Two years ago SBF wrote a thread on bet size and Kelly betting.
I questioned him on it. He engaged with me.
Let’s take a look at this thread and SBF’s views on bet sizing in light of the events with FTX and Alameda this week.
In short, the existing regulators have already failed on 1000X the scale.
Trillions. Not billions.
And no one was punished.
Bankers bailed out.
Nobels handed out.
It was too big to fail.
But not too big to exit.
We now have a new system.
Let’s remember why we left the old one.
Tough loss to swallow, I’m slowly coming to terms with it but it is not easy.
I did a lot of things right in the last 12 months, managed greed, took profits offline.
My mistake was trusting FTX with my trading balance, my biggest single loss ever by far.
I feel demoralized.
SBF is the worst criminal in crypto
Mt Gox were the victims or hackers/theft, 3AC Terra Luna were incompetant or wrong but trying
But SBF Bankman Fraud just plain stole customer funds while pontificating to lawmakers
If the fundamentals of a project haven’t changed (but the price has), then that’s an opportunity to capitalise.
If you have a long term outlook and conviction, then dips should be a blessing, not a curse.
Unfortunately true conviction often isn’t tested until things get ugly.
You don't have to worry about being right all the time if you have the conviction to let time play out, but you do have to put in the work for conviction, it does not come freely.
Appreciate time. Most people are in a rush to gain riches, but it's the rush that becomes the inhibitor.
If seeing the conviction through can provide riches, then the main obstacle is only execution over time.
Repeat after me
Do not judge financial investments on 'community'
Do not judge financial investments on 'community'
Do not judge financial investments on 'community'
You are investing, not joining a Church
Ask questions, and run the other way if people try to shut you up.
The concept of bet sizing is something I learnt from poker.
No one wins 100%.
It all comes down to how much money you make when you're right and how much money you lose when you're wrong
Taking profits and properly allocating your portfolio are critical for long-term success.
The Doom Loop cometh and shall bring forth the dreaded Yield Curve Control. Beware of heretics preaching about the value of fiat currencies, for they speak the words of the devil.
https://t.co/Yb2VKPNRlS
State of Tech
Crypto: "2.5% transaction fees are outrageous. Let's launch 10 competitors this year to drive this to zero"
Web2: "We think a 47.5% transaction fee on digital objects is pretty competitive to be honest"
Government: "How can we protect consumers from crypto?"
In 1994, Jeff Bezos famously spotted a stat that made him leave his high-paying PE job to start Amazon:
💡 The Internet was growing 2300% per year.
What are the generation-defining stats of today?
I'll post a few to kick things off...
The shock cycle:
- Assume good news is permanent.
- Oblivious to bad news.
- Ignore bad news.
- Deny bad news.
- Panic at bad news.
- Accept bad news.
- Ignore good news.
- Deny good news.
- Accept good news.
- Assume good news is permanent.