Marco

[Marco @marcotomasrodr]

人弃我取，人取我与

[Marco @marcotomasrodr]

@ReneSellmann It's a contingent resource play!
EV/3C = 2.6 × 10⁻¹⁰

[Marco @marcotomasrodr]

@NStepmum

[Marco @marcotomasrodr]

Fable/Mythos is AGI, don't think humans can add value to the chain anymore tbh

[Marco @marcotomasrodr]

@ReneSellmann How would a 10% grower (ROIC/ROE 30%) + 10% dividend at P/E 7 fit here?

[Marco @marcotomasrodr]

According to my estimates, $FUTU and $TIGR should be trading at 12-15x pro-forma earnings.

Having a lower operating leverage and higher mainland exposure, $TIGR is more heavily affected, while having a bigger leeway to further increase their revenue yield and to regain the leverage lost (their bottom line may be much more volatile than FUTU in the next 1-3Y). Any decrease in trading activity should hit TIGR the hardest. Using EV/EBI it’s crazy cheap, but that assumes management will activate their balance sheet meaningfully which I believe it’s highly unlikely since there are reserve requirements and leveraging doesn’t seem an option.

$FUTU is the better business with stronger growth prospects.

I’m not confident on the brokerage business as a whole in the next 1-2Y but believe in the long term growth runway.

[Marco @marcotomasrodr]

ME Group
April was the warmest, least rainy month in a decade, reducing the demand for clothes drying, core for the laundry business.

[Marco @marcotomasrodr]

@FriendlyCapMgmt @nicolas_a4 Indeed, potentially a much larger % earnings, no marketing needed, fixed OpEx, not sure if they had also different pricing since switching for them is harder than a regular customer.

All brokers are trending to zero commission, it's mainly interest, IPOs, management fees, etc.

[Marco @marcotomasrodr]

@FriendlyCapMgmt CAC also trending higher, for both TIGR and FUTU. Take rates coming down. Market seems to be reaching saturation.

[Marco @marcotomasrodr]

@FriendlyCapMgmt Likewise, my estimates were at 15-20% max. MoS shrank significantly in this release. Customer acquisition is also slowing down quarter after quarter.

[Marco @marcotomasrodr]

So far no new market was announced, nonetheless $TIGR can take customers from ~99 countries even though they don't actively market themselves there and don't have a local entity.

There used to be a tiny amount of users from Malaysia + SEA, which should be currently booked through NZ, although this depends from each customer's agreement. Marketing in these countries doesn't seem to break-even as of today, according to FUTU. TIGRs lower operating leverage should make this expansion even less profitable.

An extract from their FY2025 report:
"For consolidated accounts, we carry out customer due diligence... pursuant to the anti-money laundering rules and regulations in New Zealand (...) under consolidated accounts, the Group... recognizes revenue... on a gross basis as the Group is determined to be the primary obligor" (Tiger NZ is the broker of record for most RoW, although this isn't explicitly/clearly disclosed. NZ local customers are a small portion of the NZ booked revenue)

Worth noting is, they have registered trademarks (not licenses) in Malaysia, Indonesia, India, Philippines, Thailand and in the EU.

[Marco @marcotomasrodr]

@BillieBillion1 Absolutely insane, funny how they basically re-announced a partnership that was years old already. Not sure at what point of the EV/Pipeline we are haha.

[Marco @marcotomasrodr]

So far no new market was announced, nonetheless $TIGR can take customers from ~99 countries even though they don't actively market themselves there and don't have a local entity.

There used to be a tiny amount of users from Malaysia + SEA, which should be currently booked through NZ, although this depends from each customer's agreement. Marketing in these countries doesn't seem to break-even as of today, according to FUTU. TIGRs lower operating leverage should make this expansion even less profitable.

An extract from their FY2025 report:
"For consolidated accounts, we carry out customer due diligence... pursuant to the anti-money laundering rules and regulations in New Zealand (...) under consolidated accounts, the Group... recognizes revenue... on a gross basis as the Group is determined to be the primary obligor" (Tiger NZ is the broker of record for most RoW, although this isn't explicitly/clearly disclosed. NZ local customers are a small portion of the NZ booked revenue)

Worth noting is, they have registered trademarks (not licenses) in Malaysia, Indonesia, India, Philippines, Thailand and in the EU.

[Marco @marcotomasrodr]

@BillieBillion1 Any thoughts on the EBM investigation for insider trading?
Didn't do too much research but looks like this one has high chances for getting suspended.

[Marco @marcotomasrodr]

@JonasEmre7

[Marco @marcotomasrodr]

Never expected this crap to fall out so quickly!
Jail speedrun achieved in only 75 days ✅
$SIVE

[亚洲金融 Asia Finance @AsiaFinance]

$SIVE 财务造假、内幕交易，涉嫌刑事犯罪。内部核心成员，董事会成员Tomas Duffy、Todd Thomson以及高管Harish Krishnaswamy，在股票拉高期间，密集减持套现。亚洲金融@AsiaFinance核查：瑞典经济犯罪局(EBM)和检察官Jonas Myrdal，已对Sivers展开调查。关于SIVE财报暴雷和涉嫌犯罪，我们会跟踪披露。

[Marco @marcotomasrodr]

@MikeFritzell @DaBao_ Great interview, two legends!

[Marco @marcotomasrodr]

@BillieBillion1 But it's trading at only 10x FY2074 earnings!

[牧666🦜 @TxmwP4MYZnZ1kPO]

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[外汇交易员 @fxtrader]

据中信证券测算，跨境展业整治落地后，富途旗下受影响存量资产规模约1500-1800亿港元，老虎证券约450-500亿港元。考虑其他受影响券商，全市场受影响规模预计2000-2500亿港元，但这一口径并非港股持仓规模，更不能简单等同于港股卖盘。

富途控股和老虎证券的罚款规模分别为18.5亿元人民币以及4.112亿元人民币，约占两公司2025年收入的10.65%和11.23%，占两公司2025年利润的18.75%和35.38%。

中信证券认为客户资产基础较强、跨境产品储备充分、投顾与数字化能力领先的头部券商及财富管理平台有望受益。