@StarobinskiA@arielsbdar No hace falta tanto. Largo plazo es entender que un etf del SPX rinde en el tiempo mucho más que una inflación en dólares. Ser constante en los ingresos de fondos en la cuenta. Claramente lo de las carteras capaz que lo tenes que aprender vos y dejar de bardear
Contrary to popular belief, the $SPX 0DTE market is extremely efficient. JPMorgan found that 0DTE Implied Vol has a 90% correlation to Realized Vol. For comparison, the correlation is 69% for 30DTE options. They also found that the average Var Risk Premium (IV-RV) was about 1.5%.
When 0DTE was introduced, the VRP was 3%, meaning that today’s market has become nearly 2x more efficient at pricing this product with a lower risk aversion. Likewise, when looking at 1DTE options they found an 89% correlation between Implied and Realizied Vol. A similar drop was found in the VRP for 1DTE options as that market has also become nearly 2x more efficient.
How about when looking at event days like CPI, FOMC, and NFP? The average 1DTE event vol (VRP) is greater on CPI days but its standard deviation is also higher as well. On FOMC days the average is slightly higher, and on NFP days, the average risk premium is actually lower.
While the data only goes back a year and a half to January 2023, I believe it goes to show why the systematic overwriting funds are seeing record AUMs. Even though a 90% correlation isn't statistically significant, it’s still enough for these vol shops to green-light the trades. As long as they are hedging out tails (which obviously everyone does), when the uncorrelated 10% does come, they won't blow out. For now, the short 0DTE trade will live on.
#Aftermarket en el puesto 39 de los podcast más escuchados del finde en Spotify en ARG!! 😀😀
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#Aftermarket: el desastre inflacionario que se repetirá en 2023
Y hablamos de la tecnología detrás del mercado con @marco_dibo
https://t.co/by6mVgpWrq
#Aftermarket: el desastre inflacionario argentino que se repetirá en 2023.
También hablamos sobre la tecnología qué hay detrás de cada orden y las operaciones en renta fija en el mercado local con @marco_dibo CEO de Quantex
https://t.co/8gjyCQ7oNA
#Aftermarket: el desastre inflacionario argentino que se repetirá en 2023.
También hablamos sobre la tecnología qué hay detrás de cada orden y las operaciones en renta fija en el mercado local con @marco_dibo CEO de Quantex
https://t.co/8gjyCQ7oNA
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