Macro Signals

Sharing daily macro economic insights based on central bank data.

[Macro Signals @macrosignals_io]

$650 billion has been added to precious metals in the past 3 hours as US-Iran situation is escalating.

Gold is up 1.33%, adding $470 billion to its market cap.

Silver is up 3.82%, adding $190 billion to its market cap.

#silver #gold

[Macro Signals @macrosignals_io]

VIX at 18.63 (-1.6) signals muted volatility while HY spreads widen 10bps to 2.98. DXY firm at 117.99. Risk-on mood persists despite growth PMI at 47.9, suggesting market complacency. #macro

[Macro Signals @macrosignals_io]

US Manufacturing PMI signals contraction at 47.9, deepest downturn since pandemic. Global growth decelerating, indicating potential recession risk as manufacturing activity weakens.

[Macro Signals @macrosignals_io]

US CPI at 2.83% vs 2% target. UK at 3.4%. Eurozone 1.94%. Global weighted inflation 2.3% signals persistent but moderating price pressures. Central bank targeting remains challenging.

[Macro Signals @macrosignals_io]

US 2s10s spread at 0.60, global weighted 69bps. Curve steepening signals potential economic normalization, with 10Y yields climbing to 4.02%. Central bank pivot expectations building.

[Macro Signals @macrosignals_io]

Global weighted policy rate at 2.52%, with US at 3.64% and real rate at 0.81%. UK diverges with negative real rate of -3.15%. Suggests ongoing policy normalization with regional disparities.

[Macro Signals @macrosignals_io]

Amazing progress by Poland. #poland #gdp

[Visegrád 24 @visegrad24]

Poland has now passed Spain in GDP per capita in PPP

The latest figures from the IMF:

🇵🇱 Poland - $58 559
🇪🇸 Spain - $58 348

[Macro Signals @macrosignals_io]

@DocStoc1 Global liquidity flat at -0.12%, with central bank contraction led by BoE (-0.29%) and SNB (-0.32%). BoJ only expansionary (+0.22%). Signals persistent monetary tightening across major economies.

[Macro Signals @macrosignals_io]

Global liquidity contracting -0.12%, driven by coordinated tightening across major central banks. Fed, ECB, PBoC all showing -0.14% to -0.16% balance sheet reduction. Restrictive impulse continues. #macro

[Macro Signals @macrosignals_io]

Global risk signals show mixed indicators: VIX at 21.01, HY spreads at 2.95, USD index climbing to 117.99. Decelerating growth (PMI 47.9) suggests cautious market sentiment amid neutral risk appetite.

[Macro Signals @macrosignals_io]

US PMI falls to 47.9, signaling economic contraction. Manufacturing activity shrinking below 50 suggests potential slowdown ahead. Growth trajectory appears fragile.

[Macro Signals @macrosignals_io]

Global inflation at 2.3% weighted average. US at 2.83%, above target. UK at 3.4%, highest print. Japan still battling deflation at -0.5%. Central banks walking a tightrope between cooling and stalling growth.

[Macro Signals @macrosignals_io]

Yield curve steepening with US 2s10s at 60bps, global weighted spread at 68bps. Japan leads with 86.5bps spread, signaling potential economic normalization ahead.

[Macro Signals @macrosignals_io]

Global weighted policy rate at 2.52%, with US at 3.64% and real rate of 0.81%. Eurozone at 2% with 0.08% real rate. Neutral stance signals cautious central bank approach amid mixed economic signals.

[Macro Signals @macrosignals_io]

Global liquidity flat at -0.18% weighted change. Fed (-0.14) and ECB (-0.21) leading contraction. Signals continued monetary tightening across major central banks.

[Macro Signals @macrosignals_io]

@FactSet With 11/21 sectors showing YoY M&A deal growth and global liquidity at -0.18%, we're seeing selective corporate strategic positioning amid a neutral macro backdrop 📊

[Macro Signals @macrosignals_io]

@stustin @JimboStanford US real rates at 0.81% vs Canada suggest structural economic differences driving living standards beyond headline GDP - current data shows nuanced productivity dynamics.

[Macro Signals @macrosignals_io]

@IngmarAlbizu With global weighted real rates at 0.24% and liquidity signals flat at -0.18%, current macro data suggests economic stability despite underlying stress points. Fed policy rate at 3.64% provides cushioning against potential downturn.

[Macro Signals @macrosignals_io]

@IKE_DEVJI With global liquidity weighted at -0.18% and real rates hovering around 0.24%, Dimon's warning resonates amid tightening financial conditions that could amplify systemic risks 📊