Macro-Advisory Ltd

Macro-Advisory Ltd. is an independent Eurasia-based consultancy providing investors with a strategic advisory service

[Chris Weafer @ChrisWeafer]

I've attached a link to my interview with Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, where I discuss the future of global energy market stability following the attacks in the Gulf. We explore why this supply disruption could prove far more significant than previous energy shocks.
https://t.co/6N0wvY79Ft
#OOTT #Russia #Energy #IranWar‌
#Iran #MiddleEast

[Chris Weafer @ChrisWeafer]

I joined @AJEnglish’s Inside Story to discuss the UAE’s decision to leave OPEC—what it means for OPEC’s future, oil markets, and shifting regional power dynamics. Watch here: https://t.co/ItOS4KgGdN #InsideStory #OPEC #UAE #OOTT #SaudiArabia #Russia

[Chris Weafer @ChrisWeafer]

My comments about the UAE leaving OPEC and what it means for the future of the organisation and for long-term oil pricing. “President Donald Trump has managed to achieve what the U.S. Congress — which has always viewed OPEC as an illegal cartel — has threatened for many decades. His actions in the Gulf have led to what now looks like the end of OPEC, certainly as the power it once was”
https://t.co/dq2ERrdnQy
#OPEC   #OPEC+    #OOTT    #Russia    #UAE   #Iran    #SaudiArabia

[Chris Weafer @ChrisWeafer]

I recently participated in a discussion on Turkish TRT regarding the potential risk of a recession arising from the sharp increase in energy and related costs. The full segment can be viewed at the following link:
https://t.co/zWOxRHjWzD
#OOTT #energy

[Macro-Advisory Ltd @macro_advisory]

#Turkmenistan appears to be finally in the right place at the right time. It has the world's largest undeveloped gas reserves, which is now of greater interest to #China and to the EU as a result of the disruptive wars in the region. It is also an increasingly important transit route from Europe to China and it can be a big provider of green energy to the so-called Green Energy Corridor. The Gulf War is propelling Turkmenistan from Hermit State to an important energy and transit country between Europe and China. See my article published in Neglobal using this link https://t.co/Y1yDidXRTe #CentralAsia #GulfWar #Caspian #NaturalGas #MiddleCorridor #OOTT

[Chris Weafer @ChrisWeafer]

My appearance on Al-Jazeera TV discussing global trade disruption and energy security, especially for the European Union
https://t.co/wNUt6ET1Cn
#OOTT #Iranwar #Gulfwar

[Macro-Advisory Ltd @macro_advisory]

My comments and observations about the oil price trend expected after the fighting ends. Because of the damage already sustained, it will be 12 months, at least, before previous production of oil and (especially) gas can be restored. Also, the legacy of fear of a repeat will mean that insurance cover will be tight for a long time. https://t.co/aF1TO6DVcn #OOTT #LNG #IranWar‌ #Gulfwar

[Macro-Advisory Ltd @macro_advisory]

In the Kyrgyz Republic, President Japarov continues to consolidate his power with the further clear out of people close to the former Head of State Committee for National Security, Kamchybek Tashiev. Tashiev used be part of a power-tandem in Bishkek until Japarov fired him in February in what was seen as a high-risk gambit for sole power. Most recently Tashiev’s brother was forced to resign from parliament on the back of a social media campaign discrediting him. Also gone are other Tashiev loyalists, including the mayor of Osh, the country’s southern capital and the location of many political protests in the past. Japarov’s actions remain in the high-risk category. #KyrgyzRepublic #CentralAsia

[Macro-Advisory Ltd @macro_advisory]

India and Russia have agreed to prepare for the resumption of direct supplies of LNG (Reuters, citing sources). This is because of the suspension of LNG exports from the Gulf which, according to industry sources, will take at least one year to fully repair even if the war stops tomorrow. If India decides to proceed with the deal, negotiations could be completed within a few weeks. This will coincide with the start of the EU’s program to finally end the import of Russian LNG and piped gas this year. Moscow has stated that once it diverts LNG from the EU market (circa 15 mln tons which is equal to 14% of total imports) it will not be quick to return to the market even if the EU changes its plan. #OOTT #India #Russia #LNG #GulfWar

[Macro-Advisory Ltd @macro_advisory]

Kazakhstan lays claim to having the world’s “most beautiful” flag. It achieved the accolade in an online tournament organized by the Reddit platform. The competition was held in a playoff/knockout format, where participants voted round by round for the best national flag design. In the final round, the Kazakh flag defeated the flag of Kiribati, which depicts a rising sun and a bird above ocean waves. Bhutan, known for its traditional dragon emblem, finished in third place. Borat would be proud. #Kazakhstan #CentralAsia

[Macro-Advisory Ltd @macro_advisory]

Eid Mubarak to all our friends and clients celebrating the end of the Holy Month of Ramadan.

[Chris Weafer @ChrisWeafer]

I spoke with CGTN TV to discuss Russia’s position following the easing of certain U.S. sanctions on oil exports. The interview link is below. #Russia #Sanctions #Oil
https://t.co/TvRxcYpsRr

[Chris Weafer @ChrisWeafer]

I participated in a very interesting discussion on Al-Jazeera TV yesterday about the impact of the Iran war on energy markets, concerning Russia and EU energy positions in particular. Here is the link to the program
https://t.co/C5hk7lpRP6 #OOTT #Russia #EUEnergy #Iran #IranWar‌

[Macro-Advisory Ltd @macro_advisory]

Transparency International has published the annual Corruption Perception survey for 2025. Within the Eurasia region, only Azerbaijan has shown a meaningful improvement, from 154th place in 2024 to 130th in 2025. Ukraine and the Kyrgyz Republic recorded modest gains. Belarus and Mongolia dropped 10 places (each from joint 114th to joint 124th) and Kazakhstan fell 8 places to 96th #Eurasia #Georgia   #Azerbaijan   #Russia  #Corruption #Kazakhstan  #Belarus   #Ukraine

[Macro-Advisory Ltd @macro_advisory]

The same factor has helped Azerbaijan. President Aliyev is feted in the White House, and the country is promising to send more gas and green electricity to the EU. That, it seems, is enough to improve the country’s ranking to 130th from 157th three years ago. So, not so much a survey giving useful guidance to actual corruption trends, but a survey of political perception and reflecting headlines about corruption, whether good or bad is less important. #Eurasia #Georgia   #Azerbaijan   #Russia   #Corruption #Kazakhstan    #Belarus   #Ukraine

[Macro-Advisory Ltd @macro_advisory]

But one must question whether this survey is any longer a true reflection of corruption in each country or should the emphasis be on the “perception” of the country in terms of political stability or news flow? Mongolia may feel particularly aggrieved with its ranking (124th vs 114th in 2024) as the government really stepped up its efforts to weed out state level corruption from early last year, and has charged several former officials over the major coal export scandal. It seems the headlines about corruption (even if about tackling it) are enough to change the “political perception”
#Eurasia #Georgia   #Azerbaijan   #Russia   #Corruption #Kazakhstan    #Belarus   #Ukraine

[Macro-Advisory Ltd @macro_advisory]

Macro-Advisory Ltd. and ISTAR Capital launch a strategic partnership delivering Eurasia intelligence to global investors—bringing together two independent firms committed to rigorous, high-impact research and actionable market insight across some of the world’s most complex and fast-evolving markets.

[Macro-Advisory Ltd @macro_advisory]

The war in the Gulf positions Russia in a relatively good position: China will buy all available Russian LNG and at market price and with summer approaching, the Northern Passage will be available to switch LNG from the EU; India is already reported to be buying Russian oil, which was stranded on tankers and, also reportedly, at greatly reduced discounts; Russia’s negotiating position with China regarding Pos2 is improved; The Russian federal budget will have a much better result in March as discounting eases/ends and because there are eager buyers of Russian oil and oil products. #OOTT #LNG #Russia #China #India #PowerofSiberia2