Singh

Sikh Punjabi. UC Berkeley Mathematics, Mathematical Biology, Public Policy

[Singh @lulzcakes]

@JohnRSamuelsen I majored in Mathematics and I can confidently say that the blue line will go straight up to 100% at 3pm. I've done the calculations.

[Singh @lulzcakes]

@NateSilver538 Have you weighted your model for every $100 of inflation, though? That's the most important statistical metric.

[Singh @lulzcakes]

"Each additional $100 of inflation" makes me question whether Nate can be trusted for even extremely basic analysis. What's under the hood of his polling model? I'm not sure I would have made this mistake as a fresh undergrad, let alone deep into my career.

[Nate Silver @NateSilver538]

There are some confounders here, but the inflation thing is actually statistically significant! Each additional $100 of inflation in a state since January 2021 predicts a further 1.6 swing against Harris in our polling average vs. the Biden-Trump margin in 2020.

[Singh @lulzcakes]

A white girl I went out on a date with in 2020 said I was being racist because I used the word 'Latino'.

https://t.co/tdEXJtWbX1

'Latinx' is a sign of how the progressive wing has taken up fake-woke signaling in lieu of true critical discourse.

[Marcel Roman @mfrmarcel]

Why are Latinos voting for Trump? @asdurso and I explain part of the puzzle in a new working paper. We show Latinos have backlashed against Democratic politicians due to their usage of, and association with, the gender-inclusive group label "Latinx" 1/n https://t.co/Gxc87gPTld

[Singh @lulzcakes]

The 50bps rate cut and aggressive loosening is actually raising rates on long-dated bonds. The 10y is up 7bps. While yields and terminal rates may not be 1:1 correlated, the bond market is pricing in unintuitive action. Perhaps persistent 2.5-3% inflation?

[Singh @lulzcakes]

So the risk of heading into a recessionary labor market is now roughly equivalent to the risk of inflation heating back up. Debatable whether the reason behind this 50bps cut is a net positive for equities. @TheStalwart

[Singh @lulzcakes]

@TheStalwart We went from no cut in July to 100bps by EOY in September. I don't see how this could be construed as bullish for the markets. A 100bps cut in four months during any other period would be considered drastic. There's loose policy and then there's "something is going wrong".

[Singh @lulzcakes]

@TheStalwart I ran into quite a few of those people in the Odd Lots discord channel

[Singh @lulzcakes]

@TheStalwart We went from no cut in July to 100bps by EOY in September. I don't see how this could be construed as bullish for the markets. A 100bps cut in four months during any other period would be considered drastic. There's loose policy and then there's "something is going wrong".

[Singh @lulzcakes]

"They're eating pets and dogs in the streets"
"I have concepts of a plan"

TikTok is going to eat these quotes up alive. #Debate2024

[Singh @lulzcakes]

Trump hasn't recovered since the crowd size jab. He's been flailing and going on incoherent rants since. #Debate2024

[Singh @lulzcakes]

@USA_Polling If you don't believe in this, you don't believe in Americans. #Blexas is coming.

[Singh @lulzcakes]

@ChrisDJackson @NateSilver538 You're so weird. He's obviously going to add that to the model and average it out. What makes you think he won't?

[Singh @lulzcakes]

@bassett_green Hey man can you send me the code for this

[Singh @lulzcakes]

@DivesTech The sentiment is exactly the opposite if you watch videos on TikTok. On my TikTok feed, I've been seeing endless pro-TikTok and anti US government content, but I haven't seen a single anti-TikTok video. I can't find a single video on all of TikTok that is pro US government.

[Singh @lulzcakes]

@bassett_green Can we buy SVB? What's the going bid @SecYellen

[Singh @lulzcakes]

@loganbartlett @TheStalwart @markets Using up the goodwill of the State, built up through a century of reliability by the State (taxpayers), is a taxpayer bailout. How many times did you hear: "No depositer has ever lost money in the USA"? That's the taxpayer's goodwill. And yesterday, it was used to bail out VCs.

[Singh @lulzcakes]

This bailout incentivizes a landscape where continuous stripping of banking regulations bears no societal costs. Until of course there are societal costs, and taxpayers now foot the bill. This doesn't have the tagline "funded by taxpayer dollars", but it's still a bailout #SVB

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

This was not a bailout. During the GFC, the gov’t injected taxpayer money in the form of preferred stock into banks. Bondholders were protected and shareholders were diluted to varying degrees. Taxpayer money was put at great risk. Many people who screwed up suffered minimal to no consequences. Those were bailouts.

Here, shareholders and bond holders have been wiped out. The @FDICgov insurance fund capitalized by premiums paid by banks will absorb any losses. The fund will recoup any losses by assessing more premiums on the banks.

Had the @FDICgov @USTreasury and @federalreserve not intervened today, we would have had a 1930s bank run continuing first thing Monday causing enormous economic damage and hardship to millions.

More banks will likely fail despite the intervention, but we now have a clear roadmap for how the gov’t will manage them.

Bank boards and managements have received a massive wake up call. Being a director or CEO of a bank that fails is no fun: years of litigation, regulatory investigations, personal liability, potential civil and criminal charges, and enormous reputational damage.

Our gov’t did the right thing. This was not a bailout in any form. The people who screwed up will bear the consequences. The investors who didn’t adequately oversee their banks will be zeroed out and the bondholders will suffer a similar fate.

Importantly, our gov’t has sent a message that depositors can trust the banking system. Without this confidence, we are left with three or possibly four too-big-to-fail banks where the taxpayer is explicitly on the hook, and our national system of community and regional banks is toast.

Our government did the right thing for the country. We are very fortunate it did so.

[Singh @lulzcakes]

The same bank that wanted decades of banking regulations removed, and lobbied to have even more regulations removed not weeks before their failure, is the same bank now being bailed out by banking regulations. #SVB #SiliconValleyBank

[Singh @lulzcakes]

@GuyDealership Every online dealer offer for my car and my parents' cars went up by thousands compared to last week. From 13.1k to 16.3k in one case. What happened this past week?

[Singh @lulzcakes]

@GuyDealership Can you tell us the average transaction price per car type and class? For example, an economy sedan. Or a hybrid 4-door. I'm not in the market for an SUV or truck, and they're skewing this data.