Dan Rose

Portfolio Strategist @ Rimrock Capital

Markets are a probability distribution of uncertain outcomes, convexity is compounding right tails and cutting the left

[Dan Rose @macrobasis]

As a US citizen, the annual interest expense to fund the US federal government's debt is now ~$3,200 per person - the highest in history.

[Dan Rose @macrobasis]

The model of borrowing expensive money to buy bitcoin works well when the investment is going up…

[Dan Rose @macrobasis]

The US consumer feels comfortable running much lower savings rate today than historically - with 40+% of Americans lacking an emergency savings fund

[Dan Rose @macrobasis]

Central banks are still paying for the last time they called a supply shock “transitory.” At the Fed, the word may no longer be allowed in the vocabulary.

[Dan Rose @macrobasis]

After several years of banks tightening standards and curbing lending, banks are now providing a tailwind to the business cycle

[Dan Rose @macrobasis]

The US exceptionalism story takes center stage again while Europe looks to restart from its 3rd energy crisis in 5 years

[Dan Rose @macrobasis]

The last time the combination of inflation and growth was at these levels, the ECB was cutting interest rates... will this prove to be a policy mistake by responding to an energy supply shock with rate hikes?

[Dan Rose @macrobasis]

Real income is a strong leading indicator as the consumer drives much of the resilient US economy - rising inflation against weak wage growth is a headwind for 2H-2026

[Dan Rose @macrobasis]

The resiliency of the US economy can largely be attributed to just two things - 1) AI capex and 2) the top 10% of income earners... which is especially circular this cycle. A rug pull could compound quickly...

[Dan Rose @macrobasis]

The price for technology components has historically been disinflationary over time... until now. When several trillion dollars is getting spent on a sector over the next few years where the companies are largely price insensitive, a demand shock has made prices go parabolic. This has implications to inflation in the US.

[Dan Rose @macrobasis]

The Fed's insurance cuts late last year are just now driving a reacceleration in the business cycle with PMIs expanding and earnings expectations near 40-year highs...

[Dan Rose @macrobasis]

The melt up is being super charged by short-term upside call activity squeezing markets higher

[Dan Rose @macrobasis]

Capex outside of tech investment signals caution for the economic outlook, but when hyperscalers are spending the scale they are it more than masks the capex weakness

[Dan Rose @macrobasis]

During elevated inflation regimes like we're in today, bonds add risk to portfolios for far worse return - which puts pressure on yields

[Dan Rose @macrobasis]

The price to buy insurance on a US default over the next 12-months is rising - a popular hedge fund macro trade

[Dan Rose @macrobasis]

The odds of congress flipping is increasing the risk of more hail mary tails over the next few months

[Dan Rose @macrobasis]

Oil markets are as efficient of a supply/demand curve as you can find in real time we see the prices respond... as the saying goes the best cure for higher prices is higher prices

[Dan Rose @macrobasis]

Oil markets are driving rates markets - but the direction is less relevant and it's more about the duration we stay up here at elevated oil prices that matter

[Dan Rose @macrobasis]

Taking stock of what markets are expecting ... higher oil, stagflation, and democrat sweep

[Dan Rose @macrobasis]

Markets feel far worse than the benchmark returns look... cross asset vol is comparable to Liberation day with no where to hide in a sea of red