Maax

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Been following all this since 2014

Languages I speak: Deutsch 🇩🇪, Українська🇺🇦, English 🇺🇸, Русский 💀 et un petit peu Française 🇨🇵

[Maax @maaxamv]

Regarding today's massive missile attack on #Ukraine [1/15]

There wasn't a strike for a month. And, to be honest, it bothered me. After all, the potential reproduction of missiles by #Russia was 3-5 missiles per day.
In conclusion...

[Ukraine / Україна @Ukraine]

🌊The Dnipro and the Tisza flow through a shared home — Europe.

Congratulations to the people of Hungary 🇭🇺

[ChrisO_wiki @ChrisO_wiki]

@JakubKrupa @irgarner Incredible historical resonances here with the revolution of 1956.

[Lili Bayer @liliebayer]

More scenes from Budapest this evening.

[Iman Jalali @Stealx]

Khamenei is dead. Good.

But I have family in Iran. My dad is there right now. And I'm not celebrating yet. Here's why.

Iran built the most layered contingency plan on Earth for this exact moment. Four levels of succession for every key position. Pre-authorized military strikes. Regional commanders who don't need orders from Tehran to act.

As you read this, there is already a new Supreme Leader. We just don't know who.

This isn't Maduro. The government didn't get overthrown. The system absorbed the hit. That's what it was designed to do.

Every credible intel assessment says the same thing: a post-Khamenei Iran is more likely to get harder, not softer. More IRGC. More dangerous. Potentially worse for the Iranian people than Khamenei himself.

Don't breathe yet. There's a long way to go.

[WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧 @WarMonitor3]

Full scale US military operations ongoing in Venezuela video shows special forces moving in with airforce hitting targets all over.

[marqs @MarQs__]

@NOELreports What is the point of him making this nonsense comments every few weeks?!

[Maax @maaxamv]

@astraiaintel A ceasefire alone removes the very mechanisms that keep the Kremlin afloat.
The only way it survives a post-war shock is if the US/EU actively PROP UP the Russian economy.
And that wouldn't be just a “ceasefire”, that'd be a full on Marshall Plan for Putin.

[Maax @maaxamv]

@astraiaintel It’s not about "humanities". It’s about state capacity.
Russia can ignore veterans morally, but it can’t ignore the fiscal math, just like Sadam and Napoleon couldn't just pause or stop their wars. Any ceasefire cause demobilization shock and the collapse of the war economy cycle

[Business Ukraine mag @Biz_Ukraine_Mag]

Any “peace plan” that calls for Ukraine to disarm is an obvious attempt to prepare the ground for the next stage of Russia’s invasion. There is no other conceivable reason to weaken Ukraine’s defenses. Nobody can seriously believe Moscow views Ukraine as a military threat

[Maax @maaxamv]

@KurumiT59699919 @astraiaintel Putin doesn’t want a frozen line tho, he wants leverage and momentum. A ceasefire only works for Russia if UA is forced to disarm, stop striking, and accept RU control - that’s not a ceasefire, that’s capitulation. So no, I don't think Putin has a “ceasefire button.”

[Maax @maaxamv]

@KurumiT59699919 @astraiaintel A ceasefire itself would already be a HUGE strategic loss for UA. It freezes RU gains, blocks UA strikes, gives Moscow time to rearm and turns occupied areas into permanent leverage. Pokrovsk’s coal doesn’t change that dynamic imo.

[Maax @maaxamv]

@KurumiT59699919 @astraiaintel Pokrovsk WAS economically massive. But that value is sadly already gone. The mine is shut down, infrastructure damaged, logistics rerouted + UA’s industry has shifted west. And honestly, I doubt either side can turn this rubble back into a functioning industrial hub anytime soon.

[Maax @maaxamv]

@KurumiT59699919 @astraiaintel Yes! Pokrovsk buys UA the time needed for the kinetic sanctions to hit and ease the demographic pressure - and that’s basically the only path to victory.

[Project Liberal @ProjectLiberal]

We agree with Charlie Kirk on basically nothing.

Except that he deserves the right, as every human does, to speak freely without the threat of violence.

[Richard Woodruff 🇺🇦 @frontlinekit]

"Violation of NATO airspace by Russian drones is deeply concerning."

Jesus fucking christ, we're all just a bunch of spineless wankers at this point, I can hear Putin laughing his ass off that he got to bomb NATO and all we have is words of concern.

[MilitaryLand.net @Militarylandnet]

Ten years ago, on August 31, 2014, the battle of Ilovaysk ended. What initially favored the Ukrainians turned tragic when Russian forces crossed the border. Hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers and volunteers were massacred during their withdrawal through agreed humanitarian corridors.

[Andrew Perpetua @AndrewPerpetua]

Putin is conceding terms in negotiation in large part because the Russian economy is severely hurting. Military signing bonuses are being dramatically reduced due to budget shortfalls, companies are going out of business left and right, inflation is nasty, and China is manipulating Russian markets to damage Russian industries. Soon Russia will need to increase their shadow mobilization to make up for the volunteers lost as signing incentives shrink, shocking both public perception of the war and the economy all over again.

Russia is in serious danger, and nobody should be bailing out Putin now. This is the time to tighten the screws and watch him squirm. Everything is unfolding exactly how the (actually good) economists have been predicting for the past two years.

Trump's election, and his immediate relief to Putin helped Russia substantially. And Trump is the sort of stupid who would fall for Putin's tricks.

BUT

Russia is racing against time. We should use time AGAINST them, and not allow them to wriggle out now while they superficially appear strong. (a lesson straight from the Russo-Japanese war)

For years we've said that eventually Putin will realize he has run out of options and sue for peace. The correct response is simple: wait six months and get back to him.