It is amazing watching the Labour left assure themselves that if only the party had gone more progressive and more woke, it wouldn’t be in the electoral predicament they are in now. Shows again how anyone can believe anything if they want to enough.
Andy Burnham has gone in 24 hours from looking like the answer the left-wing and progressive camp in the UK needed to becoming “Starmer 2.0”… honestly, at this rate he won’t even make it to Westminster 🤦♂️
If Burnham stands in the by-election and then loses, will it leave the Labour government so riven and weakened that in the end the only way out from there will be a General Election?
Strip away the spin and Makerfield is not really about a single by‑election.
It’s about whether Andy Burnham can use one northern seat to bounce himself into a Labour leadership contest the country never asked for.
Labour’s NEC has cleared him to stand because they understand the prize: a Commons platform, a safe perch while the knives go in for Starmer, and a ready‑made story that “the North has chosen Burnham” to save Labour from its own leader.
But that script only works if he actually wins.
Right now the numbers are brutally simple.
In 2024 Labour’s majority here was already narrowed, with Reform snapping at their heels and the Conservatives dumped in third on about 11%.
Since then Reform has detonated through Greater Manchester: 18 of 19 seats in Tameside, 24 of 25 in Wigan, big gains in Salford, and 50% vote share in Makerfield’s local wards.
Polling aggregators now have Reform either level with or ahead of Labour in a straight fight.
The only way Burnham survives is if the anti‑Labour vote is split – and who delivers that split?
A Conservative Party that knows it cannot win, but insists on running a paper candidate anyway.
When Jacob Rees‑Mogg says there should be a pact in Makerfield, he is not being sentimental.
He is describing electoral mathematics that any half‑serious strategist can see.
A Tory withdrawal or a clear local nod towards Reform would make this a straight binary choice: Burnham’s Labour or Reform UK.
In that scenario every disillusioned Labour voter, every Conservative who wants to stop a Burnham coronation, every Green who knows Burnham will drag Labour further into cynical triangulation, has a single vehicle to register that demand for change.
If Conservatives put tribal pride over tactical reality, they are choosing to help Andy Burnham back into Parliament and onto a future Labour leadership ballot.
If they stand aside – formally or informally – they turn Makerfield into a referendum on whether Labour deserves a second leader drawn from the same political class that has already failed these towns.
It really is that stark: a vote for a third‑place Tory is a vote for Burnham; a vote lent to Reform is a vote to stop him.
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