MarginValue

[Zigpull @zigpull]

Polycab has returned ~421% over the last 5Y.

Most investors will look at revenue growth.

But revenue growth alone doesn't create multi-baggers.

it combined:
• 61.5% promoter holding
• Cash flows (CFO)
• Solid reinvestment into future capacity

https://t.co/xsLqvoY6aC

[Zigpull @zigpull]

One of the most useful signals is not what a company earns.

It's what investors are willing to pay for those earnings and revenues.

Castings Forgings is now trading at a P/S ratio of 8.36x, highest level in 5Y.

The business may deserve a premium.

The market is assigning one.

[Zigpull @zigpull]

Capital rarely moves one stock at a time.

It moves through industries, themes, and cycles.

Over the past year, some of India's strongest performance came from Copper, Dredging ...

The question isn't what outperformed.

It's what changed.
https://t.co/cPE1OqbCc4

[Zigpull @zigpull]

Every investment ultimately comes down to one question:

What does the market believe that might be wrong?

In TCS:
• Price near 52W lows
• P/B near 5Y lows
• P/S near 5Y lows
• Dividend yield above 5%

The market is clearly sending a message.

https://t.co/KTvvjCfDQm

[Zigpull @zigpull]

U.S. Consumer Sentiment: 49.8

The lowest reading in the history of the University of Michigan survey.

Consumer confidence often leads spending, growth expectations, and market sentiments.

Investors shouldn't ignore global macro signals: https://t.co/BovvYUZ3ZX

[Zigpull @zigpull]

Markets ultimately reward businesses that can do two things simultaneously: Grow faster than peers. Earn higher returns than peers.

Polycab is a case study.

M Cap:
₹10J Cr (Oct '19)
→ ₹150K Cr Now

Growth leadership and profitability leadership rarely go unnoticed for long.

[Zigpull @zigpull]

TCS. Infosys. HCLTech. Wipro.

Great companies.

Negative 5Y returns.

The market is NOW asking:

What happens when AI writes code, automates workflows, and reduces the need for human effort?

Most investors study the company.

Few study what could disrupt the company.

[Zigpull @zigpull]

A simple query can save investors years of hardship.

Bajaj Housing Finance is down more than 50% from its post-listing peak.

The business didn't fail.

The valuation did.

What is already priced into the stock?

[Zigpull @zigpull]

Hindsight bias is dangerous in investing.

Looking at Apar today, the path seems obvious.

But what if utilization never ramped?

What if competitors added capacity?

Every winner looks inevitable after the fact.

It wasn't obvious then.

Stress-test the assumptions ...

[Zigpull @zigpull]

Most investors screen for:

✓ Revenue growth
✓ EPS growth
But future multibaggers often reveal themselves elsewhere.

I would rather see:

→ EBITDA/ton guidance
→ Export approvals
→ Capacity expansion
→ Premium product mix rising
→ Large customers validating the product

[Zigpull @zigpull]

Apar Industries returned ~29x in 5 years.

The obvious explanation:

"India capex cycle."

The better explanation:
• Export mix rose sharply
• Premium products replaced commodity products
• EBITDA/ton expanded
• Capacity was built ahead of demand

[Zigpull @zigpull]

The US 10Y Treasury yield has breached 4.5%.

Most commentary may focus on valuations.

We asked Ray Dalio AI a different question:

"US10Y has breached 4.50%; what could be the biggest threat to the markets?"

Its answer: A credit-stress cascade, a chain reaction ...

[Zigpull @zigpull]

5Y ago, investors viewed companies like TCS, HDFC Life, and Wipro as safe compounders.

• Stable revenue growth
• Strong profitability
• Healthy cash flows

Recently, markets appear to be questioning that narrative.

Many now trade near their 5Y P/B lows.

[Zigpull @zigpull]

Most investors ask:

"Will ICICI Bank give me a good return?"

Few ask:

"What could stop it from doing so?"

Credit quality. Liquidity. Cybersecurity. Governance. Culture.

The path to superior returns often starts by identifying how they could disappear.

#ICICIBANK

[Zigpull @zigpull]

We asked our Charlie Munger AI:

"@Rajesh Exports Ltd what looks suspicious or shady to you?"

The AI's FIRST red flag:

"Management-certified unaudited subsidiary accounts."

We later compared its analysis with SEBI's interim order.

The overlap was difficult to ignore.

Thread.

[Zigpull @zigpull]

October '19

Caplin and Laurus were both ~₹3.6K Cr market cap companies.

June '26:

• Laurus: ~₹75K Cr
• Caplin: ~₹17K Cr

A staggering divergence in shareholder returns.

What's surprising?

Caplin actually grew faster.

5Y Revenue CAGR:

• Caplin: ~11%
• Laurus: ~6%

[MarginValue @marginvalue]

Yesterday, more than 200 stocks, including #IndusInd Bank and #IDFCBank, hit their 52-week lows, a sort of record not seen in several months.

However, recently there have been several weeks in which stocks were hitting their 52-week lows in tens and twenties, indicating a sort of market top.

#stockmarketscrash

[MarginValue @marginvalue]

Even as IndusInd Bank grapples with forex derivatives irregularities, potentially reducing its net worth by ~2.35%, the shareholding pattern reveals:

1/ FIIs sold the most in the Dec '24 quarter, bringing their holding to the lowest level since Sep '22.

2/ DIIs bought the most in the Dec '24 quarter, raising their holding to the highest level since Sep '22.

#IndusInd

[MarginValue @marginvalue]

Gensol Engineering - A 101 on high percentage of promoter share pledging

A high percentage of promoter share pledging is a major red flag because it signals financial distress and governance risks. These are the reasons:

1/ Risk of Forced Selling – If the stock price drops, lenders may sell pledged shares, leading to a further price collapse.

2/ Promoters' Stake Dilution – If promoters fail to repay, lenders can sell their shares, reducing promoter ownership and control.

3/ Cash Flow Issues – It suggests the company is struggling to generate enough cash and is relying on pledged shares for funding. Check the CFO.

To make matters worse, corporate governance concerns have surfaced.

A credit rating report flagged that Gensol allegedly falsified debt service records, raising serious liquidity issues.

The stock has cracked 73% of its 52-week high.

#gensolengineering

[MarginValue @marginvalue]

A major adverse event isn’t necessary to trigger a meltdown in asset prices.

It can unfold suddenly, catching the unsuspecting off guard.

The current downturn is a perfect example.

#stockmarketcrash