๐จICYMI #Uranium peeps!๐๐ด Cameco's Grant Isaac told U on the company's 31 July Q2 Results Conference Call precisely why we are on the cusp of a coming Uranium bull market for the history books!โ๏ธโ๏ธ๐๐๐ On the call Grant said:
"The uranium side of the market continues to move from strength to strength. Just in general, across the industry, I think what the most notable point to make is we are still not at replacement rate demand across the industry. We still don't have utilities coming forward and collectively buying at a volume that replaces what they consume under existing contracts! And yet we find ourselves back into a mid-90s long-term uranium price on its way to 3 digits likely. And that's in the absence of replacement rate demand. And as I remind folks, we've never been at this kind of uranium price [$97] on the front end of a uranium contracting cycle. We've only ever found ourselves at these prices on the back end."
He reminded us of 2 important factors:
1. Nuclear utilities normally sign a series of 4 different contracts to order reactor fuel๐งพโ๏ธโ๏ธ๐ญ starting with the fabrication of fuel assemblies filled with enriched uranium to be loaded into reactors 1โฃ then working backwards thru SWU for enrichment of UF6 2โฃ and Conversion of drummed U3O8 into UF6 3โฃ then finally, last of all, they sign contracts with miners to supply the required drums of mined U3O8 yellow cake 4โฃ the last link in the contracts chain.๐ข๏ธโข๏ธ๐
โ ๏ธ Prices for Conversion and enrichment SWU have already skyrocketed 200-300% to all-time highs, indicating that utilities have been squeezing the conversion & enrichment markets๐๏ธ๐ signing a large volume of new service contracts, but they haven't yet signed sufficient contracts for the mined U3O8 that must be converted & enriched!๐จ
This is most evident by looking at long-term contracting volumes.๐ For the past 13 years, utilities on average globally have only been signing uranium supply contracts for little more than half the volume of uranium they have been consuming in reactors each year! Contracting has been far below what is referred to as "replacement rate" due to utilities being focused primarily on securing the most important contracts for fabrication, SWU and Conversion, putting off signing contracts for mined U3O8 until the last minute.๐ด Hence, there is a massive wave of contracting volume yet to arrive at mined U3O8, the last domino to fall in the contracts chain.๐๐ข๏ธโข๏ธ๐
2. Grant also reminded investors on the call that the published long-term Uranium price has now reached a new all-time record high of $97/lb, higher than the $95 peak during the last 2006/2007 bull market, but replacement rate contracting by utilities hasn't even started yet! ๐ฒ
The coming "replacement rate" contracting cycle is going to start off at a higher long-term price than was ever achieved at the back-end months of the last uranium bull market!
Once fuel buyers jump back into signing a high volume of new U3O8 supply contracts, the Long-term and Spot prices will go far far higher from today's already elevated base prices!โซ๐ฒ
In the first 3 years of the last Uranium bull market the long-term price rose from ~$25 in 2005 to a peak of $95 in 2007/2008, a near 4-fold price jump. Meanwhile, Spot U3O8 went from ~$20 to a peak of $136 in 2007, a near 7-fold price run!
Veteran uranium sector analysts & investors on the call understood exactly what Grant was saying to them.๐ Now U know why so many of us U sector veterans are so excited about what's yet to come when the long delayed full-on replacement rate contracting cycle gets underway!๐๐๐ฐ๐
But wait!โ There's more... ๐
As Grant said, 'replacement rate' only deals with replacing the uranium fuel that is being consumed by today's operating reactors under existing contracts signed years ago!๐โ๏ธโฝ๏ธ
Additional demand coming from ~80 new reactors under construction today (which nominally load 3 years worth of uranium fuel at start-up), shuttered plants like Palisades, Three Mile Island, Duane Arnold and others worldwide being restarted, as well as the many reactors now unexpectedly receiving new multi-decade life extensions, will drive the required amount of fuel purchasing to a level far above today's replacement rate in order to secure the much higher quantities of fuel that will be requiredโฌ๏ธ๐ข๏ธโข๏ธ๐๐ which Bloomberg recently calculated to be a +44% increase of 163 Gigawatts๐ฒ which will add around 80 Million lbs per year of new uranium demand by 2036!๐ฒ VERY exciting times ahead for U!๐
IMHO, Now is the time to get positioned to ride the coming colossal wave!๐๐
Good luck with your research & investments!โ๏ธ๐๐ฐIt's your money... invest it wisely!๐ฆ๐ค ๐
@jenstilmanydots@NeilRingdahl Lab diamonds will supplant much of the regular retail market as they are relatively cheap to make. I have a diamond factory a couple miles from my house where we have some of the cheapest power in the US.
@jenstilmanydots@NeilRingdahl I recently bought some Lucara betting there is a future for large real diamonds for people who only want the best. Synthetic diamonds are almost indistinguishable from real diamonds except with sophisticated testing equipment.
@lelandcwilkins I raised a lot of cash early this year as well. Recently I've been deploying in Mining Americas as well. Also Summit Royalties, Versamet, Uranium Royalty Corp, and Talon Metals. Buying the physical metals as well via SRUUF, CEF, PHYS, SPPP and PALL. Aussies TCG, ASL, and USL.
1 + 1 = 3. This is a great deal for both Lotus Gold and Great Quest Gold. The company will have a proven and successful management team. This will be a platform for African gold investment that should continue to grow. I'm excited about the ex-Osino technical expertise here.
Lotus Gold returning home to Namibia via RTO with Great Quest Gold $GQ.V
Heye Daun and Alan Friedman of Auryx + Osino fame are founders of Lotus and will sit on the board of the combined company.
Exciting day for shareholders of both Lotus and Great Quest.
Thursday ๐งต
5 Rules to Help Trade and Invest In and Manage a Portfolio of Junior Resource Companies
Note, these are best for individual investors.
Let's Go!
Great analysis by Luc. It suggests that support and resistance and upside targets on the TSXV Composite are not as valid as they look. Over a shorter time frame the chart should be valid but I expect it will deviate from junior miner performance over time.
Although the more widely followed TSXV Composite Index has not broken out yet, this is a nice observation that the obscure TSXV Gold Index has broken out! I am looking for the TSXV Composite to hit 900 as the next stop once 645 is decisively broken.
https://t.co/8sph54zJZb
S&P TSX Venture Gold Index has broken out of a decade-long base.
Think the TSX Venture but only Gold companies. Think of it as a smaller GDXJ.
28 companies, $490M mean cap, $305M median
Measured upside target is 53% higher but these breakouts run much farther.
@TheDailyGold Nice find Jordan! I have been watching the TSXV Composite which has not broken out yet. It is at 628 and needs to get past 645 which has been tested about 10x in the last 3 years. Once it gets past 645 it looks like about 900 is a good target on the TSXV Composite index.
You're going to see the 2nd Greatest Breakout of All Time.
Gold in 1972 was #1.
Coming up #2 is the impending breakout in Silver through $50/oz.
This is a +45-year-long base.
This chart covers 170 years. Look at how this base stands out. That speaks to how significant it really is.