AJ

to become like water

[🐧 @Pentosh1]

I don't net short with leverage. Nothing against people who do it well, and there are some that do and are very talented. It's just not my strength and not my style. If I'm bearish I go to cash, or hedge spot a little bit. You will see me disappear during those times bc I'm just not trading.

The math is why. Longs can go to infinity, they are uncapped on upside where as shorts are capped. Essentially best case it goes to 0 and you make a 2x.

SNDK did 60x or so in the past year. 50% fall pays you 50% whether you nailed a parabolic top or shorted something like ETH which has already been cut in half if it fell in half now. The short doesn't care how extended the move was. People who've been trying to call tops with levered shorts, well, it's typically an ego thing. More often than not. it's better to short the thing that has been performing like crap anyways. idk what the obsession is with shorting strength repeatedly

Then in equities you have other things that go against you. It's carry. Shorts bleed, you pay the borrow, pay the dividend, fighting stock buybacks, inflation, etc. The timing has to be pretty precise. And then there are naked shorts, where you end up shorting something and end up losing 3-4x the amount you invested. Short MU at $250, it goes to 1k. It happens all the time.

It is so much better to just have a few good plays, and then every once in awhile you find a high conviction bet to really just push to the max. Even for me, most trades I take are pretty consistent, and once a year I hit a trade that makes up like 70% of my years gains bc I knew it was the one. But that's just my style.

[Pumponomics @ThePumponomics]

sometimes i'm jealous of people who just don't care about money. like genuinely don't think about it.

my buddy goes to work, comes home, coaches his kid's baseball team, watches tv. he's never once checked a crypto chart or calculated his net worth or stayed up until midnight researching.

he's perfectly happy. maybe happier than me honestly.

i can't turn my brain off. i'm always calculating. always optimizing. always thinking about the next move. it's made me wealthy but i'm not sure it's made me happier than the guy who just lives his life without keeping score.

the irony of financial freedom is that the personality type that achieves it is usually the same personality type that can't enjoy it. you're too busy chasing the next number.

i'm working on this. slowly. but i think some of you know exactly what i'm talking about.

[🐧 @Pentosh1]

will keep saying this over and over and over

There are 4 outcomes

Big win
Small Win
Small Loss
Big Loss

Your job is just to eliminate #4. You will have good trades, and bad trades. but as long as you eliminate the big losses, the other 3 outcomes will lead to consistent growth over time. Our decisions compound with time.

We will have both ups and downs. That's unavoidable bc we all make mistakes. But the goal is just to have higher lows and higher highs consistently. You might have a 20% win here, and a 5% loss there. Then you move onto the next one. It always comes down to probabilities and just putting ourselves in a position to win.

[Lin @Speculator_io]

This bull market won't last forever.

You need to take advantage of it while it's here.

Trillion-dollar industries are unfolding before our eyes:
AI, semis, photonics, space, data centers, energy, robotics, nuclear, drones, quantum.

The scale of change is massive, and the potential is enormous.

This bull markets is creating life-changing opportunities.

So, focus on the leading sectors and stocks. Be aggressive in the right areas, but don't get reckless. Always manage risk.

Moments like these are rare.

This is where fortunes are made.

Don't waste it.

[Ronit Pereira @CAronitpereira]

“Attack life, it’s going to kill you anyways.”

- Steve McQueen

[cvxv666 @antpalkin]

You could literally:

> Open a Polymarket account
> Mirror one Chinese engineer's wallet
> Let his Claude agents fire 1,000 trades
> Win 900 of them on autopilot
> Cash out +$60K in 48 hours
> Starting capital: $20

Why aren't people doing this?!

[Kaizen @KAIZ3NS]

Ceasefire in April.
Strait of Hormuz opens.
Trump declares victory.
Talks continue.
Sell in may.
Re-escalation.
Strait of hormuz closed again.
Threat of nukes.
Market nukes.
Ground invasion.
China hints to invade Taiwan.
North Korea missile tests.
BTC drops below $50k.
Buy Q3/Q4.
Printer goes brrr.
War ends.
Mid-term elections.
Bull market starts.

[Aman @Amank1412]

I cant stop thinking about this.

[mayerr @ymmayerr]

If you don't actively shape the life you desire each day, you'll eventually wake up to find that years have slipped by unnoticed

[L2WTrades @L2WTrades]

I traded the same strategy with 7 different risk percentages for 100 trades each

0.5%, 1%, 1.5%, 2%, 2.5%, 3%, 4% per trade

The results will change how you think about position sizing forever

Here's the optimal risk percentage backed by 700 trades of data:

The experiment setup:

- Same strategy across all tests
- Same entry rules
- Same exit rules
- 100 trades per risk level
- Same market conditions (6 months)
- Only variable: Risk per trade

The hypothesis: Higher risk = higher returns

The reality: It's not linear

Here's what actually happened:

0.5% RISK PER TRADE:
- 100 trades
- Win rate: 59%
- Max drawdown: 3.2%
- Final return: +14.8%
- Largest loss: -0.5%
- Psychological stress: Low
- Quit probability: 0%

1% RISK PER TRADE:
- 100 trades
- Win rate: 58%
- Max drawdown: 6.7%
- Final return: +31.4%
- Largest loss: -1%
- Psychological stress: Low-Medium
- Quit probability: 5%

1.5% RISK PER TRADE:
- 100 trades
- Win rate: 57%
- Max drawdown: 11.3%
- Final return: +48.9%
- Largest loss: -1.5%
- Psychological stress: Medium
- Quit probability: 15%

2% RISK PER TRADE:
- 100 trades
- Win rate: 54%
- Max drawdown: 17.8%
- Final return: +52.1%
- Largest loss: -2%
- Psychological stress: Medium-High
- Quit probability: 35%

2.5% RISK PER TRADE:
- 100 trades
- Win rate: 51%
- Max drawdown: 24.6%
- Final return: +41.3%
- Largest loss: -2.5%
- Psychological stress: High
- Quit probability: 58%

3% RISK PER TRADE:
- 100 trades
- Win rate: 48%
- Max drawdown: 31.2%
- Final return: +28.7%
- Largest loss: -3%
- Psychological stress: Very High
- Quit probability: 73%

4% RISK PER TRADE:
- 100 trades
- Win rate: 44%
- Max drawdown: 43.8%
- Final return: -12.4%
- Largest loss: -4%
- Psychological stress: Extreme
- Quit probability: 94%

The pattern is clear:

Risk 0.5%-1.5%: Win rate stable, returns increase proportionally
Risk 2%-2.5%: Win rate drops, returns peak then decline
Risk 3%-4%: Win rate collapses, returns become negative

Why does win rate drop with higher risk?

PSYCHOLOGY BREAKDOWN:

At 0.5% risk:
- Losing doesn't hurt
- Easy to follow system
- No emotional interference
- Execute perfectly

At 2% risk:
- Losses sting
- Start questioning system
- Emotional interference begins
- Exit winners early (fear of giving back)
- Hold losers longer (hope of recovery)

At 4% risk:
- Every loss is painful
- System abandoned after 2-3 losses
- Full emotional chaos
- Revenge trading kicks in
- Random position sizing
- Complete system breakdown

You're not executing the same strategy at 4% risk

You're executing an emotional disaster

The optimal risk percentage:

Based on 700 trades across 7 risk levels:

BEST RISK-ADJUSTED RETURN: 1.5%
- Highest absolute return: +48.9%
- Manageable drawdown: 11.3%
- Sustainable psychology: Medium stress
- Win rate preservation: 57%

BEST FOR BEGINNERS: 1%
- Solid return: +31.4%
- Low drawdown: 6.7%
- Low psychological stress
- Win rate preservation: 58%

DEATH ZONE: 3%+
- Returns collapse
- Drawdowns explode
- Psychology destroyed
- Account blown inevitable

The risk/drawdown relationship:

0.5% risk → 3.2% max drawdown (6.4X multiplier)
1% risk → 6.7% max drawdown (6.7X multiplier)
1.5% risk → 11.3% max drawdown (7.5X multiplier)
2% risk → 17.8% max drawdown (8.9X multiplier)
3% risk → 31.2% max drawdown (10.4X multiplier)

The multiplier increases exponentially

Why?

Because losing streaks exist

At 58% win rate:
- 6-trade losing streak: Statistically expected every 100 trades
- 8-trade losing streak: Possible every 200 trades
- 10-trade losing streak: Rare but happens

10 losing trades at different risk levels:

0.5% × 10 = 5% drawdown (survivable)
1% × 10 = 10% drawdown (manageable)
1.5% × 10 = 15% drawdown (uncomfortable)
2% × 10 = 20% drawdown (scary)
3% × 10 = 30% drawdown (panic mode)
4% × 10 = 40% drawdown (blown account psychology)

Your system WILL hit losing streaks

Question is: Will you survive them?

The return-per-unit-of-stress:

0.5% risk: +14.8% return / Low stress = Good ratio
1% risk: +31.4% return / Low-Med stress = Great ratio
1.5% risk: +48.9% return / Medium stress = Best ratio
2% risk: +52.1% return / Med-High stress = Declining ratio
3% risk: +28.7% return / Very High stress = Bad ratio
4% risk: -12.4% return / Extreme stress = Terrible ratio

The sweet spot: 1-1.5% risk

Maximum returns without destroying psychology

The actual implementation:

BEGINNER (0-200 trades live experience):
Use 0.5-1% risk
Focus on execution
Build psychological capital
Profits are secondary

INTERMEDIATE (200-500 trades):
Use 1-1.5% risk
Scale up slowly
Prove psychological readiness
Lock in profits

ADVANCED (500+ trades, proven edge):
Use 1.5% risk maximum
Never go higher
Resist temptation to "make more"
Consistency over home runs

NEVER USE:
2.5%+ risk
Even if you "can handle it"
The data shows you can't
Nobody can

The prop firm context:

Prop firms typically allow 4% daily loss

If you risk:
- 0.5%: Takes 6 losing trades to hit limit (survivable)
- 2%: Takes 2 losing trades to hit limit (dangerous)
- 3%: Takes 1 losing trade to hit limit (death)

At 3% risk, two consecutive losses = near daily limit

Panic sets in
Revenge trade taken
Account blown

The "make money faster" trap:

You think: "If I risk 3% instead of 1%, I'll make money 3X faster"

Reality: You'll blow account 5X faster

Because psychology breaks at high risk

And broken psychology = broken trading

The traders making real money:

Risk 0.5-1% per trade (depending if you are on eval, funded or live)
Boring position sizing
Consistent execution
Compounding for years

The traders blowing accounts:

Risk 3-5% per trade
"Aggressive" position sizing
Emotional execution
Blown in months

Choose your path

The data is clear:

1-1.5% risk = Optimal returns with manageable psychology

Anything higher = Chasing ret

It's about whether you'll still be trading in 6 months

Risk 1.5% and you will be

Risk 3% and you won't

DM me "RISK" if you want help calculating YOUR optimal risk percentage based on YOUR account size, YOUR psychology, and YOUR risk tolerance

[Richard E. Ptardio @RichardPtardio]

I rather suspect Mr. Trump has benefitted from crypto-currency far more than crypto-currency has benefitted from Mr. Trump.

[curb 🐂🀄️ @CryptoCurb]

🚨 JUST IN: @BINANCE FOUND TO BE ALTERING INTERNAL PRICE CHARTS AFTER COORDINATING THE LARGEST LIQUIDATION IN THE HISTORY OF CRYPTO ($400B+). $ATOM PRICE CRASH LOW CHANGED FROM $0.001 to $2.703

REMOVE YOUR FUNDS FROM BINANCE IMMEDIATELY

[Loma @LomahCrypto]

Hmmm

[Mayne @Tradermayne]

Did bro say FORTY

[AJ @lvl1mentality]

Pattern says we'll go higher #Ethereum $ETH

[Gold @Gold_Cryptoz]

I had to take profit on my first ever 7 fig single trade PnL - $ETH.

This started off as a 500k position, but I grew this into a $3m+ position that I made 40%+ on

I came to realise, I don't think I can mentally handle another 10% drop. I wanted that 7 fig PnL. Besides, you never go broke taking profits.

$1.04m on a single trade. Huge for me and a major milestone.

Maybe I mark the bottom, but at this point I don't really care. I nailed this trade and I am happy with every aspect of how I played this.

Onto the next.

And of course, there will be a big bank withdrawal tomorrow.

[AJ @lvl1mentality]

@0xVKTR this deserve a follow

[AJ @lvl1mentality]

Would be funny if we end this day red $BTC $ETH

[AJ @lvl1mentality]

#Fartcoin above $3 sooner than we think.