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- Mega March Market Update -
It's March, the sun is shining, and just like nature awakens in spring, the market stirs with renewed energy, at least this is what it seems right?
But before declaring if it's officially spring time or not, there are a lot of things that must be covered and this is what we will do in this new market update.
As always, I invite you to read everything carefully because there are a lot of information, so make sure to pay attention and don't skip it becoming a "TLDR" guy.
- BTC -
Most of you are not new to the post I made here
https://t.co/hw4kbKxTJ0 about a potential macro distribution inside my favorite "Fib box" and that's what we actually saw with that 109K representing the main target and something we perfectly hit on the Bitcoin index (109.354$), representing the perfect short/TP opportunity despite all the bullishness created by Trump and the "pro-crypto" administration.
From that level we saw a big correction that pushed BTC to catch the liquidity at 88K (small bounce) ending up in an HTF BOS below 89.525$ and also below the 2M range, tapping the CME gap experiencing what, at the moment and until proven otherwise (reclaim of the 99.765$ on HTFs) it's a relief.
"Wyckoffickally" speaking, this represents a potential SOW in structure, also confirmed by the BOS that occurred and confirmed below the range.
When such things happen, they represent a further warning sign, meaning that the HTF MS is weakening as key zones are being violated, opening the doors for lower levels.
You don't know when such lower levels will come, you just had a hint that, at some point, they will, so always keep an open mind preserving a portion of capital in order to exploit them.
Back to the HTF MS, if we reclaim the above mentioned SH, the MS will shift into a bullish one, targeting high 100s and potentially more depending on how the PA unfolds.
This "potentially more" is represented by an HTF closure above the previous ATH, targeting (in my mind) the 115/120K as main target, always trailing your positions monitoring the USDT D because, as you saw, it's the no. 1 chart to look for together with BTC.
A quick look into the MTF: we left behind another CME gap in the high 80s which is another level to monitor and that, at some point in the future, will be filled.
Once again, if it's in confluence with a key level on the USDT D chart, you can bet on it for a long/MTF spot buy.
Naturally, I want to remind you that this is not the time for buying Bitcoin for the long term, but "just" to catch some good swings to the upside and to the downside.
Filter any trap coming from ultra bullish accounts because otherwise, they will lead you to financial seppuku.
- USDT D -
And here we go with my favorite chart.
2 days ago I posted this update: https://t.co/zVPKtUfTVU
highlighting the "decent" HTF closures we had, below the 3M supply suggesting that a reversal was likely, and look what happened.
Together with the "unexpected" rise in BTC a bullish news came out, with Trump announcing a "magical strategic reserve" for crypto assets, classic story to justify a price action that was already written in the charts.
If you also paid attention to the chart I mentioned a TP1 in the 2D demand zone where we saw a perfect reaction providing both the TP and a powerful short opportunity (pump, FOMO, trap late longers).
Now it's important to notice that we closed the daily below the MTF SL at 5.01% creating a BOS and melting the LTF demand area at 4.98% (50.00% Fib) which now provides a potential retest, acting as a BB valid for pushing lower in the future.
This would also give us the 88s (or lower, CME gap), adding extra sauce to the dish.
Now for full bullishness you want to see an HTF closure below the 4.39% in order to push (ideally before a pullback) toward the M demand and the 2/3D ones in the 4.17%/4.03%.
All these areas represent at least partial TP levels to "redeem your sins" as mentioned before, always having an open mind in case this metric decides to close below
3.90% and also below 3.71%.
This would open the doors for seeing lower.
More on this: the good thing (mentioned in the last updates) is that we collected all the liquidity levels left behind in November 2024 (AMT law) and this fuel is necessary in order to push to for lower targets.
Will it happen for sure? Nobody knows.
Just adapt trailing your positions and everything will be ok, it's easier than you think when you're not deceived by the "buy more" guys.
Extra: As you can see above, we have:
- 5.66%
- 5.74%
- 5.78%
That area? Will be taken, it's not a matter of IF, but WHEN.
Pay attention to those levels and you'll likely have a good opportunity for a long/spot buy.
- TOTAL 2 -
There's a lot of work that must be done here and we're still trading in semi "no man's land", because the MS continues to generate LHs and LLs.
As you can clearly see from this chart, after taking and retesting the 1T support, we're still below the SH of the range located at 1.29T which is crucial for determining a MTF trend shift pushing into the 1.4T area.
Pay close attention if we arrive there since we have a M supply (1.38T) + a 3D supply (1.41T) therefore very strong HTF zones.
Until 1.47T is getting reclaimed, treat those levels as TPs (always look for USDT D in the meantime) not getting sucked into the "hope spiral", so manage your risk by extracting profits and also looking for calculated shorts if you're interested.
Instead, if we start losing the 1T support, the next logical areas to watch for a bounce is the 940B and the OB located in the 880B.
Loose 860B SL and altcoins become like a carcass picked clean, nothing left but bones.
Extra: If you pay attention, almost all altcoins have clean broken MSs and still presenting some signs of heaviness with juicy lower levels so again, until they take out their SHs, be careful.
As said, there's a lot of work that needs to be done, we're definitely not out of the wood so please, don't DCA blindly.
- SP500 -
I also want to add the SP500 since some of you asked me about this.
On the 4th of August I was targeting the 6.000 points: https://t.co/yDG8xf6hJI because was aligned with my 1.272 Fib extension and so far we hit this level perfectly during the last part of the 2024.
From that moment we saw a correction with a daily BOS below the mid-range (shy, but still a sign) and the last push to the upside has been completely absorbed presenting, even in this case, a shy closure.
If I watch at this MS from an analytical and rational point of view, I can see a potential distribution in the making (structure looks very similar to the BTC one) and for this reason I would pay a lot of patience with the stock market until definitive resolution.
For seeing new highs the SP500 must close with consistency above 6.150 with next target in the 6.600.
Be careful because if the distribution it's real, the weekly SL at 5.699 is the watershed that confirms it, with the SP500 heading lower.
My main target is the OB in the sub 5.500, always keeping an eye at the 2M demand at 5.000 that, at the moment, seems "fantasy" but in case of a potential "induced catastrophe", it can become reality.
This may happen with a bit of speculation revamping my "conspiracy" https://t.co/nsPTSZRh9s about the U.S debt, but it's something that must be treat with gloves and something that, even if it happens, I won't be here writing "I told you", as is just for informational purpose.
"Brother, is it possible seeing crypto outperforming with this posture on the SP500?"
Unlikely, the best situation we can experience is seeing part of the profits coming from the stock market flowing into crypto for "the last dance" since legacy investors could exploit this space for maximizing their gains, but get it out of your head that while the S&P500 is crashing, crypto can outperform it.
- Last considerations -
As the market evolves, so must your strategy.
The days of easy gains and blind optimism are fading, much like the last remnants of winter melting away under the changing season.
What once worked: holding blindly, chasing hype, relying on sheer momentum is now a relic of a different era.
Adaptability is no longer an edge; it’s the bare minimum for survival.
Liquidity shifts like the tides, narratives are rewritten overnight, and those who hesitate find themselves trapped in the jaws of volatility.
This game has never been fair, but with institutions now at the table, it has become even more ruthless.
Every pump hides a trap, every breakout tempts the impatient, and every correction shakes out those who thought they were immune to fear.
The key is discipline.
The approach of watching key levels, waiting for confirmation before acting isn’t just a method, it’s a mindset.
It keeps you detached from emotion, unshaken by noise, and focused on what actually matters.
Not believing, not hoping, not following a dream, just reacting to what the market is telling you.
The best way to play this game isn’t to stand still and hope for the best; it’s to move with intent.
Like Yoshimitsu sidestepping attacks, you have to be quick, calculated, and always ready to strike.
In and out, securing profits where they appear and cutting losses before they spiral.
Spring may bring new opportunities, but not every seed grows into a strong tree.
Some will flourish, others will wither, and the difference lies in how well you manage the risks.
The market, like nature, rewards those who adapt, those who stay sharp, and those who understand that survival isn’t about brute force, it’s about agility, patience, and knowing when to move.
As always, if you appreciated my work, the like and re-post buttons are just a few centimeters below.
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Also be sure to mint the badges from the protocols that you are using for even more possible rewards.
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@CryptoGravina Boa, fiz o mesmo na rede Eth. Tô ainda pensando em o que fazer com os ezETH da linea, que estava farmando o the surge. Tem alguma ideia?
@TheCryptoLark Yes, do what u can do. I'm swapping crappy coins, laggers, for the ones that showed strength this year, as i didnt have any stabbles to deploy on the dip.