Marc Attenberg

[reredevaux @reredevaux]

We made the decision based off of what was best for our horse irregardless of what stallion deals were in place. If we want to talk about the new era of racing we might want to address the elephant in the room-how the medication rules have changed in favor of safety for horses

[David Aragona @HorseToWatch]

Hopefully there’s a process in place for cross-checking all charts against GPS data. It’s not as if this Kentucky Derby was some outlier. Last year’s Derby had the exact same issue and was never corrected. Not to mention countless other races that don’t get this scrutiny.

[David Aragona @HorseToWatch]

The official @Equibase Kentucky Derby chart has Golden Tempo losing ground on the leaders from the 1/4 to the 1/8 pole. That obviously didn’t happen (he made up about 3 lengths in that furlong). Why collect GPS data if you’re not going to use it to make the charts more accurate?

[Craig Milkowski @CraigMilkowski]

Not the easiest figure making day, but tentative 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure for Golden Tempo in the Kentucky Derby today. The pace was hot, as expected.

It would be a stretch to make the number any higher in my opinion.

More to come!

@HorseToWatch @DailyRacingForm

[Marc Attenberg @marcattenberg]

@derby1592 What price is too low? A lot of current framing on this horse is around the idea he goes off at 7-1. What about 5-1?

[David Aragona @HorseToWatch]

The opening section of this conference recap is totally unsurprising and yet still an incredibly demoralizing read. https://t.co/bWVTJssI8R

[Avi Wolfman-Arent @Avi_WA]

This photo from Philly photographer Ron Tarver is just stunning.

It's from his new book spotlighting Black cowboys and equestrians:

https://t.co/t4DtguD43P

[Jessica Paquette @jmpaquette]

This is glorious.

[Derby1592 @derby1592]

Very predictable from Sierra Leone

[Marc Attenberg @marcattenberg]

@marshallgramm I generally love using a daily double pool this way, but it seems unusual because there’s a ton of dough in the win pool, and i feel like it doesn’t move so much on Derby Day, and that Oaks/Derby pool feels like a different beast altogether.

[Marc Attenberg @marcattenberg]

@marshallgramm Hi Marshall. Maybe a dumb question: Given that there’s $4.2M in the win pool already, is the Oaks/Derby double pool (is it around $3M?) actually more predictive than the incomplete but huge win pool? Have you ever run a study?
1/2

[Marc Attenberg @marcattenberg]

Something like this would be very easy to backtest, too. Not sure that the criticism of grading of stakes would matter much, but easy to find out.

[Michael Mulvihill @mulvihill79]

Hot take: Other than Horse of the Year, Eclipse Award voting should be done away with entirely. Create a points system for each division based on the graded stakes calendar from 1/1 to Breeders Cup Saturday.

[Marc Attenberg @marcattenberg]

@CarsoniSoK @TimeformUSfigs 💥

[Marc Attenberg @marcattenberg]

@truxtonstables https://t.co/xTLVwgfZuk

[Derby1592 @derby1592]

Keep in mind that these imputed odds will likely be sharper than the final win pool odds. The longshots will all be shorter than 50/1 in the win pool. Two Phil’s will get bet down because of his name, and Mattress Mac will put several million down on Forte.

Good luck tomorrow.

[Marc Attenberg @marcattenberg]

@neveroverlaid @derby1592 @DRFHegarty More clarity here on his intent to run multiple horses Saturday:

https://t.co/39HbwX5X9o

[Marc Attenberg @marcattenberg]

@neveroverlaid @derby1592 @DRFHegarty Give it another read. Article says he plans to scratch three horses, names those three, also names another on AE list, but makes no mention of White Abarrio. Makes no mention of his plans with this horse.

[Marc Attenberg @marcattenberg]

@derby1592 It’s still fairly confusing. Is White Abarrio running on Derby Day? Cc: @DRFHegarty

[Marc Attenberg @marcattenberg]

@andyserling As others note, the Johannes 15-1 line might be as bad too.

[Marc Attenberg @marcattenberg]

@andyserling @billt209 Also quite a bit of success with a sibling on dirt