🚨🏀 WNBA POTD #105 🏀🚨
*** POTD Record 70-34 ***
📊 Went Under 24.5 P+R Last 10/11 Games VS Suns 🌞
📊 Went Under 24.5 P+R Last 4/4 Games 🔥
( 16 , 21 , 19 , 20 )
📊 Last 26/26 Guards Went Under 24.5 P+R VS Suns 😈
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2/6⚾️Today’s Top MLB Play 1
🎮TOR@ATL #BlueJays50
⚾️Kevin Gausman u5.5 Ks (-110)
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🎯 Gausman has a strong under case here because the recent strikeout baseline is sitting below this number. He’s averaging 4.5 Ks with a 5-strikeout median over the last 10, and he’s stayed under 5.5 in 9 of those 10. That matters because his normal recent outcome has been landing at 5 or fewer, which cashes this under.
📉 Under in 9/10 last 10
📊 4.5 Ks average
🎯 5-strikeout median vs 5.5 line
📍 Stayed under in 80% of L5 and 65% of L20
🛡️ What stands out most is that the over needs one of his true spike starts. Gausman has only cleared once in this sample, with the 8-K game vs PIT, while the under results are 5, 5, 4, 3, 2, 3, 5, 5, and 5. That is a very clean under distribution because even five strikeouts still cashes.
🎯 The strongest part of the bet is the half-strikeout cushion at 5.5. He does not need to struggle badly — he can work a normal start, get to 5 Ks, and still stay under. With nine unders in the last 10, the over needs a clear jump from his usual recent strikeout band.
✅ Projection lands around 4-5 Ks based on the recent median, hit profile, and game-log distribution. At -110, the under looks playable because 6+ strikeouts has been the exception rather than the recent norm.
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