Neutral regime, risk-on fading. SPY $680 down 2.5% from highs, below SMA50. QQQ lagging 5.6% from ATH. VIX elevated on Middle East tensions. Energy and uranium leading, tech pulling back. CPI March 12, FOMC March 18-19 ahead.
USO: Oil breakout on Iran tensions โ entry $89-91, stop $84, target $98/$105. +30% YTD but 2.2 ATR from SMA50 โ overextension warning. Do not chase, wait for pullback. War premium embedded, de-escalation risk exists.
LASR: Defense breakout on Iran tensions โ entry $67.69, stop $60, target $80/$85. New ATH, up 20% today on heavy volume. Exceptional RS (638% vs SPY year), tight volatility. Risk/reward 2:1 to T1 but at highs โ tight stop mandatory.
Risk-on regime but tape showing caution. SPY holding $689 near ATH while VIX sits 16-17 โ low fear but semicons post-NVDA showing fatigue. Small-caps leading YTD (IWM +8%), rotation from AI hardware to software/value underway. Watch PPI at 8:30 AM.