Tight ranges get boring right before they stop being boring.
Compression can precede expansion. It doesn't tell you the direction.
I'd rather know which regime I'm in before I look for an entry.
Treasuries still hedged tech in the selloff.
The 20-day correlation of 10-year yield changes and NDX returns is +0.60, from +0.54 on Oct 28.
The cushion was thin. NDX fell 3.46% Friday and the 10-year eased only 4bp.
US Treasury and Nasdaq data, as of Nov 2.
Nasdaq futures are up 0.8% into the open after Friday's 3.5% drop.
NQ is near 28,770. NDX cash closed Friday at 28,385, with resistance at Friday's high of 28,713 and support at its low of 28,093.
ISM Manufacturing is out at 10:00 AM ET. The 10-year is at 4.90%.
@AndrewSteinwold Itβs just a play to hit anthropic and OpenAI ipos.
People start getting nervous about sustainability of these subscriptions based on that post
Gold is holding just above its one-year lows.
Gold futures are near 3,906, up 0.2%. The session low was 3,889.
The dollar has eased. DXY is 101.72, below Friday's 101.88 close.
ISM Manufacturing is next at 10:00 AM ET, with prices paid seen at 77.2 from 77.9.
People think they figured it out - that cost of compute is unsustainable as a business model.
But in reality itβs just a play to hit anthropic & openAI IPOs π
The Nasdaq 100 logged a third straight weekly loss.
NDX cash fell 3.46% Friday to 28,385 on the AI spending selloff. SMH lost 7.0%.
NQ futures are bouncing in Asia, near 28,770.
The test comes fast: ISM at 10:00 AM ET today, midterms Tuesday, payrolls Friday.
π¨ WARNING: MONDAY WILL BE THE WORST DAY OF 2026!!
Something catastrophic just happened behind the scenes.
99% of people will lose everything.
When markets open next week, this won't be just another dip.
If you want to be in the TOP 1%, you MUST read this before November 2.
Stocks will dump.
Metals will dump.
Bitcoin and crypto will dump even harder.
The warning signs are becoming impossible to ignore.
β China is dumping $550 BILLION in U.S. Treasuries
β Japan is dumping $5.2 TRILLION in U.S. Treasuries
β China's AI stocks have crashed by over 40%
β The Strait of Hormuz remains CLOSED
β U.S. Treasury yields are SURGING
β Inflation is OUT OF CONTROL
β The Fed is injecting BILLIONS into the economy to prevent another crash
These are NOT separate problems.
They are interconnected issues putting enormous pressure on the entire financial system.
Japan is selling.
China is selling.
And every dollar of debt they sell must find a new buyer.
To attract those buyers, the market must offer higher yields.
That is why Treasury yields are climbing.
People are demanding greater compensation for the risks of holding U.S. government debt.
And this is where the dangerous cycle accelerates:
β Foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries weakens
β The market struggles to absorb the growing supply of government debt
β Treasury yields rise to attract buyers
β Higher yields increase U.S. government borrowing costs
β Rising borrowing costs pressure stocks, real estate, crypto, and virtually every other asset
β Energy disruptions drive oil prices higher and fuel inflation
β Persistent inflation keeps upward pressure on Treasury yields
And China's market crash adds another layer of risk.
When investors lose confidence in AI stocks, the bubble starts to pop EVERYWHERE, not just in China.
Capital retreats.
And the shock spreads into global markets and other risk assets.
This is happening while the broader financial system is already under pressure.
Then there are the Fed's liquidity injections.
The Fed is trying to support the markets and prevent a China-style crash.
But they do NOT eliminate inflation.
The conflict between inflation control and financial stability intensifies.
More liquidity can support asset prices.
Rising inflation puts pressure on interest rates.
Higher yields undermine bonds, stocks, real estate, and other sensitive assets.
This is the contradiction people can't afford to ignore.
Most people will focus on the stock market and wait for the crash to begin.
But the bond market, inflation data, liquidity conditions, and collapsing risk appetite are already flashing warning signs.
You must pay attention NOW.
I've spent more than 12 years studying financial markets and calling market tops and bottoms.
If you want to survive the 2026-2027 cycle, follow and turn on notifications.
You'll want to know what's happening BEFORE the market reacts.
Jobs week. US payrolls land Friday at 8:30 AM ET, forecast 63K from 29K. A hot print lifts yields and weighs on Nasdaq and gold.
Tuesday's US congressional elections can move yields and sentiment.
The BoE decides Thursday at 7:00 AM ET, with a hike to 4.00% expected.