Lucas Bernicker

no crying in the casino, the slot machines are broken. DYOR

[Lucas Bernicker @lucas_bernicker]

$ONON long ON, short NKE pair trade... oversold on a very good earnings print in a highly promotional environment. Brand heat is everything and there is so much whitespace in running, apparel, and new sports which I see coming online in FY27. As long as sell-through rates stay consistent and they maintain "discipline over discounting", manage retail well, and respect wholesale partners, this remains my top idea in the sector. Every channel is showing mkt share gains and China softness is temporary. Great opportunity to own a mid 20s compounder at 18x NTM.

[Lucas Bernicker @lucas_bernicker]

@BoringBiz_ #2 is a classic case of the Pareto principle - 80% of the investment case can be explained by the most important 20% of analysis

[Lucas Bernicker @lucas_bernicker]

Do you care enough to outperform? One does not have to believe in the EMH to admit that the mkt is a competitive place. Careful consideration should be given to your edge before pursuing above-average returns, esp when passive is cheap and easy. Humility is a risk management tool

[Lucas Bernicker @lucas_bernicker]

You shouldn’t need a full Substack article to articulate your view on a name. More information ≠ better decisions. The real skill is distilling the investment story to the 3-5 KPIs that matter for long term value creation. Be wary of diminishing returns and confirmation bias.

[Lucas Bernicker @lucas_bernicker]

$VEON quietly breaking out of its range… diversified EM Telco hiding a digital platform growing >50% trending towards 30% of group rev. Still mispriced on Ukraine overhang, listing complexity, and lack of coverage. Mgmt executing every step of the way

[Lucas Bernicker @lucas_bernicker]

$AXON down 10% today with market pricing in massive dilution from $1B convertible offering. Free financing for maintaining growth >30% YOY in exchange for 2-3% dilution with capped-call protections is a no-brainer. Dedrone, Prepared, Carbyne... all massively accretive.

[Lucas Bernicker @lucas_bernicker]

Many losers can be avoided by properly estimating the returns on INCREMENTAL capital and the investment runway for a business. The returns from the existing capital base tell you nothing about the future looking opportunities for capital allocation

[Lucas Bernicker @lucas_bernicker]

@iancassel Yet many still think of ownership in terms of months instead of years… great compounders deserve a runway

[Lucas Bernicker @lucas_bernicker]

Real edge in fundamental investing shows up at the process level… the reality of this industry is that outcomes (returns) are non-deterministic and multi factorial (luck, timing, macro, etc). A real sign of alpha is the consistent independent production of variant perception.

[Lucas Bernicker @lucas_bernicker]

I think it’s time to come out of stealth on here with how much slop I’ve seen on FinTwit… will be posting actionable ideas as well as thoughts on process, value creation, risk management, fundraising, investing psychology, and life as it relates to markets.

[Lucas Bernicker @lucas_bernicker]

@A_May_MD Incredible work on this name Adam

[Lucas Bernicker @lucas_bernicker]

@pats_mac @DeAndreHopkins hater

[Lucas Bernicker @lucas_bernicker]

@Padres LFGSD!