Shubham

Get busy living or get busy dying

#Swing Trader

[Shubham @maneshubham07]

missing dream 11. sala ipl mai maza hi nhi aa raha .
#IPL26

[Shubham @maneshubham07]

Flop of the World cup
Abhishek sharma 👀😰
#T20WorldCup #AbhishekSharma
#iran

[Ankur Patel @AnkurPatel59]

When you tell your relative that you do Trading for living.

Relatives :

[Shubham @maneshubham07]

@thechartist26 Teacher
I teach science subject in a coaching institute

[Day End Trader @dayendtrader]

1. Supercycles (like the one happening in commodities right now) are extremely lucrative. But they are very rare and you need to capitalize on them with size if you want to really change your life. Them being rare also makes it tough to practice them in real world markets. Overall, this makes the entire task very tough.

These charts make for amazing marketing tools if you are selling something that is affiliated to them. But I'd really like to know how many people actually bought and held these metals with god enough size to make a lasting impact on their portfolios. So it feels like the money is made on the chart, but doesn't translate well to your pocket.

2. Regular swings, momentum bursts and EPs on the other hand are extremely common. Learning, practicing and playing them is probably 10 times easier compared to the former. With tight risk management and regular sells into strength you can make a real living instead of building castles in the sky. The asymmetric risk/reward in these trades is also really decent.

Here whatever is made on the chart translate well to your pocket too.

Knowing what I know now I'd pick 2 over 1 any day.

[Nithin Kamath @Nithin0dha]

MTF (margin funding) has grown ~5X in 4 years to ₹110k+ crores, especially after F&O margins and STT increases. But there's something nobody's talking about: there is no real risk model in play for brokers. 😬

Regulations allow up to 5X leverage (20% margin) on many stocks. Competition forces every broker to offer maximum permissible leverage. If you don't, you lose business. Classic race to the bottom.

Unlike F&O, MTF has several risk multipliers:
Clients hold positions for months vs days
1,300 stocks (many illiquid) allowed vs only the top 200 in F&O
All buy positions vs two-way flow in F&O, making risk management much harder
Much harder to manage risk, given all the above.

By the way, this leverage from MTF becomes insane when you accept stocks as collateral. So, with Rs 1 lakh of stocks, you get a collateral margin of Rs 80k (20% haircut), and with this Rs 80k, you could buy Rs 5 lakh of MTF.

The structural problem: Indian equities have decent liquidity when markets rise, but it completely dries up during drawdowns. Minimal short-selling (SLB) means almost no natural bid when things reverse. Forced liquidations become self-reinforcing, especially in non-F&O stocks.

SEBI caps MTF at 50% of broker networth + borrowings (or up to 5x networth) to prevent broker defaults. But this potentially protects the system from broker failures, not brokers from client defaults.

With MTF growing 5X across the industry and everyone at maximum leverage, the next major correction could trigger synchronized liquidations.

We haven't seen a 2008, 2015, or COVID-type event since MTF scaled up. When we do, it will cause mayhem—not because any broker fails, but because forced selling into illiquid markets will cascade.

This will be significantly worse beyond the top 200-300 stocks due to lower liquidity.
Someone asked me what the risk model is. I said there is none. I mean, there is—if "praying" that stocks don't fall counts as a model. 😃

My gut says a lot of what's being earned as interest income, and possibly some capital, of brokers, will all be given back when the market does a quick move down.

[Day End Trader @dayendtrader]

Selecting right stocks
ensures some profits.

Booking small profits
ensures your survival.

Surviving long enough
ensures your success.

[Day End Trader @dayendtrader]

A bad market to trade,
is a good market to learn.

[Day End Trader @dayendtrader]

The environment might become easy someday, but trading will never be.

[Shubham @maneshubham07]

@dayendtrader Many congratulations 💐

[Shubham @maneshubham07]

@VforTdp Tirumala...
Avoid weekends

[Shubham @maneshubham07]

Visited this Monday and darshan took only 3 hrs Without 300 rs special darshan ticket
I booked darshan ticket from bhudevi Complex located near alipiri
Reached ATCH circle on given time slot of 10 pm and it took only 3 hr
No rush on Mondays
Also got rooms in only 15 mins

[Vineeth K @DealsDhamaka]

Visiting Tirumala?

A few people I know visited Tirumala recently, my colleague, my swimming instructor, and my brother - all on separate occasions.

Here are some of their experiences:

- Darshan time ranged between 3 to 7 hours. Up to 10 hours for free Darshan
- The overall experience is well-organised.
- Book in advance and online, on-the-spot counter bookings are available but in very limited quantities.
- Prasadam quality is good.
- Annadanam is good, though the queue tends to be long.
- NRIs get access faster darshan - Rs 300 - https://t.co/gGObWfgfK1

VIP Break Darshan is cancelled for many days through the end of December. December 23, 29, December 30 to January 8

[Shubham @maneshubham07]

@VforTdp Anjanadari (ANC)
Just beside tirumala bus stand and also close from cro office

[Day End Trader @dayendtrader]

Losses aren’t that hard.
Shakeouts aren’t that hard.
Squats aren’t that hard.

It’s the waiting that is the hardest.

[Shubham @maneshubham07]

Travis head is राक्षस @travishead34
#Ashes2025

[Day End Trader @dayendtrader]

Make all the money in the world.
Tell no one in the world.

[Day End Trader @dayendtrader]

The day you truly understand this game, you don’t become profitable…
you become a printing machine. 🤓

[Day End Trader @dayendtrader]

@harshmchaudhary It will come with time.
This will the most grueling experience of your life. If you survive it you will be done learning whatever you want to learn.

‘I swam through 500 yards of shit and came out clean on the other side.’ - Shawshank Redemption

[Day End Trader @dayendtrader]

Stages of Enlightenment in Trading: Performance Benchmarking 101

Stage 1: The Beginning

At this stage you have no idea what performance indicators are. And that’s ok. You are new to the arena. 🤷‍♂️

Stage 2: The Ability for Profitability

You start noting down if you are profitable or not. Without that this would be akin to gambling. (This is also usually the stage you start some form of journalling) 📝

Stage 3: The Benchmark

You begin to understand that you should be tracking yourself against the benchmark index like Nifty 50. Simply being profitable means living in denial about your actual performance when pitted against the market. 📈

Stage 4: The Revenge of the Benchmark

It dawns on you that since you are a mid or small cap trader, your benchmark should be against a mid or small cap index. Benchmarking performance with Nifty50 would be unfair as beating the large cap index would be easy with small/mid caps. 📉

Stage 5: The Cost of Doing Business

You decide that a fair way to calculate profit isn’t just Net Profit - CG Tax, it’s when you subtract every govt charge and transaction tax including the cost of subscription/charting/scanning services from it too. This is the cost of doing business. So you do it to know the real cost of running the show. 💸

Stage 6: Why the Index Tortoise 🐢
Beats The Trading Hare 🐇

You realize it is not enough to simply beat your benchmark small/mid index, you need to beat it by a certain multiple to justify being a trader. Or else being an index investor would be much more worth it as it wouldn’t need any time/energy or attract any charges/taxes.

This is a pivotal point in your journey where you realize that ONLY what you make over and above the index minus cost is what YOU have truly earned. Trading doesn’t seem very appealing at this stage. 🙂

You think I’m being too harsh? Think again.

Stage 7: The Cost of Opportunity

It doesn’t take much time for you to notice that your peers who aren’t traders and have ‘real jobs’ actually have something you don’t. A Stable Salary. This is the actual elephant in the trading room. The bloody opportunity cost of not working needs to be incorporated into this mess. Know that the index investor is also free to earn from a job unlike you.

A. My point? ‘Stable’ salary beats your unpredictably volatile profits. This needs to be worked in.

B. The ‘Salary’ part of it makes it easier to earn than profit and also implies that it is only incoming. So the fact remains that no matter how much you hate your job, it never takes money away from you, the market does.

This is where you sit down and decide if you want to take on this challenge as a full time trader knowing what you know, or do you want to go back to work and trade with your spare time.

Stage 8: You are Your Only Competition

As your experience grows along with your capital, you come to the conclusion that you are beating the indices black and blue, so the only way forward is competing with yourself. Things like ‘Last time I beat the index by 20%, this time around it should be more’ start coming to mind.

Stage 9: The World Doesn’t End with Equity

This is usually the point where a lot of uncommon problems start showing up. The market feels illiquid for your capital. So you need to start innovating. 1. Diversify to other asset classes. 2. Dedicate some part of the capital to more slower forms of trading (positional) or investing (REITS / Index) 3. Move up the liquidity curve to futures. 4. Venture into new businesses.

Stage 10: Nirvana

After trying and testing almost everything under the sun you settle with what is best for you. You might’ve completely switched out of trading too. This is where you understand that you’ve left benchmarking far behind. Your capital has reached a point where it gives your Absolute Freedom. Even a few months or even years of underperformance is of no concern. You have gone from ‘growing what you have’ mode to ‘preserving it’ mode.

This is Nirvana. 😇

[Day End Trader @dayendtrader]

It's Not You, It's The Market: Breadth Edition

Indian Equities Breadth Scan: 21 EMA

🟢Nifty50: 84%
🟢CNX200: 70.5%
Clear champ. If you trade large names / Futures or are a Nifty Blue Chip type investor, you've surely felt at ease this Diwali. Almost no skill is needed when such a large majority of your universe is backing you.

🔴CNX400: 55.2%
Weak but catching up now. This is why most swing traders are having a tough time. They focus on these names.

🟠CNX500: 59%
A balance of both the large, mid and small universe. Hence the number is balanced too.

🔴Smallcap 100: 55%
The weakest of the bunch. If you are primarily a smallcap guy, it was not really your time my friend. Don't beat yourself up.

🟢Midcap 100: 67%
🟢Midcap 150: 63%
Midcaps did really well comparatively. If fact if you see Small+Mid as = CNX400, you'll easily notice that midcaps were carrying most of the weight. If you were slightly skilled you'd be able to make some coin in this space.

Now go and check this out yourself. See what people around you are trading/investing in. And instantly you'll be able to make sense of their mixed responses.

This is why we aren't in a secular bull market (When all the market segments do well). We are in a selective bull market.

So you see.... It's not you silly. It's the market.🙂