in 2024, we presented the universal theory of pitching— that arsenal mix/match is the antidote to decay, which neutralizes pure stuff over a large sample.
in 2025, we extended it to determine a grand strategy for baseball.
behold the blob of blobs and the grid of grids.
a moonshot factory— the inimitable original pitching lab. so proud and grateful to have been a part of the @DrivelineBB mission.
on opening day, 30 teams begin the WS chase. signing off from here to go solve baseball for one of them.
Fun conversation on pitching development w/ @enosarris, @DerekVanRiper, and @IamTrevorMay today via @ratesandbarrels.
Talked through the best, worst, and risers.
Selfishly think it’s some of the best 40+ minutes out there on the topic. Enjoy!🔥 https://t.co/wfLHWNmV79
Here are the outcome probabilities with resulting win probability. With these calcs:
A take has an expected WP of 19.5%
A swing has an expected WP of 6.5%
There would need to be a 67% chance of called strike for the EV of a swing to meet or exceed the EV of a take.
Ronald Acuña Jr. and Shohei Ohtani, dueling leadoff home runs in the Japan-Venezuela WBC quarterfinal
Acuña: 106.2 mph / 401 feet
Ohtani: 113.6 mph / 427 feet
I sent a survey on pitching development and acquisition to 68 #MLB coaches and executives.
Who is the best? Who is the worst? Who will rise?
Results are below. What stands out?
More in thread... 👀
A few weeks before Joseph Contreras got Aaron Judge out, he met with his high-school catcher -- the son of former MLB catcher Todd Greene -- to watch film and come up with a scouting report.
It worked to perfection. High-school baseball rules.
https://t.co/ZciXnITLWA
Out at the Sabermetrics Analytics Conference @sabr, I got to see @hedgertronic, @SamEhrlich, and @connerpelletier present on the Magnus and non-Magnus forces affecting ball flight.
Check out the @DrivelineBB Research & Development Podcast!
on strider bump day, consider this dynamics plot, which we covered in the QTd episode: 95 mph is a critical breakeven point for fastballs.
<95: intrinsic stuff value is positive and 1 marginal MPH doesn’t help much
>95: ISV negative and every tick yields large gains in stuff
i enjoy these film sessions by ottavino.
here, he spotlights yamamoto’s two splitter variants— a harder SI-like kind for GBs, and a larger-form kind for chases. for all the hype on splitters, their versatility remains an underrated feature.
https://t.co/hVfQW0z6Qz
I was able to face non other than Myself thanks to a $500,000 Trajekt machine at @DrivelineBB
Technology on it is absolutely incredible.
Full YT video: https://t.co/taQOvW4fm0