- Market Update
- Yesterday I signalled a long position on BTC, and the trade is currently performing well. Price action continues to hold the 85K support zone, which remains a critical level for maintaining short-term bullish structure. As long as this level is defended, the market has room for further upside.
- It’s important to note that I am not bullish on the broader trend. What I’m expecting here is a relief pump, potentially extending into the 100K area, rather than the start of any major sustained breakout. The market still lacks the momentum and underlying strength needed to target new all-time highs anytime soon.
- The next key resistance is found at 92K. A clean break and confirmation above this level would open the door to a move toward 100–107K, where heavier supply and liquidity pockets are likely to slow or reverse price. If BTC does extend into the 100–107K region, I will be shifting my focus toward short setups, anticipating that the rally will exhaust itself in that zone.
- For now, the structure is straightforward: hold 85K for continuation, break 92K for expansion, and treat the 100–107K range as a high probability area to look for shorts. This remains a tactical long scenario within what I still view as a larger corrective environment.
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- Market Update:
BTC Price: ~$87,200
Overall Outlook: Bearish. I believe we are already in a bear market, and I expect 2026 to be a bearish year.
- Short-Term Expectations (Relief Pump Likely):
High-timeframe charts on BTC (daily and weekly) are oversold and very extended. Because of this, I expect a relief pump soon, mainly to generate liquidity for a deeper move down later. This does not mean long now. Be patient and wait for the right opportunity to short, as shorting in a bear market is generally easier and more profitable than longing.
- USDT Dominance (USDT.D):
USDT.D is hitting a major resistance level, the same zone from 7 April 2025 and 5 August 2025. High timeframes are overbought, so a rejection here looks likely. If that happens, money may flow back into crypto, supporting a temporary relief rally.
- BTC Dominance (BTC.D):
BTC.D has not been spiking the way it usually does when BTC dumps. This can be viewed as short-term bullish, but caution is needed as it could also be a trap.
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- Market Update:
- BTC is testing a pretty important area on the 4H right now. Price is pushing into the 4H 50 EMA at around 89.2k and we’re already seeing some signs of rejection in this zone. It isn’t a clean breakout attempt yet and momentum still looks a bit shaky here.
- If BTC can put in a strong 4H close above the 50 EMA, then I’d be looking toward the 92k region next. There isn’t any liquidity up there. It’s simply the next logical area based on structure and how price usually behaves once this EMA is reclaimed with strength. If bulls actually manage to push through, 92k becomes the natural target.
- On the downside, there’s a clear pocket of liquidity around 85k. That area hasn’t been tapped yet and markets rarely ignore obvious liquidity for too long. A dip into 85k would make sense if price keeps struggling at 89.2k. It would clear liquidity, reset lower timeframes, and give BTC a cleaner base for any eventual move higher.
- The 4H Stoch RSI is also oversold right now and is starting to look like it could form a double top. That usually lines up with exhaustion in the move and adds to the idea that this region is a tricky spot for bulls unless they show real strength soon.
- Given how price is reacting, this is one of those areas everyone watches closely since the invalidation is obvious and the range between 89.2k and 85k is pretty clean. Either BTC finally breaks above the 50 EMA or it dips lower to clear the liquidity first.
- Overall BTC is testing a key EMA, giving signs of rejection, sitting above untapped liquidity, showing an oversold Stoch RSI setup that might double top, and still needs a solid 4H close above 89.2k before the bullish path toward 92k really opens up. The next few 4H candles should tell us a lot more.
- You could enter around $89,200 with a tight stop loss (around $90,150) and take profit around $85,000
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