MacroKurd

Emerging and Submerging world. I read between the lines.
* All views are strictly my own

[MacroKurd @macrokurd]

@RaBawmjs Nah not really.....u just gotta know how to swagger your way in ;-)

[MacroKurd @macrokurd]

1. Get yourself to House of Koko (befriend a member)
2. Avoid Shard. Soho for restaurants.
3. Isabel for drinks, then find way into Nyx down the road after if u a partyer.
4. Ronnie's is class. Jazz Cafe Camden more fun.
5. Shoreditch if <35yrs, Mayfair/Marylebone if >35yrs.

[young @yoitsyoung]

London: for my followers flying in
1. The Box > Dear Darling
2. Avoid the Shard at all costs
3. Isabel (Mayfair) is underrated, and comes with a dance floor
4. Ronnie Scotts is like Tomi Jazz, except you can pay to skip queue
5. Shoreditch is the Bushwick of United Kingdom

[MacroKurd @macrokurd]

@AngelInvestGuy The house on a Thursday is great (Fri and sat busier but more younger crowd). Also live small gigs in one of the bars on a Thursday.

[MacroKurd @macrokurd]

Economic cycles is a symptom of a pendulum swing of leverage between public and private balance sheets.
We spent almost 2 decades (since GFC) shifting leverage from the private balance sheet to the public balance sheet.
We are now in the throes of swinging back the other way.

[Daniel Lacalle Official Account @dlacalle_IA]

Hiking rates in an external energy shock does not reduce energy prices and means engineering a private sector recession while the geopolitical premium on oil and gas does not change and the government continues to spend like a drunken sailor regardless of rates.

[MacroKurd @macrokurd]

Prolonging the process to next week, post Israel elections and before midterms.
Iran waiting for a fall in Bibi and Trump losing midterms so they can come out and say:
''You wanted regime change, we gave you regime change''

[MacroKurd @macrokurd]

@ZavCorin I always miss it. Summer is great but really London is about 24Nov-24Dec every year

[MacroKurd @macrokurd]

100% factual

[Jessica G. Obeid  @Jessica_Obeid]

Nowhere in the world is as magical as London at Christmas ✨

[Brivael Le Pogam @brivael]

A congresswoman just told Elon Musk "See you soon."

So let's compare résumés. Because that's really what this is about.

Elon Musk moved to North America at 17. He built Zip2, then PayPal, then put almost everything he had into two companies every expert said would die: a rocket company and an electric car company. In 2008 both nearly did. He went all in anyway.

Today SpaceX lands orbital boosters and flies them again like airliners, something NASA, Russia, Europe and China considered impossible or uneconomical for 60 years. It launches most of the mass sent to orbit by all of humanity combined. It's the reason America stopped renting seats on Russian rockets to reach its own space station. Starlink brings internet to Ukrainian trenches, Amazon villages and disaster zones. Tesla forced every carmaker on Earth to go electric. Neuralink is letting paralyzed people control computers with their minds.

And to the "billionaires don't pay their fair share" crowd: in 2021 he paid over $11 billion in taxes. Widely reported as the largest individual tax bill in American history. One man. One year.

His stated goal is to make life multiplanetary so that consciousness doesn't die on a single rock. You can think that's crazy. He has delivered on enough "crazy" that betting against him has become a bad habit.

Now Yassamin Ansari.

Stanford, international relations. Intern for Nancy Pelosi. Climate advisor at the UN. Phoenix City Council. Won her congressional primary by 39 votes. A whole career spent inside institutions that run on other people's money. Never built a product. Never had a customer. Never faced a market.

The day after her party won Congress, what's her top priority for day one? Cheaper housing? Energy? Competing with China?

No. Pause advanced AI. Ban "superintelligence."

The bill she backs freezes any model trained above 10^25 operations until a brand-new cabinet-level Department of AI gets staffed and writes its rules. Violators face up to 20 years in prison.
Let that sink in. The industry that, by one Oxford Economics estimate, drives about a third of recent US growth, frozen by people who have never trained a model, while waiting for a federal agency that doesn't exist yet. Beijing couldn't have written it better.

And yes, Elon has warned about AI risk for a decade. That's exactly the point. His answer to risk was to build, compete and put better systems in the arena. Hers is a committee, a freeze and prison terms. One looks at a hard problem and builds. The other looks at a hard problem and asks for a permit to stop everyone else.

Then the cherry on top: her reply to the man who built the rockets is "See you soon." Coming from someone whose only real power is the ability to stop others from building.

This is the real fault line of our time. Not left vs right. Builders vs administrators of envy. A system that selects people who have never created anything and gives them authority over the people who create everything. A political class that turns resentment into legislation and calls it "safety."

I'm French. I've watched this movie. Europe wrote the world's most ambitious AI rulebook. Now count how many of the world's top AI models are European.

I genuinely hope humanity grows out of this model. A civilization where its most mediocre managers summon its most extraordinary builders with a "see you soon" is a civilization working against itself.

"Brave New World" is right. Except the dystopia isn't the machine. It's the committee.

[MacroKurd @macrokurd]

@RajaKorman @ZavCorin @M_C_Klein @JohnHCochrane The real positive here is that the fiscal issue (+monetary as derivative) is centre stage in the political arena. They aren't sleep walking into this. The markets price it as if they were.

[MacroKurd @macrokurd]

@ZavCorin @M_C_Klein @JohnHCochrane Thanks. I actually find this fascinating and I learnt through decades of managing EM risk that the first golden rule is always: keep an open mind.

[Ricardo Penha, CNPI, CFP® @r_penhafilho]

Todo mundo discutindo QUEM vai ser o próximo ministro da Fazenda. Durigan fica? Vem o Alckmin? O Fonteles?

Samuel Pessôa cravou: vocês estão discutindo a pergunta errada.

Para ele, pouco importa o nome que vai sentar naquela cadeira. O que decide o juro não é o ministro. É a conta do gasto público.

O juro no Brasil é alto não porque o Banco Central erra. É alto porque o gasto primário cresce sistematicamente mais rápido que a economia, numa economia que já roda à plena carga.

Nos anos Lula, o gasto primário real cresceu, em média, 7,8% ao ano. A economia cresceu 4%. Quase o dobro. Quando o Estado avança sobre a economia nessa velocidade, ano após ano, a pressão inflacionária vira permanente. E o juro alto, também.

O problema, é que o presidente aparentemente não liga uma coisa à outra (não enxerga o gasto como causa do juro).

Dá pra aumentar imposto, cortar subsídio, melhorar o primário. Tudo isso ajuda na dívida e no risco-país. Mas, pra o juro real cair de verdade, só existe um caminho: o gasto parar de crescer mais que a economia.

Ou seja: a bola não está com a Fazenda. Está com o Planalto.

[MacroKurd @macrokurd]

@mrnome201 Lol

[MacroKurd @macrokurd]

Perhaps Game Theory is underrated 2/2

[MacroKurd @macrokurd]

If you are China+Iran, what would your optimal strategy be here?
Imo, you muddle through till day(s) before midterms elections.. then agree to deal.
This way you avoid conflict post midterms + not enough time for Trump admin to gain popularity for midterm elections.
Optimal!

[MacroKurd @macrokurd]

@mrnome201 3 sides. + China

[MacroKurd @macrokurd]

Perhaps Game Theory is underrated 1/2

[MacroKurd @macrokurd]

Perhaps the Iranians are waiting for post Israel elections too in a week.
Sweet spot = between Israel elections and US midterms

https://t.co/sDXuZJPTDd

[Faytuks Network @FaytuksNetwork]

🇨🇳 🇮🇷 Beijing will soon send Middle East envoy Zhai Jun to Iran, Oman and Saudi Arabia to promote peace talks and de-escalation, China’s Foreign Ministry says.

[MacroKurd @macrokurd]

I'm pretty sure this won't happen. And when it's not as bad as this, it's a sigh of relief.
And that's how these 'leaks' tend to be used.

[Leandro Ruschel 🇧🇷🇺🇸🇮🇹🇩🇪 @leandroruschel]

Se isso aqui for levado à frente, a Bolsa colapsa em 30% e o Dólar vai para R$ 6,00/R$ 6,50 na largada.

Resumindo: juro baixado na canetada, queima de reservas cambiais para segurar artificialmente o Real.

O simples fato disso estar sendo avaliado já é o suficiente para implodir o mercado.

Em pouto tempo, o Brasil voltaria à década de 80, com hiperinflação e baixo crescimento crônico.

[MacroKurd @macrokurd]

It's all about China

[Sina Toossi @SinaToossi]

Is China stepping in more assertively to advance US-Iran negotiations and help shape a more stable Middle Eastern regional order aligned with its own interests?

The simultaneous presence in Beijing of Oman's Sultan and Ali Bagheri Kani, deputy secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, is intriguing.

Chinese FM Wang Yi told Bagheri that Beijing supports Iran in defending its sovereignty and security, while emphasizing diplomacy as the path to resolving the conflict.

Al Mayadeen, a Lebanese outlet close to Hezbollah and the Iran-aligned regional camp, reports that a trilateral meeting in Beijing, coinciding with visits by Oman's Sultan and a senior Iranian security official, explored reviving Omani mediation between Tehran and Washington, backed by Chinese economic and security guarantees. These claims remain unconfirmed.

Yet such a framework could address a central obstacle to any agreement: Tehran's profound distrust that Washington will honor its commitments.

Chinese guarantees could help underpin a more durable settlement, while Beijing has its own compelling interest in preventing renewed conflict and securing energy imports from the Persian Gulf.

[Lakshmi Sreekumar @LSREnergy]

Iraq: October crude/co supply recovered to ~ 4 MBPD (~ -300 KBPD pre-war) and exports are now > 3.0 MBPD. And its not all PG flows, it is also incremental Kirkuk loadings from Ceyhan. Another fascinating recovery like KSA and UAE, using a viable bypass.

[GB News @GBNEWS]

'I don't think employers are working people.'

@CamillaTominey grills Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Emma Reynolds MP, over whether Labour has breached its manifesto pledge in the Budget.

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