Chris Paul is gone.
D-Wade is gone.
Duncan is gone.
Shaq is gone.
Dirk is gone.
KG is gone.
AI is gone.
Melo is gone.
Pierce is gone.
Rondo is gone.
Nash is gone.
Bosh is gone.
Ray is gone.
Yao is gone.
T-Mac is gone.
Linsanity is gone.
Scalabrine is gone.
Your childhood is over.
$ONDS
HC Wainwright naming Ondas Holdings a 2026 Top Pick with their $25 price target.
HCW didn’t just “update a note.” They essentially put a flag in the ground and basically said they’re done debating whether Ondas is real. Now we’re debating how fast it scales.
Here’s the part people are missing.
They are not valuing Ondas like a hobby drone company, that ship has sailed. They are valuing it like a platform that sits in the middle of two inevitabilities,
defense autonomy and critical infrastructure modernization.
That is the bet.
Their model is blunt wit about $180M revenue in 2026, about $1.5B by 2030.
Read that again. That’s not a cute bump. That’s the kind of trajectory Wall Street only underwrites when they believe demand is structural, not cyclical.
And the margins they’re underwriting tell you what they think Ondas becomes. 50% plus gross margins and around 30% EBITDA at scale. So we’re talking about a top line CAGR north of 70%. And one thing to keep in mind is
once fixed costs are covered, incremental revenue carries very high flow through. During the scale up phase, EBITDA (and FCF) can grow multiple times faster than revenue before margins normalize.
But again, this is not pure hardware. That is systems, software, services, autonomy, training, sustainment, integration. The bear case that lives in “low margin drone seller” dies right there.
Now the most important detail, the one that makes the whole thing feel different is they used a 20% WACC.
That is them explicitly saying execution risk is real, we’re going to punish the cash flows, and we still get to $25.
That’s not analyst cheerleading, that’s some serious conservative math with teeth.
So what changed? Well, not the market narrative. The market is still stuck on old mental models. What changed is that a serious shop is now publishing the future state in numbers with revenue scaling, margin profile, and what this should be worth if management executes.
This is why volatility is still here. Price can move faster than understanding, especially in small caps. And I get it, people are staring at the tape, and all the day to day noise, but institutions are staring at the model. Those are not the same game, and why long term shareholder with patience will be rewarded.
Execution is the only variable left.
And let’s not forget we have a special situation in the structure. Shorts are trapped. There is no exit liquidity up to the warrants levels at $20 and again at $28.
Nothing has changed, just the validation in the thesis that is being confirmed.
LongAF $ONDS
$ONDS | WAVE UPDATE
We projected the bottom - and the gains since then has been MASSIVE.
Then we precisely projected the internal Wave 3 top at $15.22, and price hit it like CLOCKWORK.
NOW price has pulled back into the reversal zone at $11.20.
Holding $11.20 → price can continue higher.
ONLY IF $11.20 fails, next support is $9.86, aligning perfectly with the daily MA50 (blue).
Personally - I have ZERO concern here.
Our major wave 3 projection remains UNCHANGED: $24.27.
“At the end of the day it’s just a number. We play the same game, but the GRIT is what separates us”
Huge shoutout to @MoArnold4 for bringing this concept to life 🎥
See y’all tomorrow 🦅 #LaFamilia