MacroNavigator

nothing but data

[Jeffrey A. Hirsch @AlmanacTrader]

Don't ignore the Semiconductor (SOX) seasonal pattern. Following its June high, SOX historically enters a period of weakness that can last into October. The risk of SOX’s mean reversion accelerating is on the rise. https://t.co/GJpbkAYOk9

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Tomorrow is going to be a historic day.

Market expectations for tomorrow's Fed decision are among the most divided in recent history.

Currently, interest rate futures imply a ~30% chance of a rate hike and a ~70% chance of rates remaining unchanged.

By comparison, nearly every Fed meeting since March 2020 has entered decision day with ~99% consensus.

Adding to the uncertainty, Fed Chair Warsh has effectively eliminated forward guidance, leaving markets with little direction ahead of the announcement.

That said, we continue to believe that the Fed will NOT hike interest rates tomorrow.

It's important to not forget that just months ago, President Trump said a "pre-condition" for his next Fed Chair was a willingness to cut rates.

And, the Iran War energy shock is likely to continue being labeled as a "temporary inflationary event" rather than a structural one, the labor market is weak, and Americans are already struggling with high interest rates.

We think the Fed PAUSE continues tomorrow.

[Crypto Tice @CryptoTice_]

BREAKING:

The Fed just reversed course.

After 3 years of draining $2,200,000,000,000 from its balance sheet.
QT officially ended December 1st.

And now the Fed is buying Treasury bills again.

Technical purchases. To manage liquidity.
Call it what you want.

The balance sheet is expanding again after 3 straight years of shrinking.

Every previous time the Fed reversed from tightening to expanding.
Risk assets went parabolic.
Crypto led the charge.

QE unleashed. Bitcoin went from $5,000 to $69,000.

The same force that dragged Bitcoin from $126,000 to $60,000 on the way down.

Just turned around.

Reserves at $3,000,000,000,000 to $3,200,000,000,000. The Fed's own floor for "ample."

They stopped draining because they had to.
Now the balance sheet ticks up.

Liquidity doesn't care about the label.
It only cares about direction.

And the direction just flipped.

[Eric Balchunas @EricBalchunas]

Morgan Stanley Ether and Solana ETFs are launching today.. both charge 0.14% instantly making them the cheapest in each category. Their bitcoin ETF is up to $400m in 4mo despite launching in middle of winter. Good sign.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Token costs in freefall.

Open models win... Anthropic not so much.

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

Ta-da!

[Quinten @QuintenFrancois]

Bitcoin ETF largest inflow since May

Are we back?

[Barchart @Barchart]

Gold has overtaken U.S. Treasuries as the World's Top Reserve Asset 🤯👀

[Barchart @Barchart]

Google $GOOGL Free Cash Flow goes negative for the first time in history 🚨🚨

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Bitcoin ETFs attracted +$900 million in inflows last week, the largest weekly inflow since early May.

This marks a sharp acceleration from +$197 million in inflows in the prior week.

The largest Bitcoin ETF, $IBIT, led the surge, attracting +$193 million last week, after bringing in +$282 million the week before.

Subsequently, on Monday and Tuesday, $IBIT saw additional inflows of +$115 million and +$164 million.

This brings the total $IBIT inflows to +$501 million so far in July, on track for the largest monthly intake since April and the 3rd-largest this year.

Investor demand for Bitcoin funds is rapidly improving.

[Eric Balchunas @EricBalchunas]

SIGNS OF LIFE: Bitcoin up 8% and running circles around everything since America's 250th Birthday. ETF flows are coming back too +$750m in past week. Hard to trust it tho but also hard to imagine it doesn't rebound at some point either. I guess we'll see

[Dividendology @dividendology]

This is funny.

What if you invested in the S&P 500 every time CNBC had a "Markets in Turmoil" special?

Well... your average return after one year would be 40%, with a 100% success rate.

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🇺🇸 The retail investing boom is losing steam…

Retail traders have powered one of the longest bull runs in recent memory, but new data from VandaTrack shows the fire is starting to fade.

Net purchases of U.S. stocks have collapsed to just $13 billion over the past month, the lowest level since 2020.

Even more telling: buying in individual stocks is down a staggering 71% from earlier this year.

For the first time in a long while, retail investors are selling nearly as much as they’re buying.

This shift signals growing caution after years of euphoria.

When retail momentum slows, it often removes a key source of upward pressure on the market, especially in high-flying tech and meme stocks.

After a prolonged rally built heavily on retail enthusiasm, we may be entering a phase where institutions and fundamentals matter more again.

Source: @KobeissiLetter / Writer: Val

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

Companies are issuing shares more, buying back less.

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

That is not enough lag for the proprietary models to be comfortable let alone optimistic. The vast majority of business uses do not need that 4 months.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

"A generational transfer in free cash flow is taking place: BofA

[Jeffrey A Tucker @jeffreytucker]

White women are dropping out of the labor force at dramatic rates. We are back to 1988 levels of participation and only above the deepest depth of lockdowns. This was all predictable.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

It appears compute is not all that scarce if one of the biggest AI names is starting to sell it

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The Fed’s balance sheet rose +$11 billion in the week ending June 17th, to $6.74 trillion, the highest since March 2025.

Total assets have risen +$162.8 billion since the start of the year.

This has been driven by Treasury holdings, which have surged +$251.8 billion over this period, to $4.49 trillion, the highest since June 2024.

At the same time, holdings of Mortgage-Backed Securities have declined -$74.2 billion, to $1.96 trillion, the lowest since September 2020.

The Fed's balance sheet is now 76% above pre-pandemic levels.

The Fed's balance sheet continues to expand.

[Peter Berezin @PeterBerezinBCA]

In the initial phase of the dotcom bust, tech stocks crashed while the rest of the market went up. We may be entering a similar phase now. Ironically, this means that a good hedge for stocks may be.... other stocks.