Luke Tryl

Lover of finding out what people think, UK Director @Moreincommon_ 🏳️‍🌈🇺🇦

[Luke Tryl @LukeTryl]

🧵Tracking latest forced choice PM heads to heads
🌹Burnham wins handily against all alternatives, closest but still clear against Badenoch, overwhelmingly against Polanski.
🌳Badenoch beats the other 4 leaders.
➡️Farage only wins against Polanski
🌍Polanski now loses all of the head to heads
Lowe above Farage/Polanski but caveat of much lower name recognition.

[Luke Tryl @LukeTryl]

@CorianderSoap There’s a comparison with Starmer in the second tweet. Not the same.

[Luke Tryl @LukeTryl]

🧵Tracking latest forced choice PM heads to heads
🌹Burnham wins handily against all alternatives, closest but still clear against Badenoch, overwhelmingly against Polanski.
🌳Badenoch beats the other 4 leaders.
➡️Farage only wins against Polanski
🌍Polanski now loses all of the head to heads
Lowe above Farage/Polanski but caveat of much lower name recognition.

[The Opinion Brief @opinionbriefpod]

Which party leader do Britons think would make the best Prime Minister?

@LukeTryl asks whether an increasingly multi-party political landscape could change how we predict who will lead the country.

[Luke Tryl @LukeTryl]

The elderly tend to be more prepared than younger generations, though written down numbers I think is an artefact of mass landline use. The only exception is having a charged powerbank where young people are more likely to have one

[Luke Tryl @LukeTryl]

With the Defence Secretary promoting national preparedness, what do people have on stand by? Many have first aid kits, torches & non perishable food. Fewer have water or radios(& probably encouragingly v.few weapons). Think the 9% who say they fallout shelters may mean cellars.

[Luke Tryl @LukeTryl]

For Labour upshot of Tories not being dead means two things 1. Does right stay divided and for how long, obviously factors into GE judgements but 2. What if Tories were to emerge as primary opposition in a campaign not Reform @Modern_Lockey worth reading on this.

[Luke Tryl @LukeTryl]

Further evidence the Conservative Party has pulled back from the brink, though the battle for the right is still very tight and no sign of either Reform/Cons being able to make the clear breakthrough they need to pitch themselves as 'the choice' to beat Labour.

[electionmapsuk @electionmapsuk]

Last night was the Conservatives’ best in a long time: four wins from five contests, three of them gains.

That takes them to 29 wins since May’s local elections, more than any other party (Reform 26, Labour 26, Lib Dems 24).

[Luke Tryl @LukeTryl]

Will likely involve trying to reach more cross-bloc voters who might go Labour, but can be pulled back if party has a broader economic offer (e.g. not just Tory economics) and if Labour seem to weaken on migration/Europe becomes an issue. Possible but hard at Burnham's current level of popularity.

[Luke Tryl @LukeTryl]

Obviously forced choice head to heads are somewhat artificial. But tracking the shifts is useful, particularly if it looks like far from returning to 2 party politics we are instead in multiparty politics but lots of 2 party individual contests, who supporters of ‘other parties’ rally behind really matters, which is why we like to look at the H2Hs

[Luke Tryl @LukeTryl]

Farage trails across the board except for Polanski who he narrowly bests in a forced choice head to head, he performs worst against Badenoch, but also much worse against Burnham than he did against Starmer.

[Beth Rigby @BethRigby]

Takeaways from focus group.
Was expecting Brexit backlash. But these 7 Makerfield residents, who all voted leave, didn’t rile at Burnham on EU
Immigration & welfare. Massive concerns. Lab backsliding on reform big risk for Burnham
Burnham: seems the honeymoon continues for now

[Luke Tryl @LukeTryl]

IMO would have been better to present any tweaks as being about consultation process having led to changes which actually allow for more effective control and with a fair recognition of contribution. Think harder to sell public on that now.

[Luke Tryl @LukeTryl]

Regardless of any tweaks made to the ILR proposals in the home office consultation (the broad thrust of which are popular). Recent cabinet interventions mean any weakening is now more easily portrayed to public as climb down on immigration control/capitulation to one wing of party who are less keen on control.

[Ridge & Frost @RidgeandFrost]

How is Andy Burnham doing as prime minister as he enters his 100th day in office?

Executive Director of More in Common UK @LukeTryl breaks down the latest polling on his popularity ⬇️

[Luke Tryl @LukeTryl]

Measure which are seen to offer at least some help across the board, even if the bulk of targeting is at the poorest, are likely to command greater support. There is a real risk among those just ineligible for support that it feeds a narrative we hear a lot the super rich are looked after, benefit claimants are but they are not.

[Luke Tryl @LukeTryl]

🧵Ahead of the Budget, our research with @electrifygb finds bringing down energy bills is the public's top priority for the budget: picked by 58% of Britons, ahead of public services (33%) & tax cuts (32%). It is number one for Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem and Reform voters alike.

[Tom Scotson @_tomscotson]

EXC: Lowering energy bills is Britons' top priority ahead of the Budget

But 77 per cent fear Labour will push them up even further.

@LukeTryl tells me worry about bills cuts across the income and political spectrum 👇
https://t.co/OKBrj0CS6z

[Luke Tryl @LukeTryl]

A risk to any Government interventions comes from the ‘squeezed middle’ Brits tend to prefer universal support over targeted. From focus groups, it’s clear there is a real risk that if support misses those who work and also aren’t elligible for benefits it will increase the growing frustration no one seems to have their back.