Most people don't realize how big of a growth wave we are currently experiencing.
So far, with 88% of S&P 500 companies reporting earnings, the index has posted +50.4% growth in earnings year-over-year.
To put this into perspective, the already astronomical expectation of +23.1% growth has been more than doubled.
This will mark the 2nd consecutive quarter of earnings growth above +25% and the 7th consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth for the S&P 500.
The last time growth was this strong was in Q2 2021 as the US economy emerged from the pandemic and $4+ trillion in stimulus was handed out.
We are arguably in the midst of the biggest technological revolution in US history.
The data is absolutely insane.
What is happening here?
Over the last 48 days, the US Federal Debt has surged by +$1 TRILLION, or +$21 billion PER DAY.
Since August 11th, the US has added +$200 billion in debt.
Why is US government spending running at WW2 levels in a "strong" economy?
(a thread)
China has spent 7 yrs making "bad economic choices" to prepare itself for decoupling it has anticipated since 2018.
It has diversified trade partners.
Deflated stock & real estate bubble
Punished big tech & encouraged new startups
Drove industrial policy in new emerging sectors.
All While US big tech remain heavily dependent on sales in China, even if the direct export data don't show it, bc the chips & equipment are imported elsewhere.
Aside from Lenovo, China Inc really doesn't depend on US sales due to existing fears in US about Chinese spying.
I first pointed out that we’re in Cold War II back in 2018. But it only recently struck me that in this new Cold War, we—and not the Chinese—might be the Soviets. 1/13 https://t.co/Zwxj3ChLLb
.@radeksikorski setting the record straight at the un security council today. on the 2nd anniversary of the russian invasion of ukraine, an essential watch. please take the time.
Με τον σοσιαλισμό να θεωρείται πρόδρομος του ουτοπικού οράματος μιας αταξικής, ακρατικής κοινωνίας γνωστής ως κομμουνισμός, είναι κρίσιμο να κατανοήσουμε γιατί ο κομμουνισμός, ως ιδανική τελική κατάσταση, παραμένει ένας ανέφικτος στόχος, ριζωμένος στους εγγενείς περιορισμούς και την προορισμένη αποτυχία του ίδιου του σοσιαλισμού.
Ο σοσιαλισμός, στις διάφορες εφαρμογές του, επιδιώκει να αναδι��νείμει τον πλούτο και τον έλεγχο των μέσων παραγωγής από το κράτος ή την κοινότητα ως σύνολο.
Ωστόσο, αυτή η προσέγγιση παραβιάζει την ανθρώπινη φύση και τα κίνητρα που απαιτούνται για την οικονομική παραγωγικότητα και την καινοτομία.
Η απουσία δικαιωμάτων ιδιωτικής ιδιοκτησίας και ο συγκεντρωτισμός των οικονομικών αποφάσεων οδηγεί σε αναποτελεσματικότητα, λανθασμένη κατανομή πόρων και συχνά, έλλειψη κινήτρων μεταξύ των ατόμων για αριστεία και καινοτομία.
Αυτά τα συστημικά ζητήματα όχι μόνο εμποδίζουν την οικονομική ανάπτυξη και ευημερία, αλλά δημιουργούν επίσης γραφειοκρατική αναποτελεσματικότητα και διαφθορά, καθώς η συγκέντρωση εξουσίας στον κρατι��ό μηχανισμό οδηγεί συχνά σε κατάχρηση και κακοδιαχείριση.
Η αποτυχία του σοσιαλισμού να δημιουργήσει ένα βιώσιμο οικονομικό σύστημα που ευημερεί αποκλείει τη μετάβαση στον κομμουνισμό.
Χωρίς μια επιτυχημένη σοσιαλιστική φάση που διασφαλίζει την οικονομική ζωτικότητα και τον υποτιθέμενο μαρασμό του κράτους, το όραμα της κομμουνιστικής κοινωνίας, που βασίζεται στην αφθονία και την απουσία ταξικής πάλης, δεν μπορεί να υλοποιηθεί.
Οι ιστορικές προσπάθειες εφαρμογής του σοσιαλισμού οδήγησαν σε οικονομική ύφεση, κοινωνική αναταραχή και σε πολλές περιπτώσεις, αυταρχική διακυβέρνηση για τη διατήρηση του συστήματος, καταδεικνύοντας περαιτέρω την πρακτική αδυναμία επίτευξης μιας αληθινής κομμουνιστικής κοινωνίας.
Το ιδανικό του κομμ��υνισμού αποτυγχάνει γιατί αγνοεί την πολυπλοκότητας της ανθρώπινης συμπεριφοράς και εφαρμόζει λανθασμένα οικονομικά κίνητρα. Επίσης αποτυγχάνει γιατί δεν ευνοεί τη ευημερία μέσω της προώθησης της καινοτομίας που επιτυχγάνουν οι μηχανισμοί της ελεύθερης αγοράς.
Take a good look at this map. Crete, Rhodes, Lesvos, Chios, Samos all consumed by Turkey. Α fever dream of extremists or Turkey’s official policy? Another provocation or the true goal?
President Erdogan must make his position clear on his junior coalition partner's latest antics.
I thought @elonmusk’s interview with @andrewrsorkin was one of the great interviews ever. Musk is a free speech absolutist which I respect. I think he is entirely correct that he and @X are treated unfairly and inconsistently by advertisers.
@tiktok_us@instagram@facebook and others have enormous amounts of problematic content, antisemitic and otherwise, but the advertisers don’t boycott those platforms.
Musk is targeted because the other media organizations view @X as a competitor and any time his name is in an article about controversies, it draws clicks. MSM is incentivized to attack him as it actually drives attention to their sites and therefore more revenues. It is these attack articles by other media organizations that put pressure on the @Disney’s of the world to stop advertising on X.
If Bob Iger would carefully examine the facts, he would likely continue to advertise on X, but Disney caves to public pressure rather than do the right thing. Meanwhile Disney invests heavily on TikTok, likely alongside videos of kids teaching other teenagers to be anorexic and worse. I am sure Nelson Peltz can fix this when he joins the Disney board.
X presents the opportunity for advertisers to access an incredible global audience that is not available elsewhere. And it is cheap compared to other alternatives because of current circumstances.
On Musk and antisemitism:
After examining the facts, it was clear to me that Musk did not have antisemitic intent when he responded with the ‘actual truth’ tweet, and further clarified thereafter.
I thought he made what he meant extremely clear in the @andrewrsorkin interview, namely, that Jews are drawn to support ‘oppressed’ groups and causes through various non-profits due to our history of being an oppressed minority.
Musk points out correctly that a number of these organizations and their members support Hamas. And he is correct in saying that Jews should rethink support for organizations that seek their elimination.
Many Jews are doing that right now.
To use a Muskism, Earth is fortunate that @X is owned by an individual that is largely insulated from financial and other influence. That said, perhaps some form of very carefully governed trust would be a better forever owner than any individual.
@PershingSqFdn invested in the Twitter privatization in support of free speech. Whether we make a profit on our investment is not important to us as we never intend to sell our interest.
I am more inclined to like and support companies that advertise on the platform because I appreciate their support for free speech. I have actually bought products I learned about from ads on @X. I can’t think of another example of my responding to direct advertising other than on X.
Unfortunately, recent (and society’s long-term experience) with non-profit governance, see @OpenAI, certain private universities etc. should not give anyone confidence that a traditional non-profit would be a better owner of X than Musk.
Perhaps some day the ownership of X should be distributed to each American, one share for each American during their lives and one for each person born, with a charter which permanently vests the free speech principles by which it operates.
Until then, we all should be grateful that X is owned by Musk.
When Albert Einstein met Charlie Chaplin in 1931, Einstein said, "What I admire most about your art is its universality. You do not say a word, and yet the world understands you." "It's true." Replied Chaplin, "But your fame is even greater. The world admires you, when no one understands you."