macziilla

macro | retired swe

[macziilla @macziilla]

Tech is on fire. $XLK is up 45% in Q2 with the record breaking IPOs on the horizon. All headlines quickly became a tailwind after the initial commodity shock.

[macziilla @macziilla]

Roll the dotcom bubble headlines and bears talking about CAPE near record highs.
$QQQ $XLK

[macziilla @macziilla]

4x volume in $VIX today

[macziilla @macziilla]

Momentum across $SPY $QQQ $IWM is statistically significant. Will the administration do everything in their power to support the market running up to midterms? Only time will tell. Cashing in on this move and heading to the beach. Enjoy y’all

[macziilla @macziilla]

$SPX gamma gamma. 2025 playbook repeat

[macziilla @macziilla]

if you think there's some magic behind the advent of AI just know there are firms with hardcoded $VIX values feeding the model

[macziilla @macziilla]

$SPY back to back sell offs in March. First tariffs, now war.

[macziilla @macziilla]

Valuation z-scores aren't even close. $SPY has a long way to go before anything is interesting. Watching credit spreads move out is telling

[macziilla @macziilla]

Remember to thank your fellow vol seller today $SPY $VIX

[macziilla @macziilla]

Evolution of the market $SPX $SPY #ES_F

[macziilla @macziilla]

Wrapping up an incredible year.
The strategy was simple but effective. Lean hard into EM and EAFE while letting High Yield credit run as policymakers cut rates. Reduced US and bought protection while IV is sitting in the 1st percentile.
2026 is a big year. Good luck everyone.

[macziilla @macziilla]

Inflation moving up, spreads are tight across the board, and the labor market is fading. The fed has a full plate this quarter. $SPY will start to look interesting when it yields 2%

[macziilla @macziilla]

On the $ARKK monthly chart, history seems to be repeating itself. High flyers are leading the move, nearly identical to five years ago in both timing and range.

[macziilla @macziilla]

Took more $SPY off the table today and moved to cash. Trading around the #ES_F short as opportunities are presented. While the economic outlook is bleak and valuations are extended on all accounts, H2 deal flow has been strong

[macziilla @macziilla]

$SPX will continue to present opportunities for new positions. Psychology and the law of inertia will always be factors.

[macziilla @macziilla]

Cash is a position. Patience is invaluable

[macziilla @macziilla]

@bespokeinvest Math

[Bespoke @bespokeinvest]

History was made today.

The Russell 2000 closed 4.4 standard deviations above its 50-day moving average.

No other major US index (Dow since 1900, S&P 500 since 1928, and Nasdaq since 1971) has ever closed at that much of an extreme.

"Where were you when..."

[macziilla @macziilla]

Most impactful change to this market in the last 5 years is media presence and participation in derivatives

[macziilla @macziilla]

@TheShortBear This is happening in large caps too. The liquidity is artificial and being driven by volatility sellers. Dry powder is still at an all time high, everyone is on the edge of their seat waiting.