Maakhor

Intersection of Culture and Money. Building a AI Financial Services business after 8 years working on Wall Street (and Bay Street).

[Maakhor @maakhor]

Closed my https://t.co/xzFu48DnCV puts for a 90% return. Dollarama reported a strong Q4 but the stock dropped 7.7% on FY27 guidance coming in slightly below street expectations. Same playbook as Dollar General two weeks ago. Beat the quarter, disappoint on the forward look. The Canadian market is less efficient than the US and these mispricings happen more often than people think. On to the next one.

[Maakhor @maakhor]

Dollarama ($DOL.TO) is one of the most mispriced stocks on the TSX. Here's why I'm bearish going into tomorrow's earnings.

The narrative is simple, recession hits, consumers trade down to dollar stores, Dollarama wins. That playbook has worked for 15 years.

But the playbook is wrong this time. Here's what the market is missing.

It is a supply-side inflation shock, and it breaks the cost model of any fixed-price-point Asian importer.

The transmission chain: Middle East war continues → oil and gas surge → Asia-Pacific feels the worst effects (30% of China's LNG comes from Qatar, Ras Laffan now struck) → container freight spikes as both Hormuz and Red Sea are threatened simultaneously → Dollarama's input costs rise on every leg of the supply chain.

The Q3 MD&A states Dollarama imports "primarily from China in U.S. dollars." Their investor presentation shows 61% of total procurement is direct import. They hedge USD/CAD 9-12 months forward, but they explicitly do NOT hedge renminbi exposure. Shipping and freight costs are unhedged. Every cost line is exposed.

Dollar General reported on March 12. They BEAT Q4 EPS by 21% ($1.93 vs $1.60 estimate). Revenue beat. Same-store sales up 4.3%. The quarter was a blowout.

The stock dropped 10%.

Why? Forward guidance disappointed. FY26 same-store sales guided to 2.2-2.7% (vs the 4.3% they just delivered). EPS guided $7.10-$7.35 when the street wanted well above $7.25. Management flagged "continued uncertainty in consumer behavior" and said gross margin expansion would be "to a much lesser extent" going forward.

The US market learned that trade-down volume does not offset margin compression from rising import costs. The Canadian market hasn't learned that lesson yet.

Tomorrow morning, Dollarama reports Q4 (fiscal year ended February 1). The numbers will look strong, this is pre-war. Watch the forward guidance. Listen for: gross margin outlook for FY27, any commentary on freight or shipping costs, what they say about their FX hedge book, and whether they acknowledge the supply chain disruption at all.

Position disclosure: I hold DOL puts. This is not financial advice. It is a macro analysis framework for discussion purposes.

[Maakhor @maakhor]

Dollarama ($DOL.TO) is one of the most mispriced stocks on the TSX. Here's why I'm bearish going into tomorrow's earnings.

The narrative is simple, recession hits, consumers trade down to dollar stores, Dollarama wins. That playbook has worked for 15 years.

But the playbook is wrong this time. Here's what the market is missing.

It is a supply-side inflation shock, and it breaks the cost model of any fixed-price-point Asian importer.

The transmission chain: Middle East war continues → oil and gas surge → Asia-Pacific feels the worst effects (30% of China's LNG comes from Qatar, Ras Laffan now struck) → container freight spikes as both Hormuz and Red Sea are threatened simultaneously → Dollarama's input costs rise on every leg of the supply chain.

The Q3 MD&A states Dollarama imports "primarily from China in U.S. dollars." Their investor presentation shows 61% of total procurement is direct import. They hedge USD/CAD 9-12 months forward, but they explicitly do NOT hedge renminbi exposure. Shipping and freight costs are unhedged. Every cost line is exposed.

Dollar General reported on March 12. They BEAT Q4 EPS by 21% ($1.93 vs $1.60 estimate). Revenue beat. Same-store sales up 4.3%. The quarter was a blowout.

The stock dropped 10%.

Why? Forward guidance disappointed. FY26 same-store sales guided to 2.2-2.7% (vs the 4.3% they just delivered). EPS guided $7.10-$7.35 when the street wanted well above $7.25. Management flagged "continued uncertainty in consumer behavior" and said gross margin expansion would be "to a much lesser extent" going forward.

The US market learned that trade-down volume does not offset margin compression from rising import costs. The Canadian market hasn't learned that lesson yet.

Tomorrow morning, Dollarama reports Q4 (fiscal year ended February 1). The numbers will look strong, this is pre-war. Watch the forward guidance. Listen for: gross margin outlook for FY27, any commentary on freight or shipping costs, what they say about their FX hedge book, and whether they acknowledge the supply chain disruption at all.

Position disclosure: I hold DOL puts. This is not financial advice. It is a macro analysis framework for discussion purposes.

[Maakhor @maakhor]

@rbfintwit @TMTLongShort With this calls absolutely backfiring, the $7,000 from Bibi and Larry must be his main source of income. Hopefully they are paying him (and are only shafting the goyim).

[Maakhor @maakhor]

@TMTLongShort Brother, you don’t understand how global Jewry works, it’s a 40 year dream being fulfilled by Netanyahu.

Everything after that is a second / third order effect.

This administration has been a complete disaster, only person who gets anything of value is Miriam Adelson.

[Maakhor @maakhor]

@disruptorinvest Prof - they shouldn’t be doing M&A, execute on the core competencies and the product. The stock is a show me story, and hopefully the management team understands. There is another forever war looming, they need to be laser focused on executing.

[Maakhor @maakhor]

In my quarterly preview, I was looking for:

(1) Did revenue hold above $21M? (Revenue - $25m) Ideally $25M+
(2) Did gross margins hold at 15% or push toward 20%? (Gross Margin - 24%)
(3) Is EBITDA breakeven or positive? (Adjusted EBITDA - $1.8m)

Good set up for the stock to go vertical.

[Maakhor @maakhor]

AMPX remains my biggest holding. I've been adding since my initial post and DCA'ing along the way.

Wrote up my full thoughts going into Q4 earnings. The short version: the qualitative story has been told. Customer wins, defense contracts, manufacturing diversification, new CEO. The market heard it, ran the stock from $3 to $16, and then said "prove it."

Now it's about the numbers. Specifically, profitability. The CFO gave us the math on Q3: another $10M in revenue at similar margins and they're adjusted EBITDA positive. That's the whole ball game for Q4.

My focus heading into the call: (1) Did revenue hold above $21M? Ideally $25M+ (2) Did gross margins hold at 15% or push toward 20%? (3) Is EBITDA breakeven or positive?

Any real momentum on the profitability front and I think this stock re-rates back toward its previous highs. The business is fundamentally stronger than when it was at $16. The balance sheet is cleaner ($92M cash, no debt, ATM done), the manufacturing network is broader (U.S., Korea, China), and they just named L3Harris as a customer for the first time.

[Jack Moses ∞ @jackmoses777]

I am so bullish on the real world.

Group events. Cookouts. Sports. Parties. Animals. Music festivals. Phoneless dinners. Co-living centers. Healing centers. Retreat centers. Beautiful views. Group adventures.

These things light me up. Tech, ai, and materialism continue to disguest me more every day.

The pendulum has swung too far. A small group of soulless nerds will continue to obsess over ai, automation, effiency, and the intellect. But those of us connected to our hearts and spirits are becoming disgusted by it. We want real, and we want human.

Expect a huge countersurge of irl businesses and events in the next few years.

[Jim Bianco @biancoresearch]

We need to rule the database — and end its rule over us.

Citrini assumes AI will destroy thousands of high-paying jobs and create none in return. He’s missing the real story.

The modern job has become soul-draining, mind-numbing database slavery. Millions of talented, ambitious people spend hours of their lives chained to a screen: fixing other people’s mistakes, chasing missing fields, reformatting decks for the tenth time, and babysitting bloated spreadsheets no one will ever read.

Our entire existence is ruled by the database. You can’t board a plane, clear security, close a mortgage, pay taxes, or resolve a customer issue unless the system approves — and it’s wrong half the time. Customer service has been reduced to apologizing while you clean up someone else’s mistake.

This system is broken, expensive, and — until AI — no one saw another way.

Fear of the unknown is why AI scares so many people. They see only disruption and lost jobs because they can’t picture the world when the drudgery finally dies. This is why Citrini's piece below struck a nerve.

That’s why we don’t just want agentic AI. We need it.

We need thousands — soon millions — of intelligent agents to annihilate this soul-crushing layer. When that weight lifts, work transforms.

Humans get to do what lights us up: judgment, relationships, creativity, and solving problems that matter. The office stops being a prison. It becomes a place people genuinely want to be — buzzing with collaboration and the thrill of “we built this together.”This is the real revolution: better, richer, more human lives at work.

The transition won’t be easy. Transitions never are. But we need it.

The only question is whether the people at the top have the courage to let the old model die. Many C-suite leaders fought hard against even basic hybrid work. If they struggled with that, how will they lead the bigger reinvention coming? The bitter irony: their own jobs are most at risk.

That’s why the most exciting companies today are run by 30-year-olds with no legacy baggage. So, are the boomer executives ready to reinvent themselves, or will they scream that everyone needs to stay stuck in the past as slaves to the database, as they demanded everyone stay slaves to the office when they fought remote work?

[Maakhor @maakhor]

@colejaczko Yup, they own more but given how large AMZN, it’s a lesser bet on Anthropic when compared to Zoom.

[Maakhor @maakhor]

@colejaczko Just long Zoom, they own a portion of Anthropic.

[Maakhor @maakhor]

SJ, I wrote out my thoughts on AMPX heading into Earnings in Article form. Would appreciate any thoughts you might have, but the TLDR, I expect the focus to be on the pathway to profitability this quarter. If they can do that, I expect further rerating of this stock.

https://t.co/jan7UDEp9Q

[Maakhor @maakhor]

https://t.co/hFc1eN6HMd

[Maakhor @maakhor]

@TMTLongShort It’s funny how some people joke about going back 25 years and buying Apple / Amazon stock or whatever, but when the next paradigm change is staring them in the face, they choose to ignore it.

AI commoditizes talent, creativity will be the differentiator.

[Maakhor @maakhor]

AMPX remains my biggest holding. I've been adding since my initial post and DCA'ing along the way.

Wrote up my full thoughts going into Q4 earnings. The short version: the qualitative story has been told. Customer wins, defense contracts, manufacturing diversification, new CEO. The market heard it, ran the stock from $3 to $16, and then said "prove it."

Now it's about the numbers. Specifically, profitability. The CFO gave us the math on Q3: another $10M in revenue at similar margins and they're adjusted EBITDA positive. That's the whole ball game for Q4.

My focus heading into the call: (1) Did revenue hold above $21M? Ideally $25M+ (2) Did gross margins hold at 15% or push toward 20%? (3) Is EBITDA breakeven or positive?

Any real momentum on the profitability front and I think this stock re-rates back toward its previous highs. The business is fundamentally stronger than when it was at $16. The balance sheet is cleaner ($92M cash, no debt, ATM done), the manufacturing network is broader (U.S., Korea, China), and they just named L3Harris as a customer for the first time.

[Maakhor @maakhor]

https://t.co/hFc1eN6HMd

[Maakhor @maakhor]

https://t.co/hFc1eN6HMd

[Maakhor @maakhor]

@TheMichaelEvery There are decades where nothing happens and there are weeks where decades happen

[Maakhor @maakhor]

@pepemoonboy The issue is America has a system, you can't just have a buffoon in there frontrunning every thought that tickles his fancy.

[CF @Clearingfog_]

Have used Claude for value creation plans we pitch to sellers and internal valuation memos...and it doesn't save time it just increases and improves the output.

Where as before one would spend 20 hours researching how much of fixed income trading is voice vs electronic one spends 30 mins on that then 19.5 hours fine tuning thesis, understanding the participants, how xyz target could attack them etc.

The bar of excellence has increased...but there is always more to do.

[Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy]

Another phenomenal podcast interview with @TheMichaelEvery and a must-listen.

The USD Ecosystem is not only here to stay, it’s about to get a huge shot in the arm as USD-backed Stablecoins create another “Eurodollar” market for RoW.

https://t.co/3rPGwvNEM8