Someone found an insane Easter Egg in the Terafab video that SpaceX released earlier today. Elon appears to have confirmed that the circle is a particle accelerator that will be used for Free Electron Laser lithography.
Reminder that if you're not on X, you're missing out on everything that's happening.
FEL lithography is an alternative way of generating extreme ultraviolet (EUV) light for advanced semiconductor manufacturing. Basically, SpaceX is going to eat ASML's lunch.
Power is THE binding constraint.
Data centers are being shut down, GPUs are sold out, models are being commoditized and spot rates are rising all leads to power being critical. Not fanciful plans for power, future forecasts of BTM or distributed batteries blah blah blah but energized power today.
This means the following hierarchy is developing from greatest to least value:
1. Hyperscaler
2. Neocloud
3. Model maker
Ideally, you are 1+3 (Google, SpaceX, Meta) where you own massive power today and have a leading set of models to keep API pricing from 3rd parties honest enough to benefit them vs the model maker. But even if you are just (1), you can still extract great economics from (3) because owning the power is the leverage.
This means (2) needs to scale up fast. If Neoclouds do not scale up fast and move up the value stack towards hyperscalers (solely measured by energized compute online today) they are going to leave a lot of revenue on the table which will complicate their long term financing plans.
Also, starting now, a neocloud’s real competitors will be well capitalized frontier model companies who will do sweetheart deals with (1) and/or will vertically integrate and try to become (1). You can see this in the fact pattern (Ant+AWS, OAI+Stargate).
Get your hands on power.
It’s the spice.
I have made MILLIONS trading the AI Sector Rotation
Print this. Keep this. It’s how the next Millions will be made.
My Secret to catching it early?
Following the Sector ETF’s for strength and weakness
AI Ecosystem
• $AIQ: $AMD $INTC $SKHY
Semiconductors
• $SMH: $NVDA $TSM $AVGO
Memory
• $DRAM: $MU $SNDK $WDC
Photonics
• $EUV: $LITE $COHR $AAOI
Software
• $IGV: $PLTR $NOW $ORCL
Cybersecurity
• $CIBR: $CRWD $PANW $FTNT
AI Infrastructure
• $WGMI: $IREN $CORZ $HUT
Data Centers
• $DTCR: $EQIX $DLR $VRT
Physical AI
• $BOTZ: $ISRG $CGNX $TSLA
Space & Defense
• $ARKX: $RKLB $KTOS $SPCX
Nuclear
• $NLR: $CEG $CCJ $OKLO
Quantum
• $QTUM: $IONQ $RGTI $QBTS
Capital rotates through sectors long before most investors notice.
This is how we will catch them early.
I needed to move a sofa.
I mentioned this to an American. He said, "You know anybody with a truck?"
I did not know anybody with a truck.
He looked at me with real concern. Not pity. Concern. The way you look at a man who has told you he does not have a name.
"You gotta know somebody with a truck."
I asked how one acquires such a person.
He said, "You just do."
This is the third time I have received that answer in this country. It is the answer to everything here. You just do. There is no process. There is only the eventual fact of having.
He said, "Ask Kevin."
I do not know a Kevin. He said Kevin like I should. He said it the way you say a shared uncle.
I met Kevin four days later. Kevin owns a truck. Kevin does not own a truck for himself. Nobody owns a truck for themselves. Kevin owns a truck for a fifteen mile radius.
Inside I said: THIS MAN HAS TAKEN A VOW. HE DID NOT ANNOUNCE IT. HE SIMPLY PURCHASED A BED AND ACCEPTED THE CONSEQUENCES.
Kevin arrived on Saturday. He brought the truck. He also brought a second man.
I had not asked for a second man.
The second man's name is Tony. Tony came because Kevin came. Tony did not know me. Tony did not ask what we were moving. Tony brought gloves.
They moved the sofa in eleven minutes.
I offered them money. Both of them laughed at the same time, which felt rehearsed and was not.
I asked what I owed them.
Kevin said, "Buy the pizza."
That is the price. That is the entire economy. The truck costs one pizza and the pizza is not negotiable and the pizza is also not expensive and everyone knows what size.
Inside I said: THE FEE IS FIXED ACROSS THE ENTIRE NATION AND WAS SET BY NO ONE.
We ate on the floor because the sofa was against the wall and none of us wanted to be the first to sit on it.
Tony told me his daughter plays soccer. I asked if she is good. He said, "She's aggressive."
I still think about that.
Three weeks later, Kevin texted me.
"You free Sunday? Helping Tony move a fridge."
He did not ask if I wanted to. He informed me of a fridge.
Inside I said: I HAVE BEEN CALLED UP. I DID NOT ENLIST. THE PAPERS WERE FILED ON MY BEHALF.
I went. I moved the fridge. I have no truck. I contributed only arms.
Afterward, a man I had never met asked me if I knew anybody with a truck.
I said, "Yeah, I got a guy."
I have a guy.
I am somebody's guy now, too. Tony has told two people about me.
He describes me as "the guy who's strong for his size."
I have never been prouder of a sentence in my life.
Midjrouney v8.2 prompt
Conceptual brutalist pavilion on a cliffside, volumetric shadows, concrete patina, cinematic fog, 16mm lens photography style—colossal high cliff waterfall.
The key was the parameter's use and profile combo
The AI Singularity
The argument goes like this:
1. Humans build an AGI.
2. The AGI becomes good at AI research.
3. It designs a smarter AI.
4. That smarter AI designs an even smarter AI.
5. The cycle repeats faster and faster.
Looking at the results and capabilities from the various labs over the past few weeks I would say we are firmly in this loop now.
The next 18months will be wild.
Recursive self improvement will dramatically increase capability very quickly from here.
Marginal costs of all models will go to ~$0.