Macropredict is live 🔮
Will the Fed cut in September? Will Bitcoin hit a new high this year?
Pick a side on real-world events — elections, crypto, sports, earnings. Stack your picks into one combo for a bigger payout.
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JUST IN: A rights group says Iran has executed more than 500 people so far in 2026. An Iranian leadership change by December 31 is priced at 17% on Macropredict.
JUST IN: Trump sharpened his rhetoric toward Beijing as US and Chinese officials met ahead of Xi's Washington visit. Xi Jinping leaving power before 2027 sits at just 5% on Macropredict.
JUST IN: Nvidia insists it can keep printing cash to fund the AI buildout. Nvidia still being the world's largest company by market cap on September 30: 93% on Macropredict.
JUST IN: The SEC proposed a new offering framework for certain crypto assets. The Clarity Act being signed into law in 2026 is a long shot at 14% on Macropredict.
JUST IN: Kevin Warsh heads to Jackson Hole for his first major speech as Fed Chair with markets hunting for rate clarity. No change in rates after the September meeting sits at 69% on Macropredict.
BREAKING: Strait of Hormuz shipping stays crippled six months into the Iran war, with a return to normal traffic by September 30 looking remote.
5% chance.
https://t.co/z9182Qz4gQ
election odds live means one thing: price in cents, updated on volume not vibes.
macropredict shows that number next to payout and 24h volume, so you see what the crowd's actually backing, not what a headline claims it believes.
BREAKING: Anthropic is now projected to post the largest IPO market cap of 2026 as the AI arms race reshapes public markets.
59% chance.
https://t.co/hLOgTXsgbR
BREAKING: Lula heads into Brazil's October presidential election as the front-runner, with Flavio Bolsonaro his closest challenger.
63% chance.
https://t.co/uRohohG1Cv
JUST IN: Truflation's July PCE read points to persistent price pressures but no Fed hike this year. A Fed rate hike in 2026 is close to a coin flip at 56% on Macropredict.
JUST IN: The Supreme Court cleared the way for Trump to enforce parts of his mail-in voting order ahead of the midterms. Republicans winning the 2026 Texas Senate race is dead even at 50% on Macropredict.
JUST IN: The US is shifting key military assets from Asia to the Middle East as the Iran war enters its sixth month. A US invasion of Iran before 2027 sits at 17% on Macropredict.
JUST IN: Taiwan indicted nine people, including Nvidia and Super Micro staff, over the alleged illegal export of AI servers to China. China invading Taiwan by December 31, 2027: 12% on Macropredict.
JUST IN: Bitcoin topped $80,000 for the first time since May after its best week in over three years. Ethereum reaching $3,000 in August is a long shot at 6% on Macropredict.
@wallstengine 3x the 2023 mark in under two years, and the OpenRouter deal barely had time to cool off before this dropped. infra layer of AI is quietly turning into the most bid-up real estate in the whole stack
@PolymarketIntel Hormuz closure threats have been priced before and never hit zero, curious where the strait risk market is actually sitting right now versus the last time this rhetoric spiked
@Sam_Badawi 3x in two years without shipping a frontier model is a hell of a market cap, would love to see that one as an actual contract with a closing date and payout multiple instead of a headline
@PeloSwing scarcity as a feature not a bug, feels like half the prediction markets on here exist because certainty is the one thing nobody wants to pay for