It is almost always the case that the higher the stock price, the greater the risk to shareholders.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (F2) are rare examples of the phenomenon that the more their stock prices rise, the lower the risk of investing in F2, and the greater their intrinsic values.
The last time I experienced this phenomenon was when General Growth Properties (GGP) was on the path to emergence from Chapter 11 in 2009.
Like GGP, one of the risks to F2 is potential dilution to their common shareholders. As their stock prices rise, this risk is diminished, which increases shareholder value by further reducing the risk of dilution and so on. This phenomenon will continue to accelerate as more steps are taken to exit F2 from conservatorship.
You might call this phenomenon positive reflexivity. It is a rare but very powerful and important driver of shareholder value.
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Warren Buffett: "If I had my choice of betting on who is going to have a special place in the minds of kids and their parents [10-20 years from now], I think I would probably bet on Disney."
"They call it share of market, but it starts with share of mind."
Is McDonalds going bankrupt ?
We have all had a Big Mac, right ?
So McDonald’s will be a great example .
McDonald’s has a negative ROE .
What does that mean ?
I answer this question on my newsletter.
Link is in my bio