Mario Vanella

Global Chief Economist at ORC, Dubai. RT ≠ endorsement. Opinions are my own

[Dr David Robert Grimes @drg1985]

60 years ago today on the 27th October 1962, human life on Earth came the closest it has ever come to a terrible ending. Everyone alive today owes their life to this handsome devil, and most of us don't even know his name. Let's change that - a thread 🧵

[Inconvenient Truths — Jennifer Zeng Reports @jenniferzeng97]

This is huge. Don't know how this will end. Henan bank is NOT the only one that is having problems with liquidity. All four Chinese banks are having the same issue. Some depositors found they can save and can NOT withdraw money with their bank cards.
#bankrun #China #CCP

[Alex Mas @AMLabEcon]

Normally I would not be posting personal developments on this website, but in this case I have a pressing concern. My dad, Spanish economist Andreu Mas-Colell, is dealing with an incredibly difficult and unjust situation. 1/

[Mario Vanella @MarioVanella]

@Claudia_Sahm Very good observations

[China Beige Book @ChinaBeigeBook]

Industry's problems go FAR beyond lack of comparative expertise. Most institutions "offering" #China analysis are wholly compromised by their need to appease Beijing for larger profit goals, be it mkt access or merely ⬆️slices of priv wealth, asset mgmt or underwriting pies

1/6

[Alberto Gallo @macrocredit]

How much have EU countries paid or received from the EU?

Eighteen years of data show the money has been flowing from West to East, not North to South

(Source: https://t.co/mgzapzWGDl)

[Vitor Constâncio @VMRConstancio]

Economics is indeed struggling with inflation theory. Monetary aggregates and monetarism have been correctly abandoned. Domestic slack explanations (the Phillips curve) have been under attack but are still a bit alive...1/n

[Mario Vanella @MarioVanella]

Class: Taxes on stupid rich 101. Open all year long.

[Mario Vanella @MarioVanella]

Very good thread

[alberto bisin @albertobisin]

Interesting discussion these days about various versions of this figure (this one is taken from the NYTimes). 1/n

[Mario Vanella @MarioVanella]

2/

Still credit has never been so tight since 2014 (graph), and unemployment will not magically disappear.

As a result the demand that has been bottled up until now will be satisfied. In a second moment downward pressure will hit real-estate prices

[Mario Vanella @MarioVanella]

1/
Two graphs that tell a very important story: pent-up real estate demand rebounded strongly after the lockdown.

Considering the logistic of the lockdown, this situation is easily understandable

[Mario Vanella @MarioVanella]

Millennials have neen disproportionally affected by the last 3 crisis. This one is no different

[Mario Vanella @MarioVanella]

This is Important to follow: 30-day delinquencies on credit card debt
(Big jump in retail store cards)

[Mario Vanella @MarioVanella]

Mi pare ci sia enorme confusione e che si parli a caso. Ancora. Nonostante tutti i documenti disponibili.

Pazzesco

[Valerio Valentini @valentinivaler]

Mariana Mazzucato boccia il Mes come "problematico" e "recessivo" (anche se non sembra molto aggiornata su ciò che è oggi il Mes). Essendo lei la consulente economica di Palazzo Chigi, dobbiamo dunque concludere che il premier Conte condivide questo giudizio sul Mes? Il PD lo sa?

[Mario Vanella @MarioVanella]

This is the kind of stuff that makes me worry

[MarketWatch @MarketWatch]

Warren Buffett is ‘an idiot,’ says investor who claims daytrading is ‘the easiest game I’ve ever played’ https://t.co/eyC0cej4lw

[Mario Vanella @MarioVanella]

Total decoupling

[Mario Vanella @MarioVanella]

Translation:
- May unemployment rate stands at 16.3% (not 13.3%)

- 4.7 million workers were considered employed, but are in fact unemployed

[Joshua Steiner @HedgeyeFIG]

This morning's reported Unemployment Rate appears to be understated by ~300 bps due to BLS classification errors.

[Mario Vanella @MarioVanella]

Interesting move but with expected lower demand there is a good chance that Chinese SMEs use this credit in an unproductive way (studies show that incentives to behave in this fashion increase during a crisis).

We'll see if that's indeed the case observing the NPLs in 2021

[Tracy Alloway @tracyalloway]

China's central bank rolls out a new small business lending program. Interestingly, unlike the PPP, Chinese banks will assume the risks of loans sold under the program and need to repay all of the 400 billion yuan ($56 billion) after a year.

https://t.co/EAwuAdvtJ8

[Mario Vanella @MarioVanella]

China manufacturing PMI slightly above 50. But new export orders was very low, at 35.3.

Very sharp decrease from a month ago. Once again, global demand is still weak.

#PMI #China

[Mario Vanella @MarioVanella]

@MareikeOhlberg Agreed. The trade deal was dead at birth