Luca

placing asymmetric bets, not financial advice | hebrews 10:35

[Luca @lucaequity]

https://t.co/Kckxp4In5F

[Luca @lucaequity]

@iruletrenches

[Luca @lucaequity]

@0xopaque @Palgrani2

[Luca @lucaequity]

@macfeurson <3

[Luca @lucaequity]

every cycle a new cohort of KOLs comes out of CT. this cycle's cohort hasn't been decided yet, not many are standing out from the crowd because no one has made a difference onchain YET

people assume the seats are taken, the opposite is true. the timeline is engagement farming and people looking for EL. not many are putting in the effort to get behind one project and ride it to glory, which is why we haven't seen a shift

same with the coins, a market where everything pumps once and dies isn't a good market

rotating from launch to launch every 72 hours doesn't build anything. people get burnt, get bored, and eventually stop

and when they stop, the money doesn't leave. it ends up in the few coins that actually have a community behind them, the ones that are still here after the flush. right now those are the coins nobody wants to touch, and that is exactly what the start of every meme run has looked like

better coins and better people pioneer the next leg. so people need to do real work, show their reasoning, be right out loud and wrong out loud and most importantly act with integrity

be the change you want to see onchain

i will do this with $HAMSTER. if it works out, it works out. if it doesn't, it doesn't. but i won't back down

[Clark 🆓 @Clark10x]

Onchain is for the most part untradable right now

The number of sheep drones following public trading accounts who are blatantly and knowingly vamping other coins is disgusting

Not to mention the amount of tek larp vapor and launchpads running up once and no relief bounce ever straight to 0

If you aren’t in the one or two coins that is winning for ~72 hours your position is slaughtered. If you are in a winning coin then you have about 3 days before the same idea launches with an even more cracked dev which will pump once and then never again

Not to mention little appetite for anything a week old and 0 appetite for several month old cult die hard community memes

Feels like we need a flush

Or we just need better coins to win, and better people to pioneer the next leg

Otherwise if this is what onchain is like during the real bull then it’s only deployers and bundlers who will win

[Luca @lucaequity]

@pooop_real Hamster is the word!

[Luca @lucaequity]

@ConnorDS941 @iruletrenches I am not @iruletrenches although I appreciate the compliment, Miyamoto is a solid guy leading by example!

[Luca @lucaequity]

@LevisNFT I would point you in this direction:

https://t.co/3wzDCOjMHG

[Luca @lucaequity]

https://t.co/Kckxp4In5F

[Luca @lucaequity]

@blockchainz555 <3

[Luca @lucaequity]

study which coins are holding well while $SOL and the broader market dump

that's your list for when things flip bullish again

the ones that refuse to go down during weakness are the ones that go vertical during strength

add $HAMSTER to the watchlist

[Luca @lucaequity]

@iruletrenches thank you, i wrote the thread because people rarely write proper thesis out anymore and people on CT don't do proper DD themselves on what they're buying anymore

glad to have you onboard for the journey :)

[Luca @lucaequity]

@macfeurson He’s a cutie patootie

[Luca @lucaequity]

@FredvomJup11 @Aurelius0121 Hooked x Hamster barbell. Sign him up.

[Luca @lucaequity]

@iruletrenches Solana needs hooked pretty badly, it solves 90% of the extraction going on in the space.

[Luca @lucaequity]

@azamixyz @Hoookedpad It'll happen, a rising tide lifts all boats.

S/O @brezscales who's already doing a good job proliferating.

[Luca @lucaequity]

@Tonedidit

[Luca @lucaequity]

it's interesting how markets work, you can see the same psychology play out in micro cap memecoins as in the broader market.

people enter a trade with a thesis, then a couple of red candles later they get scared and sell. nothing about the thesis changed, only the price did.

a rational thinker would take the opportunity to buy more and bring their average cost down but the opposite happens almost every time. most people capitulate on their position even though nothing has invalidated it

and then, a lot of the time, smart money steps in and prices all the sellers out with a couple of big candles

a reminder that 80% drawdowns are completely normal and needed. every successful token has been through them, many times.

this is also why you see the same names hitting the insane trades over and over. it isn't luck. they've mastered their emotions and are completely unfazed by drawdowns, so they're still holding when the move finally comes.

that is why I remain fully convicted in $HAMSTER

- Luca

[Luca @lucaequity]

the longer the consolidation, the bigger the move.

however a slow bleed to zero looks almost identical to accumulation until the breakout actually happens.

the chart only becomes "the pattern" in hindsight. the edge is knowing which wallets are buying during the accumulation.

[Unipcs (aka 'Bonk Guy') 🎒 @theunipcs]

many expect good coins to just go up in a straight line without brakes

but here's actually how good coins pump

and that's perfectly okay!

[Luca @lucaequity]

That's supply changing hands, not extraction. Early buyers who got in at launch are selling to people who actually want to hold it. That has to happen on every token and it always looks ugly on the chart.

Extraction is when the supply never settles because bots and bundlers keep farming it. Here the sellers are real and they run out.

The pattern you're seeing is the first group leaving. What matters is who's buying it from them.

https://t.co/5Ys0jZik0D

[Unipcs (aka 'Bonk Guy') 🎒 @theunipcs]

many expect good coins to just go up in a straight line without brakes

but here's actually how good coins pump

and that's perfectly okay!

[Luca @lucaequity]

Why memecoin ceilings keep falling: constant extraction

Shiba Inu peaked at $50B. Pepe at $12B. The 2024 animals at $2 to $5B. The 2025 cohort mostly under $500M. Nothing launched in 2026 has cleared $1B. People blame the memes. The memes are fine. The problem is that every chart has four middlemen sitting on it, and each one skims a little.

Sandwich bots take a cut of every buy. Volume bots fake the chart to pull in the next buyer and sell into them. Market makers play with emotions. Bundlers sit on hidden supply from the start. Each one skims a little, and together they bleed every launch into the ground before a holder base can form.

$HAMSTER is immune to most of the extraction. It can only trade inside social trading platforms. The token refuses terminals, bots and direct pool calls. No sandwiches, no volume bots, no bundlers, no MM.

Every dollar that would have leaked to a sandwich bot stays with the buyer. Every fake volume candle that would have baited someone into being exit liquidity never prints. Every bundle that would have been dumped didn't have the chance to be bought.

A token that isn't being drained can compound. The holders keep what they would have lost, the chart reflects real demand, and the people who want to hold get the chance to. That is the condition every big memecoin had early in its cycle and every 2026 launch has lacked.

Remove the extraction and the ceiling stops falling. That is what makes this an asymmetric bet at $700k.

[Luca @lucaequity]

@blockchainz555 This should answer the question 😆

https://t.co/XG6k99JOt5

[Luca @lucaequity]

A bit about me, since I'll be posting trades here.

I spent the last several years as a portfolio manager at various firms. This restricted me from trading publicly as every trade had to go through a clearance process before I could touch it.

It was impossible for me to dabble with onchain tokens as everything moves so quickly.

I've stepped away from that now. I'm excited about being able to act on something the second I'm convinced of it, size it how I want, and actually talk about it and share my thoughts.

So this account is going to be two things.

One is a stock portfolio on eToro that I'm building from scratch, in public.

The other is onchain. Memecoins, social trading apps and building up a portfolio. I'll be doing most of it through FOMO. Some of it will be experiments and some of it will be proper sized bets, and I'll be clear about which is which.

Everything I buy I'll write up. The research goes here, the positions are mine, and none of it is advice.