman, and BlackRock, alongside the Military-Industrial Complex (MIC), Consumer-Industrial Complex (CIC), and Techno-Industrial Complex (TIC).

This collective force operates beyond borders, transcends nationality, and prioritizes profit over public welfare.

When Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan’s CEO, warned in October 2024 that wars in Ukraine and the Middle East could destabilize the global economy, he wasn’t just forecasting. He was asserting the TPS’s dominance over policy.

To understand this power, you have to examine the game theory driving the TPS’s clash with nations.

This concept that I have developed deliberately sets aside the idea of good, evil, right, or wrong. Geopolitical dynamics are examined through the lens of incentives, power, and measurable outcomes, not moral judgments. The focus is the strategic interplay of actors, stripped of ethical narratives.

___

Game theory provides a framework for understanding geopolitical strategies by analyzing the incentives that drive actors�� decisions.

There are two distinct game types: finite and infinite. Both these games shape global interactions. Finite games are zero-sum with defined endpoints, and clear winners and losers. It’s akin to a corporate quarter where profit maximization is the sole objective.

One player wins, the other loses.

Infinite games, conversely, lack a conclusion, have no end, prioritizing sustained participation through long-term stability, akin to a nation’s multi-generational survival strategy.

States operate within infinite games.

They do not expire. They do not tap out.

Their permanence compels them to prioritize enduring stability over immediate gains. For instance, China’s $1 trillion Belt and Road Initiative, spanning decades, secures global trade networks to ensure long-term economic influence. BRICS nations, through $10 billion in yuan-based trade, foster mutual economic resilience for mutual prosperity.

This cooperative approach engenders a form of morality rooted in reciprocity: mutual support today ensures mutual survival tomorrow. Such strategies reflect a commitment to societal development and stability, as states must maintain legitimacy and resources for their populations over time.

The TPS operates as a corporate entity, fundamentally detached from societal obligations. Unlike states, the TPS bears no responsibility to citizens, public welfare, or long-term development. Its imperative is profit maximization within finite time horizons, driven by shareholder demands and market cycles.

This corporate structure compels the TPS to engage in finite games, where immediate financial returns supersede all else. For example, the TPS’s imposition of significant tariffs on global nations in 2025 aimed to secure economic leverage, prioritizing short-term gains over regional stability. Such actions reflect a rational, amoral calculus: profit is the sole metric, unburdened by considerations of societal impact or ethical norms.

Finite games, by their nature, foster amorality. The TPS’s focus on short-term victories - such as market dominance through military coercion, currency wars, tariffs, and resource extraction - disregards long-term consequences, as corporate entities are not accountable for societal fallout.

In contrast, infinite games cultivate morality through sustained cooperation, as states must invest in trust to ensure their longevity.

The TPS has been playing finite-game rules in an infinite-game arena. When this happens, we have a mixed, unbalanced game.

A mixed game provokes backlash.

Picture a player disobeying the rules.

That's your TPS.

And it is banding states together against it to rebalance the game. The BRICS formation or the systematic de-dollarization initiatives are a strategic response, realigning global power to counter TPS dominance.

It's the game recorrecting itself.

This interplay of mixed-game dynamic is where the TPS’s amoral, zero-sum, profit-driven maneuvers clash with states’ cooperative, stability-oriented strategies.

A payoff matrix illustrates this easily.

1. The TPS secures immediate profits but risks isolation as states band together.

2. States achieve gradual stability but sacrifice short-term gains.

The TPS’s corporate nature - unencumbered by societal duties - locks it into finite games, while states’ obligations to their populations drive infinite-game cooperation.

This tension, rooted in divergent incentives, underscores the global struggle between short-term profiteering and long-term resilience, setting the stage for the TPS’s operational framework.

___

What is the TPS?

Picture the TPS as a colossal corporate skyscraper, its gleaming glass facade reflecting trillions in valuation that makes entire economies appear as a speck of dust.

At its pinnacle, the FIC - JPMorgan, Goldman, BlackRock, Vanguard, etc. - occupies the C-suite, a sleek executive suite where profit reigns supreme.

Below, the building hums with activity: the MIC (Lockheed , Raytheon, etc.) fortifies the security wing, the CIC (Exxon, Coca-Cola, Pfizer, Walmart, etc.) drives the bustling sales floor, and the TIC (Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, etc.) powers the innovation labs.

Each department operates with calculated precision, yet all answer to the FIC’s shareholder-driven directives, tethered to a singular goal: maximizing returns, unbound by borders or public welfare.

This skyscraper’s foundation is the United States, not as a sovereign nation but as a subjugated platform, meticulously engineered to amplify the TPS’s global reach. Decades of deregulation - culminating in the 1999 Glass-Steagall repeal - dismantled barriers, granting the FIC unchecked freedom to amass trillions.

Tax breaks and billions in defense budgets fuel the machine, while the US government, reduced to an extension of the TPS, prioritizes corporate efficiency over its citizens.

These American citizens are left to navigate the fallout. Mounting debt, eroding wages, while the TPS pursues wealth on a global stage. The Federal Reserve, calibrating monetary policy to stabilize markets, stands ready to pivot when BRICS’s multipolar trade order emerges, ensuring the TPS remains a formidable force in a restructured economy.

Unlike states, bound to their people and long-term development, the TPS owes nothing to society. Its corporate essence - divorced from public accountability - drives its finite-game strategy, where profit trumps all. This skyscraper doesn’t serve nations; it commands them, reshaping the global order to its design.

Let’s rewind back to the post-World War II era, when the MIC commanded the C-suite of the TPS. In those days, the MIC titans like Lockheed Martin and Raytheon held the ultimate power, with ample defense budgets out of taxpayer pockets fueling a war machine that defined America’s global reach. Fresh off its victory as a superpower, the US wielded unmatched military might, and the MIC capitalized on this dominance to shape foreign policy.

Every contract, every missile, reinforced its grip.

When nations resisted the TPS’s economic orbit, the MIC responded with unrelenting force. Iraq’s Saddam Hussein dared to sell oil in euros in 2000; by 2003, a NATO-led invasion, backed by $100 billion in MIC contracts, dismantled his regime, securing $500 billion in oil reserves. Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi pushed anti-dollar policies in 2011; NATO’s barrage, fueled by $160 billion in oil deals, reduced his government to rubble. The MIC’s dominance stemmed from a simple truth: war was profitable, and its C-suite reign ensured the TPS thrived on conflict, unburdened by societal costs.

The tide started to shift in the 1980s, as financial deregulation reshaped the skyscraper’s power structure. The 1999 Glass-Steagall repeal, among other reforms, unleashed the FIC to amass unprecedented wealth, with their trillions in collective asset pool out-sizing economies by the 2000s. The FIC mastered hedging, by betting on every market outcome - guaranteeing profits whether markets soared or crashed.

Unlike the MIC, reliant on wars, or the CIC, vulnerable to disruptions, the FIC thrived in any climate, pocketing billions in equities trading during stability or significant derivatives profits amid chaos. By 2015–2020, the FIC, sensing greater collective returns, orchestrated a quiet coup, redirecting the TPS toward diplomacy through billions in Gulf energy deals that bolstered TIC’s innovation and CIC’s margins.

The FIC is unique in the sense that its role transcends coordination. It hedges against its own departments, ensuring profits even if they falter. If the CIC’s retail collapses or the MIC’s wars misfire, the FIC shorts their stocks, securing significant derivatives profits. This ruthless pragmatism drives its push for Middle East stability, as war disrupts the lucrative Gulf partnerships. The FIC is also accelerating the BRICS’s $10 billion yuan-based trade order, positioning itself to profit in a multipolar future.

Consequently, within the TPS skyscraper, an inner game theory unfolds - cooperative yet fiercely competitive.

When cooperative, the TPS is absolutely devastating. In Iraq, Libya, and Ukraine, the MIC’s destruction paved the way for CIC’s cheap imports and FIC’s oil bets, reaping billions while nations crumbled. It threatens Iran with MIC-led war to sweeten billions in Gulf deals, boosting TIC’s tech contracts. It instigates currency wars on Turkey, devaluing the lira, so CIC’s Marriott locks in tourism profits.

Competitively, the FIC wields departments as leverage. It will coordinate with other departments for collective gain but it will also defect for better return on investment. It will conduct tariffs adversely affecting the CIC if it means vassalizing states in the future. It possesses calculated pragmatism capable of supplanting the MIC’s warlord era to steer the skyscraper toward stable profits in any climate.

Not just wars and destruction.

___

Today, the FIC commands the C-suite, and it is orchestrating a strategic trifecta that reshapes the global order with calculated precision.

From its executive suite, the FIC surveys a world in flux, deploying three interconnected maneuvers.

Consolidation. Vassalization. BRICS alignment.

The goal?

To secure unrivaled dominance in a multipolar world.

Each move, executed with the amoral pragmatism of a finite-game strategist, positions the TPS to thrive in the present while engineering a lucrative foothold in the emerging future.

First, the TPS consolidates power within the US, its subjugated platform, by acquiring struggling small and medium enterprises (SME's) battered by tariffs and policies championed by its FIC mouthpiece, President Trump. In 2025, these tariffs - essentially taxes on imports - have spiked costs, squeezing SMEs reliant on global supply chains. The FIC, sensing opportunity, sweeps in, buying up these firms at bargain prices, folding them into the TPS’s vast empire. This consolidation strengthens the CIC and TIC, ensuring the skyscraper’s domestic foundation remains robust while smaller players falter. It’s a ruthless finite-game play: the TPS absorbs weakened assets, bolstering its retail engine without regard for local communities or economic equity.

Second, the TPS vassalizes vulnerable nations, tightening its global grip. Tariffs targeting over 20 export-dependent countries - not accounting for the EU - have crippled their economies, crashing markets and eroding confidence. The FIC steps forward with predatory aid, offering loans and significant bond investments, like BlackRock’s new stake in German bonds last quarter, to stabilize budgets. These lifelines come with ironclad strings: debt binds nations to TPS agendas, transforming them into exploitation hubs stripped of autonomy. Governments, desperate to survive, cede control over resources and policies, their sovereignty reduced to a footnote in the FIC’s ledger. This vassalization mirrors the MIC’s historical conquests but swaps bombs for bonds, a subtler yet equally devastating finite-game victory.

Third, the TPS accelerates the rise of a BRICS-led trade order, not as a rival but as a future arena for profit. By fracturing the dollar’s dominance through tariffs, the FIC paves the way for BRICS’s $10 billion yuan-based trade system, a multipolar framework gaining traction. This is no accident. The TPS is positioning itself to dominate this new order. Investments like significant stakes in BRICS bonds and billions in Gulf partnerships ensure the FIC’s influence spans both systems. The Federal Reserve, attuned to this shift, stands poised to recalibrate monetary policy when the time comes, keeping the TPS’s financial arsenal sharp. In vassalized nations, the TPS entrenches itself, ready to dictate terms when BRICS consolidates.

The TPS’s trifecta is operating with surgical precision and chilling efficiency. Small and medium enterprises, crushed by tariffs, vanish into the TPS’s portfolio, bolstering its domestic empire. Export-dependent nations, along with Europe, kneel under the weight of FIC debt with their economies reeling, reduced to vassalized hubs serving corporate whims. The BRICS’s new trade order, quietly fueled by the TPS’s tariff-driven fracture of the dollar system, rises with the FIC’s fingerprints all over it.

This is game theory’s mixed-game dynamic unfolding: the TPS’s finite-game trifecta pursuing immediate profits, where its amoral payoff structure prioritizes short-term dominance over societal stability.

Yet, each of these zero-sum moves provokes states to embrace the infinite-game cooperation model.

The BRICS’s trade bloc iterates strategies to counter TPS hegemony, by seeking long-term equilibrium through reciprocal trust. The FIC, anticipating this, adopts a dominant strategy: hedging with Gulf partnerships and BRICS bonds by dangling MIC threats to profit in any outcome.

The FIC envisions a future of a restructured skyscraper, with its C-suite commanding a BRICS-aligned trade order, with vassalized states as mere cogs in the machine.

This isn’t adaptation.

It’s the TPS leveraging finite-game aggression and infinite-game foresight to rewrite the global rules once again, ensuring its dominance in a multipolar world.

[Laura @lor2005]

16/ And that tells you where this is heading:

Money is splitting into versions. Not only by currency…
…but by rules, control, and who takes the risk.

[Laura @lor2005]

1/ Tether used to be simple:

USDT = a digital dollar.

Now it’s turning into a 3-lane highway, because rules are splitting the market.

👇 Here’s the clean breakdown.

[Laura @lor2005]

15/ Bottom line:

Tether isn’t just “USDT” anymore.

It’s turning into a menu:
USAT for regulated US rails
USDT for global flexibility
XAUT for gold exposure