Mate Andrasi

Agile maniac, IT savvy, conservatarian .). Unredeemable: Forever optimist and enthusiast, gym addict and a proud father !

[Mate Andrasi @Mandrasi]

The Fed is trapped: They cannot hike rates enough unless Congress slashes spending. Spoiler: They won't.
->Negative/low real rates + $1T+ interest bill exploding on $9T refi wall.
Our #SIAII SDE engine mock proves the math.
#Silver #FiscalDominance #PreciousMetals #Macro

[Mate Andrasi @Mandrasi]

@silver207141 Some might argue that the projected real inflation might exceed 4.72% per year and the discounted NAV of those earnings are dwarfed by the alternative real value realisation of silver in particular. I don't know, why else? 😆

[Mate Andrasi @Mandrasi]

Silver Physical Regime — late July snapshot
Registered COMEX stocks have been rebuilding, not draining.
Key prints (~29 Jul):
• Registered ≈ 96.2 Moz (up ~4.5–10% over 30 days)
• Total stocks ≈ 331.4 Moz
• July delivery notices robust MTD (~46 Moz) but daily stands collapsed to single digits
• Eligible-to-registered re-warranting dominant
• Lease rates still low / negative
• OI / Registered coverage ≈ 5.5×
Current regime flag: rebuild / rebuild-stable.
Linear depletion projections to 50 / 30 Moz are not applicable under present velocity.
Price has held the rising floor sequence (57–59 zone absorbed selling). Higher lows remain intact. 64 is still the shared confirmation level. Practical trigger watched: thin-liquidity flush → vertical reclaim.
Anyone else seeing the same rebuild-stable read on the latest warehouse + Issues & Stops data?

[Mate Andrasi @Mandrasi]

@BullTheoryio This is funny. Selling euros to buy yen actually artifically jacks up the DXY because the euro is weighed heavier in the basket. Smart stealth action....

[Mate Andrasi @Mandrasi]

@MakeGoldGreat The dxy doesn't measure the dollars absolute strength. It measures the relative performance against the euro,yen,pound ...other non hard currencies. Gold is money. Currencies without anchor are debt claims

[Mate Andrasi @Mandrasi]

Fiscal Dominance Watch
Four concurrent pressures:
US debt now ~$39.8 T and accelerating toward $40 T
Long-end Treasury yields testing multi-month highs / technical breakout zones
Fed balance-sheet activity increasingly supporting both domestic debt absorption and the offshore dollar funding complex (carry-trade origin)
Intensified geopolitical conflict adding a fresh fiscal and inflation residual
When the central bank is simultaneously monetising government debt and stabilising the funding markets that depend on that debt, the policy regime has already shifted.
This is the definition of fiscal dominance: monetary policy becomes subordinate to the fiscal arithmetic.
Does the current bond technical structure already price that transition, or is the market still treating it as temporary?

[Mate Andrasi @Mandrasi]

@silvertrade In the stagflationary phase of the 70s , precious metals rose faster than bond yields. It's because they react to real yields, not nominal. The same is about to happen now

[Mate Andrasi @Mandrasi]

@Oliver_MSA Absolutely. This is why the destination is inevitable. They have issued so much debt in the last 26 years that the bond markets became more powerful than the central banks. And this is where reality asserts itself eventually

[Mate Andrasi @Mandrasi]

@hajiyev_rashad It will. The current bond yields will force reality through the Fed's facade

[Mate Andrasi @Mandrasi]

@NorthstarCharts I wish I had been following you since then. But better late than never. :)

[Mate Andrasi @Mandrasi]

Gold Flag — 29 July Post-FOMC
Equities down. Bonds down. Gold up.
Precise closes:
• SPY 729.46 (−1.54%)
• 10Y yield 4.67% (+6 bp)
• Gold higher on the day (spot/futures +0.8–1.9% range)
This is the classic risk-off + fiscal-stress configuration: stocks and duration sold together while the monetary metal caught a bid.
It does not by itself change the higher-lows structure in silver or the 64 confirmation level, but it is a clean data point that the market is still pricing policy constraint and inflation residual risk at the same time.
Anyone else logging this as a flag day?

[Mate Andrasi @Mandrasi]

"Trump orders new military strikes on Iran as talks collapse, WSJ reports"

https://t.co/Pxl3EDaMEP

Oil vertical already. Bond markets gonna love Trump... mortgage rates however....

[Mate Andrasi @Mandrasi]

@fthegurus @DC_Italy -> This is why I am patient and relaxed with precious metals. The outcome and direction is inevitable. For timing: the market and frameworks will provide the signals. What do you think?

[Mate Andrasi @Mandrasi]

SIAII Threshold Watch — Treasury Auction Window 3–17 Aug
We are running the full refunding week through a structured scorecard (auction quality + risk complex + credit + labour + fiscal + oil transmission).
Key sensors this window:
• Bid-to-cover vs recent CUSIP average • Primary dealer award share (warehouse signal) • Indirect / direct bid strength • Tail size & T+1 hold • Parallel tape: SPX + HY OAS + MOVE • Real 10Y + DXY gate • Front-end funding stress
Two paths, same metals asymmetry
Yields stay elevated (10Y ~4.7 / 30Y ~5.2) → housing & haircut pressure → labour lag → credit stress later
Equity complex continues to be defended → eventual liquidity / policy relief
Both still point at the same overcrowded short base in silver. Floor sequence remains intact. 64 is the shared confirmation level. Practical trigger still watched: thin-liquidity flush → vertical reclaim. #SIAII
Anyone else scoring the 11–13 Aug coupons this tightly against metals positioning?

[Mate Andrasi @Mandrasi]

Silver still struggling to hold gains on mechanical / temporary DXY weakness.
After the multi-legged decline from the ~121 peak into the 55 major low, price has now compressed into a tight local range / candidate wedge between ~56–59.5. Higher-lows sequence remains intact so far.
Volume observation: prior elevated prints on the primary (HL). Capital is now rotating into AG — clear surge (21 M vs ~12 M avg) + relative strength while the metal is soft. AG’s print coincides with Q2 results — noted.
Reading the equity volume sequence as a candidate late-stage Wyckoff accumulation / coiled-spring setup. Criteria I’m watching: • Absorption on the complex without new lows • Sustained secondary miner participation • Local range break with volume expansion • Eventual futures OI expansion once the equity phase completes • 64 remains the structural confirmation level
#SIAII CENTAUR is flagging the flow dynamics.
What volume signatures or levels are you watching for confirmation of the accumulation / local resolution versus invalidation?

[Mate Andrasi @Mandrasi]

@Oliver_MSA @Comm_Invest Not taking profits as a hedge fund is also a bit...unusual to say the least. I did it too and lost a mortgage worth of paper gains, but in my defence I am not a hedge fund manager and learnt my lesson on optionality, paired trades, hedging and taking profits

[Mate Andrasi @Mandrasi]

@LawrenceLepard It's actually not a bad argument. 10y is benchmarked, so downstream lending is derived from 30y and 10y. 2y is more for the banks and they make profit on the difference. The oil shock + bond revolt is already restricting spending. Your thoughts?

[Mate Andrasi @Mandrasi]

It was sensible and a credible path. The moment the markets saw "no immediate hike" the relief rally gave it breath. Warsh started talking->S&P almost crashed .
By now the well informed shorts readded the suppression capital to prevent a breakout on dxy tank. We need to buy the coins up to force value acknowledgment

[Mate Andrasi @Mandrasi]

@PeterSchiff Even if he was the best Fed chair ever; you cannot undo 40years of gross irresponsibility. And as Jung said: "There's no coming to consciousness without pain".
When do you think they will drop the facade?

[Mate Andrasi @Mandrasi]

Market Stress Snapshot — 29 Jul 2026, 17:00 CEST
SPY 734.42 (–0.87%) VIX 19.82 (cents from 20) US 2Y 4.320 | 10Y 4.638 Brent 87.66 (+6.8%) USD/JPY 163.83 | DXY 101.33 Silver 57.05 (–0.82%) Near-dated SPY puts: heavy ITM/ATM volume (735 put alone >71k)
Pressure building• Soft data wall (Consumer Confidence miss + MBA –6.4%) • Mild MoF warning strike this morning (yen strength + simultaneous US yield spike in thin liquidity) • Dollar near annual highs while neither equities nor bonds are comfortable • Oil surge adding fresh inflation/geopolitical impulse on rising yields
Loaded triggers• CTA short-term threshold already broken • VIX sitting on 20 — the nearer tripwire • Large put walls already ITM; market makers defending by buying the underlying
The self-reinforcing loopVIX through 20 intensifies systematic selling → presses market-maker absorption capacity → yield spike raises collateral haircuts → VaR limits hit → market makers forced to dump the shares they bought to hedge the put walls → more selling → higher VIX → more systematic flow → further yield pressure.
Result: a microstructure + rates + systematic cascade that does not require the larger mid-term CTA levels to fire first.
Second-orderAn equity move of that magnitude hits capital-gains tax receipts and employment with a lag. That combination raises the political and fiscal cost of staying restrictive and increases the probability of a forced Fed response.
Will the Fed blink first? #SIAII

[Mate Andrasi @Mandrasi]

@Oliver_MSA @Comm_Invest I find this fascinating. I understand hedge funds being caught off guard: A margin call is a margin call. But retail happily selling into weakness when believing in fundamentals- I cannot get my head around. Is it psychological?