Luke Neuendorf

Football Analytics Enthusiast | Data Scientist | @UWMadison Alum | Wannabe Triathlete | Disc Golf

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[Luke Neuendorf @lukeneuendorf]

@SamHoppen This likely has some truth though, since NFL teams aren't allowed to run live models in game so they have to use binders to search WP by situation. Only so many things a big matrix binder can account for given the time constraint. I would assume weather is not in all of them

[Luke Neuendorf @lukeneuendorf]

Over the past 13 seasons, college football teams have increasingly gone for it on 4th down in generally viable situations. The league-wide ‘go’ rate in these scenarios has climbed from 46% in 2013 to over 71% in 2025, reflecting a growing trend toward aggressive decision-making.

[Luke Neuendorf @lukeneuendorf]

When accounting for total win probability lost, results shift somewhat. WP lost varies by situation and game context. Iowa alone gave up nearly half a win in 2025 due to conservative 4th-down decisions.

[Luke Neuendorf @lukeneuendorf]

Big Ten 2025 4th-down go rates when analytics recommended it. Oregon and USC were most aligned with the numbers.

Ohio State, Minnesota, and Iowa were more conservative, favoring punts or field goals in those spots. More info at https://t.co/OCtV3sfJW7