@TheBigCycleGame Thank you for the great post. Looking at your previous post on the KOSPI dot-com fractal, it seemed like the KOSPI had already reached its peak. However, if the Nasdaq breaks its high once more as shown in the post, do you think there is a chance that the KOSPI will follow suit?
Interesting analysis, but you're missing a crucial point. Whale inflows actually spiked at the very bottom of the 2022-2023 capitulation (second blue box). The absence of a spike right now doesn't automatically mean more downside; it could just mean accumulation is happening off-exchange through OTC desks and spot ETFs, which won't show up on retail exchange inflow data
"Let me be clear: as I always have, I will continue to express my views clearly."
There will eventually be a Bitcoin cycle bottom. And if I see a genuine trend reversal based on my framework, I will say so without hesitation.
However, as I mentioned yesterday, I do not believe this is the time to confidently call a bottom or aggressively position for the next bull market.
At the very least, if this were truly the kind of environment described by the famous saying, "Buy when there is fear," then the data should show signs of someone quietly accumulating and building positions.
If those signs were present, then this area could be considered a "knee" rather than a "top," and even if Bitcoin were to break below $60,000, the downside could remain within a manageable range.
But based on my analysis, the current $60,000 region does not look like that kind of opportunity zone.
That is why I do not believe this is the right time to prematurely declare a bottom or adopt an aggressive strategy in anticipation of a major rally.
Interesting analysis, but you're missing a crucial point. Whale inflows actually spiked at the very bottom of the 2022-2023 capitulation (second blue box). The absence of a spike right now doesn't automatically mean more downside; it could just mean accumulation is happening off-exchange through OTC desks and spot ETFs, which won't show up on retail exchange inflow data