There will be years when nothing works out
Then there will be a random month that will change your entire life.
Never stop believing in crypto.
4 weeks of a bull run can erase the pain of a 4-year bear market.
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This is manipulation mixed with 4-year cycle.
Since the October 10th crash, the biggest liquidation event in crypto history which wiped out $19 billion in 24 hours, Bitcoin has not been the same.
After that, Bitcoin crashed -54% from $126K to $58K with no real bounce like we saw in 2018 and 2022 bear markets.
We saw a nonstop dump in Bitcoin and this cycle ended with no altseason at all.
The weird thing is, since the Oct 10th NASDAQ is up 28%, reaching a new ATH of 30,764, with many stocks hitting new all-time highs.
Historically Bitcoin correlates with the US stock market, but this time almost every pump gets sold off.
Bitcoin followed and recovered with stocks even during the 2025 tariff crash, but recently it has massively diverged since the October 2025 crash, and we continue to see hundreds of millions in liquidations every other day.
I think the 4-year cycle is still intact and the crash to the bottom feels aggressive due to leverage manipulation and algo trading by big firms like Jane, which makes money from arbitrage volatility rather than price going up.
Do you think there is manipulation involved or market is following 4 year cycle ?
MSTR down -24% in this week and broke a support level it held for 830 days.
The $100 level that held through every correction since the Bitcoin ETF launched in January 2024 just broke
MSTR is trading at $85 after hours and now down -84% from its peak.
Letโs compare Bitcoin chart alongside it.
Bitcoin is down -54% from its $126k peak. Currently trading below 5% of the weekly MA 200. The same moving average that has marked the bottom of every major Bitcoin bear market in history.
Here is the scenario nobody wants to say out loud.
MSTR and Bitcoin have moved together since the ETF launched on January 11 2024. MSTR jumped 1,129% and Bitcoin jumped 225% to ATH.
If MSTR retests $40 the Bitcoin chart suggests a parallel retest of the post ETF launch support near $42,000. The same level Bitcoin was trading when the ETF changed everything in January 2024.
$100 on MSTR and $62,500 on Bitcoin are now the most important levels in the entire crypto.
If they do not reclaim these levels fast the next stop is a long way down.
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