Daniel Marcinek

Actuary. Investing enthusiast.

[Gaurav Chande @gmchande]

😂 From the recent @LibertyRPF article https://t.co/Uw5EVcG0cg

[Ayuso @AyusoValue]

Edenred shares surge 16% after reports emerged that a private equity firm had explored a potential take-private transaction for the company.
A reminder that corporate actions can quickly unlock value in businesses the market has been overlooking. $EDEN.PA

[Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump]

What a rotten deal we made with Iran. We get nothing (except laughter at our stupidity). They get everything, including delay and big cash!

[Daniel Marcinek @marcajs]

@ales_vavra @Barchart Neplytvejte svym drahocenym casem.

[Daniel Marcinek @marcajs]

@ales_vavra Marketing 101… vyvolat podruhe scarcity dojem…

[Alexander Stahel 🌻 @BurggrabenH]

Sept 1999ish

[Daniel Marcinek @marcajs]

@BurggrabenH

[Kakashii @kakashiii111]

We have three dominant AI labs consuming the majority of compute demand nowadays:

1. OpenAI
2. Google (Gemini)
3. Anthropic

Google runs Gemini almost entirely on TPUs, while using Nvidia GPUs in the cloud mainly for enterprise clients and inference when needed.

Anthropic runs almost entirely on Google TPUs and Amazon Trainium, though in recent months they’ve also been tweaking their stack to work on Nvidia GPUs. Google and Anthropic inference workloads mostly run on TPUs, not Nvidia. Anthropic is currently leading compute demand.

OpenAI is, in fact, the biggest customer of Nvidia GPUs, which is why Microsoft, Oracle, CoreWeave, and others are all providing Nvidia GPU compute to OpenAI.

But there is a problem: OpenAI is losing market share, in enterprise, in coding, and among normal users. Google is aggressively pushing Gemini across all of its services and has been very successful at making Gemini feel native to almost every Google product. The same is happening across Android, and soon likely with a new OS replacing ChromeOS.

OpenAI has no real moat in any of the above. OpenAI is losing market share. Which means Nvidia’s biggest customer may not end up consuming all the demand it already committed to hyperscalers and neoclouds.

[Kakashii @kakashiii111]

@negligible_cap it's my work. stolen.

[Kakashii @kakashiii111]

Credit for my work would be appreciated.
Thank you.

[Kakashii @kakashiii111]

Any company that thinks we are short on GPUs, SMCI would be happy to sell you some. They have billions worth of racks sitting around waiting for clients.

[Daniel Marcinek @marcajs]

@FjordPhil Professional level trolling if you ask me :)

[Kakashii @kakashiii111]

I couldn’t have timed my article better. The WSJ piece on OpenAI missing key revenue reads differently after you will read my last piece, and it should make much more sense now.

[Ayuso @AyusoValue]

Edenred reports strong Q1 revenue and confirms its guidance. $EDEN.PA

[Ayuso @AyusoValue]

$EDEN.PA > 20€. 🫡

[Daniel Marcinek @marcajs]

@ales_vavra @michaeljburry Ve vsech tech threadech? Zorientovat se v tom je full time job, takze se to prehledne velice snadno :) Nic si z toho nedelejte :)

[Daniel Marcinek @marcajs]

@ales_vavra @michaeljburry Myslim ten thread, kde jsou zakazane replies a postuje tam jen MJB… ten puvodni pokus je zaplaveny “bordelem”

[Daniel Marcinek @marcajs]

@ales_vavra @michaeljburry Zkuste se podivat do chatu “Trades” je tam jen 11 postu od MJB a 5.3. Psal ze koupil ADBE… Sledovat ty chaty je tezke, ale v tomto se pletete…

[Daniel Marcinek @marcajs]

@klubinvestoru @absurdtrader @PaleFireCapital Bylo by mozne upresnit, kterym spojem pojede PFC +KI? Predem diky!

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

Well, I have called just about everything significant that has happened the last 26 years.
It's hard to say I've never had the timing right.
I was short Amazon at the top in 2000.
I went way long small cap value in late 2000.
I bought AAPL in 1998 and then again in 2002.
In 2003, I got into Korea stocks before a big run.
In 2004, I got into China stocks before a big run.
In 2004, I got into oil before a big run.
I bought gold in 2005 and still 20 years later...
In summer 2005, I figured I was buying 5 years swaps on something would print within 2, and it did.
In 2008, October, I told my investors it was time to buy. More stocks bottomed then than in March 2009.
In 2009, I invested in Almonds/Water, it worked ok.
In 2013, I moved to buy Bitcoin after meeting with a friend at Lightspeed. I should have. Slept on it and did not.
In 2015, I bought NVDA. The CFO knows.
In 2018, I started pounding the table on Japan and opened a Japan fund, which I had to close for COVID.
In late 2019, I warned indexing and passive investing would make for very corrlated severe drawdowns in the market, and COVID hit 6 months later, we got the most correlatedl, sharp decline in modern history.
Early 2020, I entered 2020 very short. Which worked.
During early COVID I loaded up on stocks and had nearly a 100% year for the fund.
In 2020, I called lockdowns would be disastrous for women and children, and went on Twitter to say it.
IN 2020, I got GME to buy back 1/3 of its stock and change its board. Did ok.
July 2021, I gave Barron's an interview to warn on specific meme stocks at the top, and they crashed through Dec 2023.
2021, I warned about very high inflation from the policies that were being undertaken.
2023, I warned people to sell because I saw the banking crisis coming. I told them all was clear at the bottom in March as I could see it wouldn't be contagious.
2020s, I shorted Tesla, but these were trades, and it was volatile. I did not lose money overall shorting Tesla. Had some really big quick wins. Plus Tesla is only worth about $120.
I am not perfect, I did not hold AAPL or NVDA long enough, in 2025 we were up almost 100% again by Liberation Day, and I lost most of the gain (still up about double digits for the year at closing) but I would put the calls I've made over these decades up against anyone.
I would add visual proof for all this, but it is too much for this medium.