overdrive

[overdrive @ManulArnold]

@ActionFixesFear Great write up and we appreciate the effort that goes into it.

[GainzAlgo @gainzalgo]

$IBRX this is the moment, timestamped straight from the interview. @grok, how significant is this statement for $IBRX?

[ANKTIVA @GetAnktivanow]

Health is wealth. All cancer patients needs @GetAnktivanow thank you for your work @DrPatrick

[ANKTIVA @GetAnktivanow]

Anktiva (nogapendekin alfa inbakicept-pmln) is an IL-15 receptor agonist indicated with BCG for the treatment of adult patients with BCG-unresponsive NMIBC with CIS with or without papillary tumors. Visit https://t.co/GYEHUa5HJo for full Prescribing Information.

[Freedom @ActionFixesFear]

On Wednesday, @DrPatrick posted something that could one day rival the entire business ImmunityBio has built so far. It looks like paperwork: a finished factory run of labeled vials.

Zoom in. The writing on those vials is German. It is a boxed, shippable medicine, which means a German patient whose bladder cancer had run out of options can now actually receive it. This week, approved on paper became a real product on a real shelf.

Here is how Europe got here, and exactly what it is worth. Every patient number is real and sourced. The one number I invent, the price, I label as invented and hand you the formula to run it yourself.

HOW EUROPE GOT HERE

An engine does not arrive whole. It is built part by part, in order, and it stays silent until the last piece drops in. Piece by piece, while the market kept its eyes on the United States, ImmunityBio machined the parts of a European engine. Here they are, in the order they were made:

- February 2026: the European Commission granted ANKTIVA a conditional marketing authorization. Not one country. Thirty. All twenty-seven European Union members, plus Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway, in a single approval.

- The same window: ImmunityBio opened an Irish subsidiary in Dublin, ImmunityBio Ireland Limited, to hold that authorization and run the European business.

- And it signed Accord Healthcare to commercialize the drug across roughly thirty countries, with an eighty-five-person sales force already in place.

- August 2026: the first German label-and-pack run is done. His words: "Global access continues. Unstoppable."

Why Germany first? Two reasons. It is the largest pharmaceutical market in Europe. And under Germany's pricing law, a manufacturer sets its own price freely for roughly the first six months before any negotiation begins. The first European market you launch is the one that turns into revenue the fastest, at a price you choose.

Approval, then a company to hold it, then a sales force to sell it, then a product to ship. Every part is now in place. Germany is where the engine turns over for the first time.

NOW CRUNCH THE NUMBERS. GERMANY FIRST.

The European approval is narrow and specific: BCG-unresponsive non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer with carcinoma in situ, with or without papillary tumors. That is the exact door, and for now ANKTIVA is the only drug Europe has approved to walk through it.

The alternative offered to these patients is surgery, removing the bladder. Let us size it the same way we sized the world in earlier posts. Real epidemiology, one honest funnel, no hand-waving.

Start with every bladder cancer in Germany: about 30,000 a year. That is grounded. The German cancer registry and the global GLOBOCAN database bracket it.

Now walk the funnel:

- About 75 percent are non-muscle-invasive. 30,000 becomes about 22,500

- About 20 percent of those are high risk. 22,500 becomes about 4,500

- About 35 percent of high-risk patients treated with BCG stop responding to it. 4,500 becomes about 1,575

- About 45 percent of those carry the carcinoma-in-situ pattern the European label covers. 1,575 becomes about 700

So the German pool ANKTIVA is approved to treat is roughly 700 patients a year. Call the honest range 400 to 1,500, because every step after the first compounds a soft fraction.

Sanity check, because a number you cannot check is worth nothing. The same funnel gives the United States about 2,000 of these patients a year. Germany at 700 against the US at 2,000 is more than population alone would predict, and that is correct: Germans get bladder cancer noticeably more often than Americans, an older population with more smoking history. The two numbers reconcile. The German figure is not an artifact.

THE ONE NUMBER I INVENT

I do not know what ImmunityBio will charge in Germany. Nobody outside the company does. So I will invent a price, tell you it is invented, and show my reasoning.

In the United States, a year of ANKTIVA runs around 300,000 dollars. European cancer drugs typically sell for well under half of American prices. So I will use 130,000 dollars a year for Germany. It is a placeholder. If you think it is wrong, change it. The formula does not care.

WHAT THAT IS WORTH

Now, no new drug reaches every eligible patient. Doctors adopt a new therapy gradually, and for some of these patients the standard alternative, removing the bladder, is chosen instead. So the honest move is not to guess one share, it is to show the revenue at several and let you pick.

700 patients, 130,000 dollars each, times the share who actually get it:

- At 10 percent of them reached, about 9 million dollars a year

- At 25 percent, about 23 million

- At 50 percent, about 46 million

And one thing about a first launch. BCG-unresponsive patients do not disappear. They live for years under surveillance, putting off having their bladder removed. So when a drug finally arrives, it does not only catch this year's new patients. It catches the pile that has been waiting. That backlog can make the first year or two considerably larger, a one-time bulge, before it settles to the steady number.

Put 46 million against ImmunityBio's entire product revenue last year, about 113 million dollars. Germany alone, at a healthy share of patients, is worth roughly 40 percent of everything the company sold worldwide in 2025. From one country. For one narrow slice of one cancer.

NOW THE WHOLE CONTINENT

Germany is not the market. Germany is the doorway. It is about a fifth of Europe's population, and one of roughly thirty countries Accord is now built to sell into.

Run the same funnel across the whole European Union and the eligible pool is not 700. It is somewhere around 3,500 to 4,000 patients a year. Take the middle, about 3,700. Reach a quarter of them, and that is roughly 900 patients actually on the drug. At the same invented 130,000 dollars each:

900 times 130,000 is roughly 120 million dollars a year.

Sit with that. Roughly 120 million dollars a year, from a single narrow bladder-cancer indication across Europe. That is on the order of what ImmunityBio sold worldwide in all of 2025. A second engine, close to the size of the whole company as it stood a year ago.

AND WE HAVE SEEN THIS NUMBER BEFORE

Here is the part that should stop you. This is not the first time we have run this exercise and landed near the size of the whole company.

In July, when the UAE approved ANKTIVA, we sized the other new market the same way. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, where the drug is cleared not only for bladder cancer but for late-line lung cancer that nothing else has touched. Different patients. Different door. A different price, because the Gulf is not Europe. And it came out in the same range: roughly 140 million dollars a year at a cautious count, and toward 300 million at the top of its range.

One honest note, so you weigh it correctly. The European number rests on a large, insured, domestic patient pool. The Gulf number is softer: a smaller local population, topped up by patients who fly in from neighboring countries for a drug they cannot get at home. It is the more speculative of the two. But even its firm, government-paid floor is a nine-figure opportunity on its own.

TWO NEW ENGINES, AT ONCE

So count them. In all of 2025, ImmunityBio sold about 113 million dollars of ANKTIVA, almost entirely in America. Now add Europe, a second engine near that size. Then the Middle East, which we sized in July at roughly 140 million dollars a year, a third. Two whole new regions, each a nine-figure opportunity, both opening at the same time.

Set them against that 2025 number and they come to roughly two of it at a cautious count, closer to three if the Gulf climbs its ladder. And the base is not standing still while the new engines start. America sold more than 50 million dollars last quarter alone, close to double a year earlier. These two regions stack on top of a first engine that is itself still accelerating. Same drug. More doors.

And it is still not the whole map. It is not first-line bladder, the larger pool the company is testing now. It is not the United States papillary decision due January 6. It is not the developing world a global fund could pay to reach, the reason ImmunityBio just hired the former head of the World Bank. It is not sepsis, or the rest of the pipeline. It is two regions, sized honestly, against one.

RUN YOUR OWN

I am forecasting nothing. None of this is signed, none of it is guaranteed, and none of it is advice. The patient math is real and sourced. The price is a number I chose and labeled. The share of patients reached is a dial, and I handed you the dial.

If you think 130,000 dollars is too high, cut it. If you think a European launch reaches more or fewer than a quarter of patients over time, move it. A first launch often starts nearer one in ten, which would halve these numbers and stretch them over more years. The engines are the same size; they just take time to reach full speed. The funnel is printed above, step by step. The receipts are in the reply below. Check any of them.

THE CATCH

The European approval is conditional. It rests on evidence the company still owes regulators, and a conditional approval can be narrowed. The price is unknown, and Europe pushes prices down, not up. Penetration in a brand-new market is never fast and never certain.

And ImmunityBio has told its own investors it needs to raise money to keep going, which means the shareholders who own this today may own a smaller share of it by the time these engines are collected. None of the numbers above are promises. They are the size of the opportunity, not a schedule for collecting it.

But the opportunity is real, and it is finally physical. For two years this was a map. Approvals, subsidiaries, partnerships, plans. On Wednesday it became a boxed vial with a German label, sitting on a line, ready to ship.

The map just became a truck. And the truck is only leaving the first city.

[Dr. Pat Soon-Shiong @DrPatrick]

Proud moment for our team and for patients across Europe.

Our first EU (German) labeling and packaging run for ANKTIVA is complete. These vials represent more than manufacturing. They mark the next step in bringing this IL-15 immunotherapy to patients with BCG-unresponsive NMIBC who previously faced limited options.

Global access continues. Unstoppable

[HiltonHead🦎 @SniggleFrittzz]

$IBRX looking hot

[Dating Dynamics @Dating_Dynamics]

1. Your stress levels drop before the day even starts.

Sex releases dopamine and oxytocin, the feel-good hormones that reduce stress and create feelings of relaxation. Engaging in pleasure early in the morning taps into brain pathways that reduce cortisol, the stress hormone. You start your day with shots of positive hormones in your body, making small annoyances feel easier to handle. You may still face challenges, but they feel less draining.

[C.L.A.U.D.I.A @DaAcervo]

☢️ Verdade chocante revelada pelo oncologista

As únicas células imunológicas que matam o câncer são as células T assassinas, e essa célula é destruída pela quimioterapia.

[Bullish @bullishbruk]

$IBRX (Smart money) Institutional Ownership skyrocketed!
• 588 institutional owners/shareholders
• 242,234,780 shares held
Largest:
BlackRock, Inc, State Street Corp
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc.
VTSMX – Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund, XBI – SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
NAESX – Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund
Geode Capital Management, LLC
IWM – iShares Russell 2000 ETF.
@LoriMills4CA42 @alc2022

[The Eagle flies free @Fa21519230]

🚨🚨 "Vamos a tener que abordar el aumento de casos de cáncer en relación con las vacunas contra la COVID — Por primera vez en mi carrera, he visto a niños de 8, 9 y 10 años con cáncer de colon. Por primera vez en mi carrera, he tenido a un niño de 13 años en mi clínica debido a un cáncer pancreático metastásico"...
Propietario del LA Times, Dr. Soon-Shiong

[MJTruthUltra @MJTruthUltra]

LA Times Owner;

“We’re Going to have to Address the Rising Instance of Cancer in Relation to Covid Vaccines — For the first time in my career, I’ve seen an 8, 9, and 10 year-old with colon cancer. For the first time in my career, I’ve had a 13-year-old child in my clinic due metastatic pancreatic cancer.”

People need to be held accountable… we simply cannot move on without it. Too many atrocious crimes were committed. Too many lives were ruined and lost.

https://t.co/RKLlWuFDqF

[PK_Fund @PK_Fund]

$IBRX I would not count out a possibility of a Lymphopenia approval. It is of critical importance. And Anktiva is the only demonstrated cure. How long can this be denied? So something comes along that is better - so what? But Anktiva has very little side effects. So what in the hell is the problem? I think this should be first on the list. Trump has a lot going on but this is very important.

[overdrive @ManulArnold]

@spaventa7 @Asirais It's up over 200% this year alone? 😂

[Dexter @Asirais]

🚨🚨 Big Pharma is aggressively snapping up cancer assets!

The market is zeroing in on two names:

$SLS 🧬
$IBRX 🧬

Pfizer, Merck, and Amgen are all continuing to double down on oncology.

What does this mean?

👉 Big Pharma needs innovative cancer pipelines
👉 High-quality assets from small biotechs are rising in value
👉 Speculation regarding partnerships, licensing deals, and M&A is heating up

$SLS’s trump card is GPS; it is currently undergoing the pivotal Phase 3 REGAL trial, targeting AML.

$IBRX is a different story—
ANKTIVA is already commercialized with growing revenue, and there are expectations for label expansion.

🔥 One represents "potential revaluation based on late-stage clinical trials"
🔥 The other represents "an already commercialized oncology asset"

This is why the market is buzzing with speculation:

Which cancer biotech will Big Pharma target next? 👀

⚠️ Important: There is currently no evidence that Pfizer, Merck, or Amgen are acquiring $SLS or $IBRX.

However, capital markets often trade on "what might happen."

And right now, cancer assets are once again becoming a battleground for Big Pharma.

$SLS $IBRX
The oncology M&A game may be heating up. 🔥

[bluefinsashimi @bluefinsashimi]

$IBRX
Today’s @US_FDA / Reagan-Udall meeting on drug repurposing hits on something huge: we already have powerful medicines that could help far more patients if we get smarter about expanding their uses.

#Anktiva is one of those medicines. It’s an IL-15 superagonist that wakes up the body’s own natural killer cells and killer T cells [the immune system’s frontline soldiers] without hitting the brakes [Tregs].

That’s why it already helps bladder cancer patients, and why the same mechanism shows promise across many other cancers and even conditions where the immune system has been beaten down (like lymphopenia after chemo).

Now imagine pairing it with a reliable, high-quality BCG supply [Tokyo strain]. BCG has been a backbone of bladder cancer care for decades, but shortages have limited how many people can get the full benefit. If Tokyo BCG gets the green light, more patients could access the combination that activates the immune system the right way.

I hope today’s meeting was about identifying strong science, removing barriers, and getting proven tools to more people faster. Patients don’t have years to wait for brand-new drugs when we already have ones that work!!!!!!

@SusanWinckler @DavidFajgenbaum @DrPatrick

link: https://t.co/qNCDKVVyDq

[Bill Maher @billmaher]

I'm not voting for anyone who thinks the wrong side won the Cold War or cheers for the Intifada like it's the World Cup.

[Scott @Scottobix]

If you know a path to Anktiva BioShield N-803 please let me know.

I'm desperately trying to stay alive and don't have a lot of time.

Please, any help is greatly appreciated!

[Bullish @bullishbruk]

Insider sales in late June/early July were executed under pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 plans adopted months earlier (Cohen’s on Feb 27, 2026). These are automatic, pre-scheduled transactions — not discretionary dumps signaling trouble.
Treating routine 10b5-1 sales as a red flag invents concern the filings don’t support. Directors still hold substantial positions.
Cash burn and runway will matter on the Aug 4 report — that’s fair. Q1 already delivered record $44M ANKTIVA revenue and $381M cash. The real story remains commercial execution and label expansion, not pre-planned insider liquidity. $IBRX

[overdrive @ManulArnold]

@PeteHegseth @WhiteHouse Fort Myers beach, bring it! Keep up the good work.