“ - India’s rise is “unstoppable” and determined by India’s own strength, not by the mistakes of others
- Technology and demography are the two big forces driving change in global order
- No country is fully dominant today across all dimensions (economy, military, tech, diplomacy) — power is dispersed
- India’s growth will act as a “lifting tide” for the Indian Ocean Region; countries working with India will benefit more
- nations’ rise depends on internal strengths, not others’ policies “ - EAM Jaishankar
Key factors influencing depreciation of INR
The precipitous fall in net FDI (as seen in the chart below) over the last two years onward can be explained by higher repatriation, higher outbound investment, tougher global financing conditions and investments moving to safer havens in light of mounting global geopolitical risks.
Apart from flight of FPI capital due to (i) capital chasing the AI trade, (ii) Indian companies largely seen as overvalued relative to other EM peers, (iii) unfavourable tax regime, and higher global energy prices putting downward pressure on the Rupee, weak net FDI inflows is a key reason as to why the Rupee has been weakening wrt the USD over the past few years.
A crucial macro factor today is US 10 year bond yields. They have moved up from 4.16% on January 1, to 4.60%. It reflects increasing strain for US borrowing program as US debt nears $ 40 trn. When the US sneezes, world gets a cold. Watch out for bond yields around the world.
India’s WPI print came in at 8.3% Y/Y in April 2026 - is this a cause for concern?
India’s WPI growth rate at 8.3% y/y in April 2026 marks a 42 month high.
WPI measures mainly changes in producer goods prices based on input costs to producers and more sensitive to commodity price shocks. CPI measures price changes for both goods and services at the consumer end. WPI usually affects CPI with a lag.
During COVID, WPI did not bleed into CPI much as shown in the graph below — this was mainly because demand destruction from reduced economic activity during COVID kept prices in check.
Demand destruction in the present context is not likely to happen immediately (unless crude prices hit 150-160 USD pb, which looks improbable or crude stays at elevated levels for many months), and hence WPI can be expected to bleed into CPI numbers in the months ahead.
@latha_venkatesh