JustGuangIt

币圈8年总结 各个交易所 项目方 庄家都是把散户当畜生割，认真你就输了。

[JustGuangIt @mahuBTC]

b

[wu fan @wufantouzi]

根据期望值公式
以下其实都是正ev的机会
但是要注意下注比例

a有1%概率获得1000倍的机会
只能配置低于1%不到的仓位

b有10%的机会获得100倍的公司
可以稍微提高一点仓位

c有25%的机会获得50倍的公司
已经是凤毛麟角
必须要提高配置

d有50%的机会获得20倍的机会
已经是捡钱了
要重仓猛干

e有90%的机会获得11倍的机会
可赌身家

f有95%的机会获得10%的收益
高手和普通散户最爱的配置

一家公司如果幸运在发展的过程中
通常会经历全部的abcdef轮次
a可能是种子轮
b可能是上市前
c是刚上市
d是上市了但股价还未起飞前
e是公司已经完全获得了垄断地位
f是公司已经完全成熟市场也几乎饱和

我投过很多的一级市场就是a的状态
crcl属于b到c的状态
2017年刚买特斯拉的时候属于c的状态
到2019年tsla已经进入了d的状态
很多人是这时候买入的
e的机会比较限定比如312的btc和tsla
已经进入2020年但是短期崩盘80%给你买
f倒是配置的大头比如茅台 腾讯 qqq

巴菲特他确实太稳了
他几乎只买e和f这一种
不管你的ev有多高
巴菲特会把胜率放在第一位
也就是常说的不亏钱

纵观巴菲特的历史投资组合
巴菲特对胜率有着绝对的执着
对于赔率要求倒不是很高
有50%的收益空间他都all in过
重仓买入集中持仓
他早年买完股票进入董事会这些
包括买入可乐都是经典的案例

整体而言投资和和打德州一样
带队抽花也不稳
花顺双抽也有可能亏完
因为什么都不中也是可能的
但是花顺双抽你完全不下注
直接fall牌的只有菜鸟和绝顶高手

很多人对我的评价是客观的
我买crcl其实就是是风投的风格
我买tsla的时候也是
我比较擅长于赚发现和成长的钱
可能和早年的创业经历有关系
创业了发现了即将起飞的赛道
不是配置如果躬身入局肯定都是all in
有时候创业甚至要无限连带责任
所以发现类似机会
我用25%净值参与
其实和我之前的路径是高度一致的

对我自己而言
我想投一家公司
对这家公司所处于的轮次我是不敏感的
只要我看得懂买得起刚好手上有钱
种子轮几万块我也投
上市前几千万几个亿我也参与配售
上市后我也会买
我始终用正ev的算法
衡量这笔值不值得参与

如果你想稳健赚钱超低回撤
就只能学巴菲特
只玩e和f期间这种手牌机会
希望有一天我也能像巴菲特一样做到
只买e和f的投资机会
把所有的风险敞口做到最低
现在的我其实还是比较激进的风格
能力介于菜鸟和高手期间
我还有很大的进步空间
不用太高估我

[JustGuangIt @mahuBTC]

@xtony1314 畜生股票 哈哈

[JustGuangIt @mahuBTC]

哈哈哈

[mrjihai @mrjihai1]

@wufantouzi 天天发一些东西装逼，不如吃点狗屎冷静一下

[JustGuangIt @mahuBTC]

@xtony1314 抄底

[JustGuangIt @mahuBTC]

牛逼

[wu fan @wufantouzi]

crcl 未来会是万亿美金的公司
我重申这个观点
币圈全村的希望
现在就是稳定币

[JustGuangIt @mahuBTC]

@xtony1314 会玩

[lufei @lufeieth]

Circle CTO：

[JustGuangIt @mahuBTC]

聪明的羊是不用出手的

[JustGuangIt @mahuBTC]

这家伙一炮把自己干倒了，所以你怎么看 哈哈

[JustGuangIt @mahuBTC]

@3ethtomoon 好猛

[JustGuangIt @mahuBTC]

怕高都是苦命人，直接三倍做多半导体！
兄弟们干就完了

[JustGuangIt @mahuBTC]

@Uber_Support @Uber I have sent you a private message. Please reply as soon as possible.

[JustGuangIt @mahuBTC]

I have completed all my documentation, and everything is fully official and compliant. However, Uber still refuses to activate my account. Every time I contact customer support, they keep promising my account will be activated today. Day after day, I keep waiting, but nothing happens.

They repeatedly claim a specialized safety and support team will contact me, yet no one ever reaches out, and my account still remains unactivated. I am filing an official complaint against Uber’s local operations team in New Zealand for this ongoing negligence and lack of proper support.

[JustGuangIt @mahuBTC]

要抄底也是二次探底的时候下手，这种时候下手就是接刀子，真正的底部有的是机会买，往常的大底都会给足机会让你买，多看历史！

推特上一群大傻子，一群没经历过完整的牛熊的人长篇大论的谈行情！煞笔

[JustGuangIt @mahuBTC]

微策略这种死亡螺旋下跌，还有一些大聪明要去抄底btc，一群傻子！

[JustGuangIt @mahuBTC]

确实

[K1ko妹妹的爸比 @lilk1kopops]

黄仁勋在做增量：他把蛋糕做大了，全世界都受益。

CZ在做存量：他在蛋糕上装了个水龙头，每一笔流过的财富他都要抽一口。

黄仁勋赌算力是第一生产力。他在显卡没人要的寒冬里深耕了三十年。

CZ 的成功是抓住了加密行业流动性爆发的真空期，建立了一个高效的抽税系统。

他并没有创造任何底层的技术变革，他只是让赌博变得更顺滑。

他在风口收割存量，他的财富是这个时代给投机者的意外分红。

黄仁勋德位相配。他站在台上，全世界的科技巨头都要去对齐他的认知。因为他交付了结果，他改变了人类获取知识和算力的方式。他的每一分钱，都是靠实打实的交付货物拿回来的。

CZ德不配位。正如之前所言，他的财富规模和他的社会贡献严重脱节。他拥有世界首富级别的财富，但他的思想还停留在如何绕过监管、如何扩大流量的低级水平。他更像是一个被时代浪潮推上神坛的幸运儿，而不是一个能定义文明方向的领袖。

[Star_OKX @star_okx]

No complexity. No accident.
10/10 was caused by irresponsible marketing campaigns by certain companies.

On October 10, tens of billions of dollars were liquidated. As CEO of OKX, we observed clearly that the crypto market’s microstructure fundamentally changed after that day.

Many industry participants believe the damage was more severe than the FTX collapse. Since then, there has been extensive discussion about why it happened and how to prevent a recurrence. The root causes are not difficult to identify.

⸻

What actually happened
1.Binance launched a temporary user-acquisition campaign offering 12% APY on USDe, while allowing USDe to be used as collateral with the same treatment as USDT and USDC, and without effective limits.
2.USDe is a tokenized hedge fund product.
Ethena raises capital via a so-called “stablecoin,” deploys it into index arbitrage and algorithmic trading strategies, and tokenizes the resulting fund. The token can then be deposited on exchanges to earn yield.
3.USDe is fundamentally different from products such as
BlackRock BUIDL and Franklin Templeton BENJI, which are tokenized money market funds with low-risk profiles.
USDe, by contrast, embeds hedge-fund-level risk. This difference is structural, not cosmetic.
4.Binance users were encouraged to convert USDT and USDC into USDe to earn attractive yields, without sufficient emphasis on the underlying risks. From a user’s perspective, trading with USDe appeared no different from trading with traditional stablecoins—while the actual risk profile was materially higher.
5.Risk escalated further as users:
•converted USDT/USDC into USDe,
•used USDe as collateral to borrow USDT,
•converted the borrowed USDT back into USDe,
•and repeated the cycle.
This leverage loop produced artificial APYs of 24%, 36%, and even 70%+, widely perceived as “low risk” simply because they were offered by a major platform. Systemic risk accumulated rapidly across the global crypto market.
https://t.co/IK2gW4xUOP that point, even a small market shock was sufficient to trigger a collapse.
When volatility hit, USDe depegged quickly. Cascading liquidations followed, and weaknesses in risk management around assets such as WETH and BNSOL further amplified the crash. Some tokens briefly traded near zero.
The damage to global users and companies—including OKX customers—was severe, and recovery will take time.

⸻

Why this matters

I am discussing the root cause, not assigning blame or launching an attack on Binance. Speaking openly about systemic risks is sometimes uncomfortable, but it is necessary if the industry is to mature responsibly.

I expect there may be significant misinformation and coordinated FUD directed at OKX in the near future. Even so, speaking honestly about systemic risk is the right thing to do—and we will continue to do so.

As the largest global platform, Binance has outsized influence—and corresponding responsibility—as an industry leader. Long-term trust in crypto cannot be built on short-term yield games, excessive leverage, or marketing practices that obscure risk.

The industry needs leaders who prioritize market stability, transparency, and responsible innovation—not a winner-take-all mentality where criticism is treated as hostility.

Crypto is still early.
What we choose to normalize today will determine whether this industry earns lasting trust—or repeats the same mistakes again.

[Yanhua @yanhua1010]

我这目前看到的最清晰的Clawdbot安装教程，可以说小白也能上手了

这套教程挂咸鱼，都可以赚一台Mac mini了

[JustGuangIt @mahuBTC]

@YMSN18cm @01Exchange 还有码吗