This April/May move on altcoins was basically a tiny echo bubble for coins that went crazy in late 2024 and then died in Q1 :
Memecoins
AI agent coins
VIRTUAL
SUI
The other top-performers are either revenue-generating projects or pure memes :
HYPE AAVE SYRUP
FARTCOIN SPX
Both $DYM and $SAGA traded at $7bn-$8bn FDV at their top, quickly after their launch
If they had launched today, they would probably have topped at $700M-$800M FDV, ten times lower
$TIA :
100 days from $2 to $20
475 days to roundtrip the whole move
When a pump is massive enough to offer a lot of mindshare and volume to a token, the time it will take to retrace the move can get very elongated
Elevator up, stairs down
This illustrates one of the risks of shorting in crypto
$ONDO is one of the rare coins that has been doing well during two risk-on seasons in a row (early 2024, and Q4 24), I would be surprised to see it be strong again for a 3rd time.
On top of this, it's still trading at $8bn FDV (top #22) for no other reason than maybe the "consolidation into the winner" (in this case, of the RWA sector) phenomenon we often see in crypto
I am short-biased on this coin as a consequence