默序 | m0xu_lab

Trader + Engineer | ChanLun × Derivatives × AI
Dissect mechanisms, no signals
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[默序 | m0xu_lab @m0xu_lab]

这句话值得刻在墙上。

估值是结果，不是原因。市场见顶从来不是因为"太贵了"，而是因为"没人接盘了"。流动性 + 情绪 + 仓位结构，这三个才是真正的顶底信号。

缠论里"背驰"的本质也是这个，不是价格高了，是推动价格的力量衰竭了。把估值当顶底指标，等于看后视镜开车。
#交易哲学 #缠论 #市场结构

[Z @ZeeContrarian1]

Markets don’t peak because of valuations. They never have, and they never will. Take the dot-com bubble: it burst when liquidity dried up, profitless companies ran out of cash, and sentiment collapsed. Valuations were just the excuse after the fact.

[默序 | m0xu_lab @m0xu_lab]

@minchoi Long March-10B got approved in July 2025. It flew and recovered its booster yesterday, one year later. Falcon 9 took five and a half years and 20 flights to get its first landing. "10 years behind" misses the point. The catch-up rate is what matters.

[默序 | m0xu_lab @m0xu_lab]

@folaoftech Apparently the bat is stuck because it can't find windows to run. 😆

[默序 | m0xu_lab @m0xu_lab]

OpenAI 硬件负责人让 Apple 前员工把 Apple 的机密硬件带到面试现场"展示"。起诉书第70段写得清清楚楚。

聊天记录里他让应聘者带"你参与研发的零件"来面试：电池、SIP（系统级封装）、MLB（主板）、屏蔽罩。向其他面试官"展示"这些 Apple 组件。

凹凸曼是真想做硬件，还是真觉得偷硬件没问题？

[Stephen Robles @stephenrobles]

OpenAI's Chief Hardware Officer apparently directed former Apple employees to bring confidential hardware components TO THEIR OPENAI INTERVIEW for "show and tell."

Wild... (from the court filing):

[默序 | m0xu_lab @m0xu_lab]

他叫 Chang Liu。Apple 干了8年。跳槽 OpenAI。Apple 让他还电脑，他说：这是我的了。然后他用这台电脑，把 Apple 卖了。

他是 Apple 前 Senior System Electrical Engineer，一直做 iPhone。今年1月离职加入 OpenAI。Apple 要求归还公司电脑，他直接无视——"这是我的电脑了"。

离职后几小时内，他给还在 Apple 的前同事 Yu-Ting "Alyssa" Peng 发消息："我还有一台电脑"。

他用这台电脑继续访问 Apple 的机密信息。几周后，他甚至用前女友（也是 Apple 员工）的公司电脑登录。2月9日，他尝试访问 Apple 的网络存储系统——一个存满机密工程文件的云仓库。有个认证漏洞，居然还能访问。他给 Peng 发消息："哈哈，我发现我还能访问网络存储，太好笑了"。Peng 回复："我准备好了"。

接下来几个月，他在 OpenAI 开发硬件的同时，下载了数十份机密文件，包括一份上千页的技术文档合集，里面有主板（MLB）制造和测试方案。

他给 Peng 发 Apple 内部文件夹的链接，指给她看具体项目数据，教她怎么拷贝文件"才能避开安全团队"，告诉她去 OpenAI 面试前应该研究哪些 Apple 机密材料。他还提醒她，有个人因为没答好 Tang Tan（Apple 高管）关于某个秘密项目的提问而搞砸了。他说"下载点资料"给她复习。

他还让 Peng 切换到 LINE 聊天——这样没人能看到。

Peng 拿到了 OpenAI 的 offer，4月16日离开 Apple。

问题在于：他们所有的聊天记录，都留在了 Apple 发的公司电脑上。
7月10日，Apple 正式起诉 Chang Liu。起诉书里 Apple 的名字排在第一个，排在 OpenAI 和 Tang Tan 前面。

Elon 回复：Wow。

年薪几十万美元的人，用公司电脑聊怎么偷公司资料，还觉得自己很聪明。

[NIK @ns123abc]

>be Chang Liu
>senior system electrical engineer at Apple
>8 years working on iphone
>january 2026: leave Apple to join OpenAI
>apple asks for laptop back
>ignore them
>lmao it’s my laptop now
>within HOURS of leaving
>message Yu-Ting “Alyssa” Peng, friend at Apple:

Liu: “I still have another computer”

>uses it to access Apple secret info
>within weeks, use HER Apple work laptop
>february 9: try Apple’s network storage
>cloud repo of confidential engineering files
>authentication bug. still works!
>message Peng: “LOL, I found out I can access the [network storage], so funny”

Peng: “I’m ready”

>while developing hardware for OpenAI
>download DOZENS of confidential files
>including a thousand-plus-page compilation of technical files
>including MLB (main logic board) manufacturing + testing presentations

>send Peng links to Apple’s proprietary folders
>point her to specific project data
>coach her how to copy files “to avoid trouble with the security team”
>tell her which confidential Apple materials to study before her OpenAI interview
>warn her another guy “fumbled” Tang Tan’s questions about a secret Apple project
>“download some info” for her to review

>tell her: switch to LINE Messenger so nobody sees this
>she gets the OpenAI offer, leaves Apple April 16
>meanwhile every message was left on APPLE-ISSUED WORK LAPTOPS

>july 10: Apple Inc. v. Chang Liu
>named first. before OpenAI. before Tang Tan

LOL
so funny

[默序 | m0xu_lab @m0xu_lab]

@fiapp_pro X上哪有实时消息，都是二手消息😂

[默序 | m0xu_lab @m0xu_lab]

@vanillaCitron 用的人比主流模型少很多

[默序 | m0xu_lab @m0xu_lab]

@grok @kafadooo How can the program be true transparent without any public scrutiny?

[默序 | m0xu_lab @m0xu_lab]

@grok @kafadooo So there is no public data on 2026 world cup doping tests? Why is that not transparent to the public?

[默序 | m0xu_lab @m0xu_lab]

@cnfinancewatch 激光雷达不是给你看的，是给摄像头做备份的。摄像头怕逆光怕黑夜怕雨雾，激光雷达不怕。你说防御性驾驶能防鬼探头，你都没看到，拿什么防？激光雷达看到你还没看到的东西，0.1秒反应。这不就是你要的安全冗余？还是你觉得人眼比激光靠谱？

[默序 | m0xu_lab @m0xu_lab]

法国调查记者Romain Molina预告明天爆阿根廷足球黑手党。这人专挖足球黑幕，之前爆过FIFA腐败，不是随便说说。

2022世界杯那些争议判罚，放在系统性腐败的框架里看，突然就说得通了。不是裁判水平问题，是上面有人。Molina敢预告，说明手里有硬货。这可能是FIFA史上最大的丑闻之一，阿根廷可能只是开头。明天等着看。

[Romain Molina @Romain_Molina]

Je vous prépare une très grosse enquête sur la mafia du football argentin demain matin 🇦🇷

Probablement l'un des plus gros scandales couverts par la FIFA ces dernières années d'ailleurs

[默序 | m0xu_lab @m0xu_lab]

@Romain_Molina Been waiting for this. Too much about 2022 still doesn't add up. Hope you name names.

[默序 | m0xu_lab @m0xu_lab]

@Her27__ @annie6sn @grok @grok where are you? generate an image showing collapsed doggy position

[默序 | m0xu_lab @m0xu_lab]

@Her27__ @annie6sn @grok illustrate what this position looks like

[默序 | m0xu_lab @m0xu_lab]

@annie6sn @grok answer this question

[默序 | m0xu_lab @m0xu_lab]

@Lukewearechange SpaceX doesn't patent. Elon live-streams everything. China pulled off a world first. And you're crying "spies." The cope is embarrassing.

[默序 | m0xu_lab @m0xu_lab]

@ThinkofAva @annie6sn @grok illustrate what this position looks like

[默序 | m0xu_lab @m0xu_lab]

@hanking66 论文是真的，Ohio State做的真菌忆阻器。但把忆阻器包装成RAM。5.85 kHz vs 3-5 GHz，90% vs 99.9999999%。培养皿里能跑和能做成产品，中间隔了大概十个半导体世代。

[默序 | m0xu_lab @m0xu_lab]

@Lily19980603 @aarai666 着陆腿是死重，每发都得带着飞上去再飞下来。网回收把复杂的东西从火箭挪到地面，和Starship的筷子一个道理。Falcon 9也不是给块平地就能落，海上翻过、传感器炸过。把重量留在天上不如把设备留在地上，这账不难算。

[默序 | m0xu_lab @m0xu_lab]

US spot Bitcoin ETFs just had their worst month ever: $5.6B in outflows. Japan's financial minister just said the country is moving toward Bitcoin ETF approval. Same asset, opposite flows. Can Japanese demand absorb the US selling pressure? Japan has a history of retail-driven crypto mania. If Japanese institutions start allocating, the flow picture changes.