Lorenzo78

"Nessun vento è favorevole per il marinaio che non sa dove vuole andare "
“There is no favorable wind for the sailor who doesn’t know where to go”
Lucius Seneca

[Conks @conksresearch]

peak basis trade innit

[Lorenzo78 @Lor_sailing]

@Einstein_psg Aucune révolution mon amie Français... Sacchi, Zeman, Zaccheroni... ils le faisaient déjà dans les années fin 80, tout le 90: Pressing total à commencer avec les attaquants, et la ligne de défense tellement haute qu'elle se situait presque sur la ligne médiane, pour le hors-jeu..

[Velina Tchakarova @vtchakarova]

Brutal. Just brutal.

[Taya Bass @travelingflying]

Christopher Hitchens: ”In 1786, when the United States was barely a country, it was having its sailors taken as slaves by the Barbary states, the states of the Ottoman Empire and North Africa. Tripoli, shores of Tripoli. Ships stopped, its crews carried off into slavery. We estimate 1.5 million European and American slaves taken between 1750 and 1815.

Jefferson and Adams went to their ambassador in London and said, why do you do this to us? The United States has never had a quarrel with the Muslim world of any kind. We weren't in the crusades. We weren't at war with Spain. Why do you do this to our people and our ships? Why do you plunder and enslave our people? The ambassador said very plainly, Mr. Abdul Rahman said, because the Quran gives us permission to do so, because you are infidels, and that's our answer. Jefferson said, well, in that case, I will send a navy which will crush your state, which he did.

Islamic fundamentalism is not created by American democracy. It's a lie to say so. It's a masochistic lie, and it excuses those who are the real criminals, and blames us for the attacks made upon us.”

[Kuppy @hkuppy]

Neighborhood billionaire running ~$75b goes on TV to raise capital from bearish investors. Gets laughed at by “TV Personalities.” Gets last laugh. Video passed around as inflows accelerate all weekend. Brilliant marketing…

[Lorenzo78 @Lor_sailing]

https://t.co/bKMy2tCzND
@matteorenzi

[Massimo @Rainmaker1973]

The stock market you don’t know about.

[George Noble @gnoble79]

I was 26 years old when Peter Lynch handed me this.

April 28, 1983. I was the auto and retail analyst at Fidelity.

Peter was in his prime, on his way to building the greatest mutual fund track record in history:

29.2% annual returns for 13 YEARS STRAIGHT, growing Magellan from $18 million to $14 billion. The Babe Ruth of investing.

I'm looking at the principles he had typed up on a single sheet of paper that I've kept in my files for 42 years and I believe now is the perfect time to revisit them again.

Let me walk you through a few:

Rule 1B: "You need an edge to make money. Do not rely on a combination of hope and good luck."

Today's retail investor has no edge. He has Reddit, Robinhood, zero-DTE options and a TikTok algorithm pushing him into whatever stock just ripped 200% the day before.

That's hope and good luck wearing a fancy costume.

Rule 1E: "Purchase stocks like one would purchase a business."

Tesla trades at over 360 times earnings on a business deteriorating in real time, Oracle has $206 billion in liabilities against $39 billion in equity, MicroStrategy is a leveraged Bitcoin holding company priced like a software firm, and don't even get me started on SpaceX, that piece of garbage you'll be able to trade tomorrow...

Nobody in their right mind would buy these as actual businesses. They buy them as stories, narratives, and lottery tickets.

Peter would have called it the same way I do - these are not investments. They are speculations. GAMBLING.

Rule 1G: "Study the balance sheet and cash flow statement."

The hyperscalers spent over $380 billion on AI capex in 2025. Goldman says the measurable productivity payoff does not arrive until 2027 at the earliest.

Oracle just reported NEGATIVE $23.7 billion in free cash flow for fiscal 2026 while borrowing at a pace that would make a leveraged buyout firm nervous. The cash flow statements are screaming but nobody is reading them.

Rule 1I: "Avoid the long shot."

This one cuts the deepest.

The entire market has become a long shot.

OpenAI is projected to post roughly $74 billion in operating losses in 2028 ALONE while priced for transformation tomorrow. Bitcoin treasury companies are multiplying off thin air.

The retail investor of 2026 is making one long-shot bet after another and calling it a portfolio.

Rule 3A: "When the fundamentals change, sell your mistakes."

Tesla's fundamentals have changed.

California registrations are down 24% year over year and inventory days went from 10 to 27. Musk himself admitted on the last earnings call that Hardware 3 cannot achieve unsupervised FSD, breaking a promise made to 4 million customers.

The fundamentals have screamed change. But the stock is still at $385.

The mistakes are not being sold. They are literally being doubled down on with leverage.

Rule 3I: "A 30-50% profit in 12 months is great. Mediocre in three years."

Today's retail crowd expects 30-50% in a WEEK. Then they wonder why they get wiped out the second the hype stops.

And my favorite - Rule 3J: "Develop your own style and stick to it."

That is the entire game right there.

I developed mine sitting across the hall from Peter Lynch in 1983, watching him work, reading his notes, getting my own research handed back to me covered in his pencil marks. Then in 1984, my first full year managing money, I ran the #1 mutual fund in America. The Fidelity Overseas Fund was top 2 for the next six years running.

I did not get there by chasing narratives. I got there by following the sheet of paper you are looking at right now.

42 years later, this single page contains more wisdom than every Fintwit thread, CNBC segment, and Wall Street price target combined.

Peter retired in 1990 with the greatest mutual fund record in history. Then he sat down and wrote books explaining exactly how he did it.

Only a few "investors" these days read them.

And almost nobody is reading the balance sheets, the cash flow statements, or studying actual businesses today either.

They are chasing AI, crypto, and whatever pumped yesterday.

The wisdom on this page is timeless and it's more important than ever.

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb]

For Aristotle, the banausos is not just physically deformed by his profession, but politically and ethically stunted: specialization makes him less a complete man than a TOOL of his occupation.
Politics, book VII:
"And any occupation, art, or science, which makes the body or soul or mind of the freeman less fit for the practice or exercise of virtue, is vulgar; wherefore we call those arts vulgar which tend to DEFORM the body, and likewise all paid employments, for they absorb and degrade the mind."

[Lorenzo78 @Lor_sailing]

@Briviagra Dr. @yanisvaroufakis , because even if we're not on similar political spectrum, I always listen and respect your views. I'd like to see a fair and honest debate on this green-transition topic and how EU Talinanised it, raised by this french researcher.

[Lorenzo78 @Lor_sailing]

@jfazli @TennisTV @janniksin By the amount of hairs on your head, you know what you are talking about with those juices...

[Lorenzo78 @Lor_sailing]

@MAGACult2 @TranslateMom italian
+ your language

[L'Espresso @espressonline]

L'annessione della Cisgiordania, con i soldati complici dei coloni. Gaza annientata. L'avanzata in Libano. Il confine violato in Siria. La guerra all'Iran. Pulizia etnica e massacri. Così la destra sionista dà forma al Grande Israele

Il numero de L’Espresso, in edicola e su app

[Kim Dotcom @KimDotcom]

Fellate the donkey for Bibi 🤣

[Sony Thăng @nxt888]

James Baldwin said it fifty years ago and it has not aged a single day:

"Not everything that is faced can be changed. But nothing can be changed until it is faced."

The American empire has produced a population that is, in significant part, constitutionally unable to face.

Not stupid. Not evil. Unable to face.

There is a difference.

They were given a story so total, so woven into their education and entertainment and national ritual, that facts which contradict it do not land as information.

They land as attack.

This is what empire does to the people it claims to serve.

It doesn't just extract resources from the Global South.

It extracts honesty from its own citizens.

It gives them comfort and takes their capacity for clear sight.

And then it needs them to stay comfortable, because the moment they can actually see, the whole arrangement becomes very difficult to justify.

[Lorenzo78 @Lor_sailing]

@Jkylebass @FrankLuntz @nickhedley Sei un esaltato ignorante, guerrafondaio da poltrona.
La storia millenaria dell'Europa, del Mediterraneo, Italiana è legata indissolubilmente anche alla Persiana. Non avete salvato nessuno. Siete solo gli ultimi egemoni, ma il vostro Ciclo avrà una fine, come quelli prima di voi.

[giorgio bianchi @Giorgioaki]

Per confermare ancora una volta la veridicità, di più, l'infallibilità del detto "Al peggio non c'è mai fine", becchiamoci il nuovo astro luminoso della "sinistra": Silvia Salis.

Il ceto semicolto, i Repubblichini, nel senso di Repubblica, Propaganda live, i fighetti milanesi ecc... la venerano tipo Madonna di Loreto. Ed è giustissimo così. Silvia Salis incarna nell'immagine, nelle idee (chiamiamole così) tutto ciò che la sinistra moderna adora:

È ricca, borghese fino al midollo, di quelle con la casa da 2 milioni di euri, piena zeppa di uova Fabergé. La sua sola presenza scaccia la puzza degli odiatissimi poveri, degli operai volgari con l'ascella pezzata. Ha i titoli, tanti titoli, cassettoni pieni di titoli. Volete un titolo? Toh! Ce l'ha.

Lei è la donna perfetta per il massacro sociale elegante, per il riarmo con tutti i congiuntivi al posto giusto, per la lotta al patriarcato, che sarà abbattuto con uno speciale flit a tiratura limitata, griffato Chanel. Inoltre non ha inflessioni dialettali, cosa importantissima.

Renzi, paragonato a questa, è Che Guevara.

Alberto Scotti

[Simon Ateba @simonateba]

Man Claims Trump Conned MAGA, says, "You didn't get a wall. You didn't get any arrests. You didn't get 'Drain the Swamp or America First.' You didn't get any new infrastructure, no $5,000 Doge check. You didn't eliminate any national debt or get any help buying a new home or help with lower grocery prices or gas prices. I mean, quite the opposite, in fact. You didn't get a $2,000 stimulus check or affordable health care or any accountability for the Epstein files, which he promised when he said he was going to release them all to the public. And you damn sure didn't get any. No more wars. Now, what you got was conned, and you're too embarrassed to admit it."

[Todd Jones 🦊 @toddrjones]

Here are some ways in which the world has gotten better.

[Fidias Panayiotou @Fidias0]

EU Sanctions Pro-Palestine Journalist @hussedogru